Brock Lesnar vs Mark Hunt: The Spectacle Match Up
Few fighters have the ability to carry the weight of UFC 200 now with Jon Jones out of the main event. Brock Lesnar is one of these few. Unfortunately, he’s having to come back from nearly five years of retirement, and with an unknown level of preparation. To make matters worse, he’s fighting one of the most destructive heavyweight knockout artists in Mark Hunt.
This fight may not have any title implications behind it, but it’s a spectacle. A spectacle big enough to turn this chaotic UFC 200 event into a successful one.
Can Lesnar Win? Absolutely.
So a lot of us are wondering – what are Brock Lesnar’s chances of winning? His last two times out showed that freak athleticism is no substitute for striking smarts and grit. However, those losses were to a former champion (Cain Velasquez), and a future title challenger (Alistair Overeem, who challenges for the heavyweight belt at UFC 203). I don’t see Mark Hunt as being on that same level, so on paper this is a pretty winnable fight for Lesnar.
Clear Paths to Victory
Most analysts have labeled this fight as binary: there are two options. Either Brock Lesnar power doubles Hunt to the floor, and pounds him out for the TKO win, or Mark Hunt clobbers him with his devastating punching power. Anything outside of these two options is highly unlikely, but not out of question. Both scenarios could unfold at the same time, so let’s ask the question: who is better fit to handle adversity?
Adversity
If Lesnar runs into a Hunt right hand and gets stunned, he needs to be able to recover. This can happen via a takedown, or by disengaging, creating space, and clearing his head. Once he’s safe, he can simply try again, and be more mindful of the consequences.
Hunt on the other hand will face adversity if he gets taken down. In this situation, he needs to create space and scramble up to his feet. Keep in mind, Lesnar holds massive physical advantages. Working to his feet will tire Hunt out, and only make Lesnar’s takedowns easier to get from then on.
Once Hunt is up on his feet, he’s not out of the woods. Expect Lesnar to resort to chain wrestling, and stick to Hunt like glue. The battle could be lost if Hunt gets taken down, but even letting Lesnar clinch up with him could be the beginning of the end for ol’ Hunto.
Lesnar’s Reach
One thing to point out is Lesnar’s reach advantage. He will enter the Octagon as the much heavier, taller, and longer fighter. This means Lesnar can be as cautious on the outside as he wants. Mark Hunt is not known to be a pressure fighter. Rather than moving forward like a Cain Velasquez, he sits back and looks to time precise power shots. Lesnar can sit on the outside, use feints, and lull Hunt until he sees the opportunity to shoot. Given the questions surrounding Lesnar’s preparation, it’s likely we see a tentative start from him in this fight.
Lesnar’s Top Game
Once Lesnar chooses to blast forward and get the fight to the floor, it will be a real telling moment of the fight. Hunt has never been very stellar off of his back; he got beat up against Stipe Miocic and even submitted by the much smaller Gegard Mousasi several years ago.
Seeing as how a jiu-jitsu master like Frank Mir couldn’t figure out how to deal with Lesnar’s top game in their most recent fight, I have little hope for Hunt on the bottom. The only thing Hunt can hope for is that Lesnar is overly patient. We don’t know what type of shape Lesnar is in, and we don’t know how prepared he is for this fight. These doubts could cause Lesnar to hold back a bit even if he finds himself in a good spot.
Hunt’s Punches = Takedown Defense
All could be irrelevant if Hunt can land one of his sneaky, short hooks on Lesnar’s chin. Hunt’s lengthy kickboxing and MMA career means he gets comfortable quickly. Hunt is also exceptional at reading his opponent’s movements. In his last bout, Hunt tracked Frank Mir’s head even as it was sliding off the center line. Against Roy Nelson, Hunt anticipated the ducking movement of Nelson, and slammed the short uppercut home for a stellar KO win. If Lesnar isn’t smart about how he closes the distance, he could very well be running into that same shot.
In fact, that has happened before.
Shane Carwin blasted Brock Lesnar with an uppercut in the first round of their fight, and nearly finished him. Lesnar hung out just a little too long in range of Carwin’s punches, and covered up too predictably. Takedown defense in the form of punches is something Lesnar has struggled to deal with. Expect Mark Hunt to approach this fight with that in mind.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, this fight is a bit of a weird one. You can expect it to end in devastating fashion because of how destructive these men are in their respective backgrounds, but don’t rule out the possibility of a staring contest. Hunt’s knockout power will be respected by Lesnar, and Lesnar’s wrestling and athleticism will be respected by Hunt. You add in the magnitude of the event, and you have all the elements for a staring contest. I hope this isn’t the case, but you have to realize how little the margin of error is in this fight.
Like I said, this is a coin-flip of a fight though, and it’s all going to come down to whether or not Lesnar can avoid getting hit when coming in. Hunt isn’t the type that is going to set a very high pace, so Lesnar will have the time and space to set himself up for the right entry. Because of this, I’m siding with Lesnar. Once on top, I see no way Hunt can survive without at least gassing himself out. Of course, Hunt is more than capable of swatting Lesnar’s chin with a short hook and obliterating Lesnar’s hopes of a successful return.
Thank you for reading. Let’s go enjoy UFC 200!
