Two schools that like to deploy their running games, the Cal Golden Bears (-8) are set to host their in-conference nemesis UCLA Bruins in Berkeley. Pac-12 Networks is scheduled to broadcast the action and the game gets underway at 7:00 p.m. ET.
UCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears Betting Preview
In this Saturday Pac-12 game, California is projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 8 points. The Bruins are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Golden Bears are -330. There could be some good in-game betting scenarios in this matchup.
The disappointing Bruins are down 9.3 units so far in 2018 and 2-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 2-3. The Golden Bears are down 0.1 units this season. The team is 1-3-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-3.
The Bruins have gone 0-5 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against Pac-12 opponents. The Golden Bears are 3-2 SU overall and 0-2 SU in conference play.
The Bruins came up short to Washington 31-24 in a matchup where Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed 27 passes on 38 attempts for 272 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Joshua Kelley (125 yards on 20 rush attempts, one TD) led the running attack while Theo Howard (nine receptions, 60 yards, one TD) and Caleb Wilson (eight catches, 102 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
On October 6, Arizona knocked off this California team by a score of 24-17. The Golden Bears defense let the Wildcats rush for 124 yards on 34 attempts. J.J. Taylor had a productive showing in the win, posting 73 rushing yards on 15 attempts for Arizona. For California, Brandon McIlwain completed 32-of-43 passes for 315 yards and three interceptions. McIlwain (107 yards on 20 rush attempts, two TDs) and Patrick Laird (54 yards on 14 carries) spearheaded the running game as Moe Ways (eight receptions, 97 yards) and Laird (eight catches, 34 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
UCLA has run the ball on 51.1 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 43.0 percent across possessions in conference play. California has a rush percentage of 54.0 percent, and has kept it on the ground 50.3 percent of the time when facing Pac-12 opponents. The Bruins have rushed for 139 yards/game (including 151 per game against Pac-12 opponents) and have six touchdowns on the ground this year. The Golden Bears are totaling 188 rush yards per game (201 in conference) and have seven total rushing TDs.
The Bruins offensive scheme has averaged 195 yards in the air overall (205 per game versus conference opposition) and has five passing TDs so far. The Golden Bears have produced 222 pass yards per outing (250.5 in the Pac-12) and have eight total pass scores.
UCLA has allowed opponents to run for an average of 186 yards and pass for 244 yards per game. The California defense has allowed 175.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 155.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Golden Bears are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.89 to opposing QBs, while the Bruins have allowed a 7.67 ANY/A.
Offensively, Thompson-Robinson has put up 794 passing yards this year, and has completed 60 percent of his 113 attempts with four scores through the air and three interceptions. He’s got a 5.50 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.25 over the last two games.
Look for a balanced attack offensively from UCLA in this one. Joshua Kelley, Caleb Wilson and Demetric Felton have combined for 512 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns over the last two outings.
In the hosts’ locker room, Brandon McIlwain has completed 43-of-60 passes for 417 yards, one TD and three INTs. McIlwain’s ANY/A sits at 4.60 for the year and 3.13 over his last two outings.
We also expect the California offense to spread its attack this Saturday. Brandon McIlwain, Patrick Laird and Moe Ways have combined for 526 total yards and four touchdowns over the last couple of games.
When these two programs met last year, UCLA won by a field goal 30-27.
RELATED: Week 7 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Pick: UCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears
SU Winner – California, ATS Winner – California
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The UCLA D has sacked opposing quarterbacks nine times this season. California has produced seven sacks.
The California offense has lost five fumbles this season while the UCLA offense has lost two.
Each team has produced three pass plays of 40+ yards. The Bruins have have made four pass plays of 30+ yards while the Golden Bears have accounted for three such plays.
The UCLA defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while California has given up three such plays.
The UCLA offense has created five rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while California has created three such runs.
The Bruins defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Golden Bears have given up five such runs.
California was the underdog by 2 points in its previous outing and the O/U going into it was 57. The under cashed and California did not cover in the team’s 24-17 defeat to Arizona.
Over its last three matchups, UCLA is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
UCLA was the underdog by 22 points in its last game and the Over/Under was 53.5. The over cashed and UCLA covered in the 31-24 loss to Washington.
UCLA has produced 4.88372093023256 yards per carry over its past three outings and 5.5 over its last two.
California has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.4 over its past two.
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