The UCF Knights (14-9, 5-6 AAC) visit Memphis to take on the Tigers (14-10, 5-6 AAC) in a game that will likely be low scoring. The game can be seen on CBS Sports Network at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 11, 2018.
UCF Knights at Memphis Tigers ATS Prediction
The last time the Knights played, they were dismantled by the No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats, 77-40. Cincinnati’s rebounding was their largest strength. The Bearcats had more offensive rebounds (17 vs. six), defensive rebounds (31 vs. 25) and total rebounds (48 vs. 31). Ceasar DeJesus led UCF in scoring with 12 points on 4-for-7 shooting.
The Tigers lost big to the No. 22 Wichita State Shockers in their last matchup, 85-65. Wichita State’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Memphis. The Shockers had a rate of 9.6 (better than their season average of 14.6), while the Tigers posted a mark of 23.5 (above their season average of 17.3). With 12 points, Memphis’ Kareem Brewton Jr. had a good game.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the NCAA’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Memphis ranks 293rd in possessions per game (67.2) and UCF is 335th (65.4). Also, the Knights’ fifth-ranked defense (opponents’ effective field goal percentage of 0.443) will clash against the Tigers’ 284th-ranked offense (effective field goal percentage of 0.489).
UCF holds records of 14-9 straight up (SU) and 10-8 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Knights have a tendency to go under the total (72.2 percent).
Meanwhile, Memphis is 14-10 SU and 8-12-1 ATS. Much like UCF, games including the Tigers have finished under the projected point total 52.4 percent of the time.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. A.J. Davis scored a game-high 16 points in the first game, in which the Knights defeated the Tigers 65-56, covering as 8-point favorites. He also had 11 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 121 points, which was just 5 points below the projected point total of 126 points. The Knights had a much better free throw rate (0.413 vs. 0.176) and had a better turnover percentage (15.6 vs. 20.5).
UCF Knights vs. Memphis Tigers ATS Pick
College Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Memphis, ATS Winner – Memphis, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, UCF is 5-5 ATS with 8 unders and 2 overs.
At home, Memphis is 5-6-1 ATS with 7 unders and 5 overs.
Memphis ranks 52nd in blocks per game (4.3) while UCF ranks 175th in blocks allowed per game (4.3).
The Tigers rank 204th in assists per game (12.6) while the Knights rank 265th (10.9).
Memphis ranks 250th in three pointers attempted per game (18.8) while UCF ranks 294th (16.1).
The Tigers average 6.2 steals per game, which ranks 127th in the NCAA. The Knights rank 165th in steals allowed per game (6.8).
UCF ranks 91st in rebounds per game (37.1) while Memphis ranks 99th in rebounds allowed per game (33.7).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, UCF is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Memphis is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Knights have been outscored by an average of 9.8 points in their last five games. For the season, UCF has defeated opponents by an average of 1.5 points.
During their last five games, the Tigers have scored an average of 67.0 points per game (3.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 74.6 points per game (3.7 above their season average).
