The No.10-seeded Tulane Green Wave play the No.7-seeded UCF Knights in the first round of the AAC tournament at the Amway Center. Action begins at 6:00 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 10 and can be seen on ESW and ES3.
The Knights got blown out by Connecticut 67-46 the last time they played. Tacko Fall was the game’s leading scorer, recording 13. The Green Wave, meanwhile, are coming off a 64-56 loss against Temple in their last game. Malik Morgan led the team in scoring with 16 points.
The UCF defense should have a clear edge in terms of eFG%. It ranks 29th in the nation in forcing misses (opponents’ eFG% of 47.3%), while the Tulane offense is 329th with a mark of 45.4%. Moreover, foul-shooting opportunities could prove to be quite rare for the Green Wave. They are 321st in the nation in FTA rate (30.8), while the Knights are among the nation’s least foul-prone teams (allowing a rate of just 25.2, ranking fourth in the country).
The Knights have emerged victorious in both contests against the Green Wave this year, including a decisive 73-65 victory in their last matchup. Fall put up a double-double in the victory with 17 points and 13 rebounds.
The Knights enter the game with records of 12-17 Straight Up (SU) and 18-10 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 2-7-1 ATS. Opposing offenses have been stifled by the Knights, allowing a field goal percentage of only .416.
On the other side, the Green Wave have 10-21 SU and 9-15-2 ATS records. Teams don’t seem to hit many three-pointers against the Green Wave, who are 21st in the country in terms of three-point field goals allowed at 194 this season.
The Knights’ win over Tulane in their last game moved their SU record against Tulane to 10-0 over their most recent meetings. Additionally, UCF holds the advantage ATS with a record of 9-0-1. Tulane held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once, while UCF was never able to do so in their most recent five games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tulane, ATS Winner – Tulane
Notes
In its last game, UCF lost by a margin of 21 points. Tulane is 3-5 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. UCF has a 2-5 record in blowouts.
The UCF Knights have a defensive rating of 105.2 (ranked 74th), while the Tulane Green Wave have an offensive rating of 96.4 (ranked 320th).
UCF has an average field goal percentage of 43.2%. Tulane is an underachieving 2-13 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Tulane Green Wave rank lower for their field goal percentage (336th) than their effective field goal percentage (329th), while the UCF Knights rank the same for both metrics (219th).
UCF, the 41st-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 4.7 per game. Tulane does worse, ranked 102nd with 4.0.
UCF ranks 32nd in defensive rebounding. When it comes to offensive rebounds, Tulane ranks 67th.
UCF has forced an average turnover percentage of 13.5% this season. Tulane has a losing 9-16 record when its TO% is 13.5% or higher.
