I’ll be going over all the UFC 196 prelims to set us up for what should be an epic night of fights.
It’s the big one – UFC 196. All the drama, twists, and turns that we’ve had to endure in the lead up to this event will finally conclude Saturday. The card is definitely top heavy though. The UFC has put two of their biggest stars on the same card, and in turn left the rest of the card a little bare. That being said, a well-informed audience member can find entertainment is virtually any MMA contest. You just need to know what to look for. Here we go.
Julian Erosa vs. Teruto Ishihara
Action opens up with TUF 22 contestent Julian Erosa and a TUF finalist in Teruto Ishihara. This should definitely be an entertaining, fast-paced bout as both guys are susceptible to being drawn into fire fights. With that said, Erosa is known for his crafty footwork and awkward tempos. Jaggard movements lead his hit-and-run style, but his defense has often suffered as he hasn’t quite figured out how to enter and not get clipped on the way in. Erosa is an athletic guy who is strong in the clinch as well, but Ishihara is a powerhouse himself and hits very hard. Ishihara has a majority of his wins by KO, and seeing as how Erosa is prone to running into shots, there is a high likelihood that Ishihara walks away with a finish. That is, unless Erosa can impose his athleticism on Ishihara, grind him down in the clinch, and maybe work some jiu-jitsu.
Justin Salas vs. Jason Saggo
Neither of these men entered the Octagon at all during 2015, and will both be returning here at UFC 196 after long lay-offs. Salas is 3-3 in the UFC while Saggo sits at 1-1. Look for this to be a very evenly matched contest. That being said, it’s hard to tell how these two have improved and grown. A year is a very long time in the world of MMA, and it’s likely that Salas and Saggo are much farther along in their MMA evolution than when we last saw them. Saggo will be stepping in as the taller, longer fighter, and will most certainly want to get the fight to the floor. Saggo tirelessly works for opportunities on the ground, and even though Salas is a solid wrestler, I think Saggo’s length will give him weapons on the mat that Salas can’t defend against. This should be an evenly matched bout that heavily takes place in the clinch and on the floor.
Diego Sanchez vs. Jim Miller
I’m a little surprised these two haven’t crossed paths yet in their long UFC careers. Both Sanchez and Miller have had some serious ups throughout their MMA endeavors, and some serious downs. Most recently, both Sanchez and Miller are 1-3 in their last 4 bouts, and neither have really evolved their games much. If anything, Sanchez has de-evolved, and has turned into a crowd-pleaser rather than an ambitious competitor wanting to make a resurgence. That’s all fine though because Sanchez is nothing short of entertaining.
You know what you an expect from him too – stalking, forward pressure and forceful, brawling combinations. Miller on the other hand still fights with his brain; I have a feeling he will turn into the wily old veteran in the years to come if he isn’t now. Look for Sanchez to resort to his typical forward pressure, but run into Miller’s lead right hook and left hand all night long. There will be some ground exchanges, but for the most part I believe they will cancel each other out. Every second they spend brawling plays into Sanchez’s strengths, so Miller needs to be smart with his counters and be the more intelligent fighter. If he does this, he wins an easy decision being the smarter guy.
Darren Elkins vs. Chas Skelly
Elkins has shown to be a meat-and-potatoes wrestler while adding striking elements to his game. He has done well in the UFC too with his only losses being to Chad Mendes, Jeremy Stephens, and Hacran Dias. As of right now, I wouldn’t put Skelly in the same tier as those guys, but Skelly could be on the way. We last saw Skelly upsetting Edimilson Souza after enduring some serious punishment. We know Skelly is durable, but Elkins isn’t the type of guy that will inflict mass amounts of punishment on Skelly. Look for Elkins to try and thwart Skelly’s high-volume striking with consistent take down attempts. Skelly looks to be drastically improving his top game pressure, but we’ll see how his bottom game is after Elkins puts him on his back. Elkins should be the better wrestler, but Skelly has many offensive weapons on the mat that Elkins needs to watch out for. This should be a close contest, and I can see this resulting in a split decision for either Elkins or Skelly.
Vitor Miranda vs. Marcelo Guimaraes
Striking specialist Vitor Miranda takes on BJJ black belt Marcelo Guimaraes in this middleweight match up. Miranda smashed Clint Hester in his last bout while Guimaraes edged out Andy Enz. Neither man is a spectacular athlete, so this could be a slow, methodical fight. This may come down to whether or not Miranda can stop the takedown from Guimaraes who will definitely want this fight on the floor. Miranda can end the fight at anytime as he throws with exceptional power and ill intentions. That being said, it’s hard to do that off your back, let alone with a fantastic grappler like Guimaraes on top of you. I think this fight will either be a sudden KO win for Miranda, or a long, drawn-out, smothering performance by Guimaraes.
Erick Silva vs. Nordine Taleb
If this match up were made 3 years ago, I’d be safe picking Silva by a first round KO or submission. Silva is not the same white hot prospect that he once was (something, something USADA). However, this is still a fight he can win. Nordine Taleb trains out of Tri-Star and always puts on a workman-like performance. He embraces the grind, but doesn’t offer anything particularly threatening on the feet or the ground. Instead, he’s a physical fighter that does pretty well in any given situation. The longer the fight goes, the more potent Taleb’s game becomes. In the third round, Taleb’s otherwise non-threatening striking can finish the fight against a gassed Erick Silva. I’m hesitant to pick Silva in this match up because of how inconsistent he proved in the past. Taleb is also a massive welterweight who can weigh heavy in the clinch and on the ground. Yet, Silva has all the tools to win where ever the fight goes. I’m also not ruling out the possibility of Silva showcasing a much more patient, calculated game. Expect a fast and violent display from Silva, or a siphoning, grinding performance from Taleb.
Brandon Thatch vs. Siyar Bahadurzada
Capping off the UFC 196 prelims is a welterweight bout. Both Thatch and Bahadurzada come into this fight as being vicious, yet one-dimensional strikers. We saw Thatch batter a dwarfed Benson Henderson for the better part of their fight before being taken down and submitted with ease. He won’t have to worry about that against Bahadurzada; I’d even go as far to say that Thatch could impose his grappling on Siyar given how much bigger and stronger he should be. They both have the ability to end the fight quickly, but I favor Thatch’s approach. He has a karate base where he advances with unpredictability and precision versus Bahadurzada’s more simple-minded approach of winging hard shots – especially with a depleted gas tank. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Thatch impose some clinch or ground exchanges, weigh on Siyar a bit, and then take him out late in the fight. Another thing to note is that Thatch has been working with the new Elevation Fight Team in Colorado with Duane Ludwig.
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