The UFC starts 2016 with a bang when Robbie Lawler’s welterweight title gets put on the line against the long-time contender and fan-favorite Carlos Condit. While this match up is enough to get MMA excited about UFC 195, one can look further down the card at the prelims for more intriguing match ups and UFC 195 odds. Most noticeably, Joe Duffy and Dustin Poirier will headline their segment on Fight Pass in a rescheduled bout meant for Fight Night: Dublin. In addition, former bantamweight contender Michael “Mayday” McDonald returns in the headlining prelim bout on Fox Sports 1. These UFC 195 prelims are not to be missed! Read on for UFC 195 odds and predictions.
Scott Holtzman (-160) vs. Drew Dober (+135)
Starting the action off on Fox Sports 1 is a lightweight tilt between the undefeated Scott Holtzman and 5-time UFC veteran Drew Dober. Holtzman brings a promising record of 8-0 into his second UFC outting, and has shown a well-rounded skill set thus far with 3 TKOs, 2 submissions, and 3 decisions to his credit. Dober on the other hand needs a win as he looks to rebound from a first-round guillotine loss to Efrain Escuder. Skill-wise, I think Dober has potential to rise up the ranks; he has solid muay thai and an opportunistic ground game with 9 submissions to his credit. However, he has yet to really settle into his own and live up to his potential. Holtzman’s wrestling and takedown game will most likely give Dober some problems, but look for Dober to hold his own on the ground and fighting back to his feet. On the feet, I favor Dober as he tends to throw with the cleaner technique. Ultimately, I think this will be a very close fight that will come down to the wire. While Dober may be the underdog in these UFC 195 odds, I’ll take him by a competitive split decision.
Justine Kish (-260) vs. Nina Ansaroff (+215)
In the event’s only female bout, the undefeated Justine Kish will take American Top Team representative, Nina Ansaroff. Kish, currently 4-0, trains at Black House MMA, and has shown some impressive muay thai-based striking skills. She’s very big for the strawweight division, and very athletic as well – this should help her whenever she ties up with Ansaroff. Even though Kish is hittable on the feet, she has shown a good chin and comfor in the pocket. Ansaroff on the other hand is a pressure-fighter who likes to blitz her opponents with punching combinations before trying to get the fight to the ground. I see Ansaroff running into counters, and failing to take the fight to the ground. If Kish can’t score the take TKO, expect her to pick up a one-sided unanimous decision.
Kyle Noke (-290) vs. Alex Morono (+240)
Coming in with quite a bit of momentum, the Australian Kyle Noke meets UFC newcomer, former LFC welterweight champion, and late-replacement Alex Morono. In his last bout, Noke looked the best he has ever looked when he put Peter Sobotta away with a snap kick to the body. Look for him to show similar weapons against Morono, and continue to keep things diverse. Morono will look to get the fight to the ground and display some of his patented ground and pound. While I think Morono is a surprisingly bad match up for Kyle Noke, I think the Octagon-jitters are definitely worth taking into account. Plus, the momentum Noke picked up with his ultra-impressive win is nothing to deny either. I’ll take Noke by a decision as he picks up where he left off against Sobotta. Look for Noke to stay mobile, light on his feet, and land shots from the outside while avoiding takedowns as much as possible en route to a unanimous decision win.
Michael McDonald (-525) vs. Masanori Kanehara (+405)
In his highly anticipated return, former bantamweight contender Michael “Mayday” McDonald steps in as a heavy favorite against Japan’s Masanori Kanehara to headline the UFC 195 prelims on Fox Sports 1. While McDonald is the heaviest favorite in all the UFC 195 odds, it’s important not to count out Masanori Kanehara and to look at a huge x-factor in this bout – McDonald’s long lay-off. We’ve seen champion caliber talent dwindled by long lay-offs and ring rust, and the very same could happen to McDonald. When viewing this bout objectively, it does favor McDonald who is a power-striker with the ability to stop any man at 135 lbs. Kanehara on the other hand is an athletic grappling talent known for his craftiness on the ground. He has a strong submission game, but whether or not he can get McDonald down will be the question. I favor Kanehara the longer the fight goes, but because Kanehara has 7 decisions, I’m not confident in his ability to finish McDonald on the mat. Instead, expect McDonald to make a successful return as he swarms Kanehara early. McDonald’s aggression and power combination can put any man away; if he resembles anything similar to the Michael McDonald from 2 years ago, then it’ll be an early TKO for McDonald. If not, expect this to go 3 rounds which could result in a shocking upset decision for Kanehara. I think the first option is most realistic.
