The UFC 178 card scheduled for Las Vegas, Nevada on September 27th has a new main event, as Flyweight Champion Demetrious Johnson will take on Chris Cariaso in a 5 round bout. The bout was to serve as a co-main event for the UFC 177 card, but has been moved when the original main event featuring Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier had to be postponed. The lines posted for 177 had Johnson an astronomical (-1425) favorite, while Cariaso returned (+675). Don’t expect the line to change much because of the move.
Johnson is known as the UFC’s worst drawing champion, though he has been dominant in his weight class since coming down from the Bantamweight division. He wil lhave some help with the draw at 178, as the UFC had put together a strong offering that includes the Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor grudge match, as well as the return of former bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, who fights Takeya Mizugaki.
Cariaso also dropped down from Bantamweight, and he will be fighting for the 11th time under the UFC flag, owning a 7-3 record overall . At 135 lbs, he owns a win over Takeya Mizugaki, but back to back losses sent him down a weight class to Flyweight. In a division without a lot of talent, Cariaso’s three wins in a row at Flyweight qualify him for a title shot. In his last outing, he was less than overwhelmingly impressive, as he earned a Split Decision over Louis Smolka, a newcomer in only his second UFC fight.
In this weight class, the technical level as well as the speed and pace of the fight might work in Cariaso’s favor. If he can create a chaotic fight where a lot happens, he might be able to slip in something offensive that takes Johnson out. The fact is that if you bet enough of these wide underdogs among the lower weight classes, one of them may eventually come through (remember TJ Dillashaw). The chances of an upset are better in the smaller weight classes, simply because the fights are more frenetic and more opportunities are created.
This doesn’t mean Johnson isn’t going to win. How long before we hear the talk of Johnson in a superfight. I bet Ronda Rousey could beat him 😉
