Who do you think will be fighting at UFC 200?
Any day now you can expect rumors to start floating in about UFC 200. Taking place in Las Vegas’s new T-Mobile Arena on July 9th, 2016, the UFC will be putting on the biggest UFC card of all time. At UFC 100, we had Brock Lesnar in the main event, Georges St. Pierre in the co-main, an Ultimate Fighter coaches showdown between Dan Henderson and Michael Bisping, and the long-awaited UFC debut of Yoshihiro Akiyama. The prelims even featured a young Jon Jones!
While there are lots of far-fetched predictions about UFC 200, I think we should prepare ourselves for two title fights – no more! The last time the UFC pulled off three title fights as back at UFC 33, and they all went the distance. This resulted in the broadcast running way over limit and being a huge flop. After all, the UFC needs match ups to carry the surrounding PPV events. UFC 201, UFC 202, and UFC 203 can’t be left without title fights as there aren’t many non-title holders that can carry a pay-per-view event.
So let’s speculate about UFC 200, shall we? Let’s begin by not thinking of who will be fighting, but who WON’T be fighting.
UFC 197 is just 11 weeks out from UFC 200, and is most likely too close for a turn-around. Thus, you can conclude that the light heavyweight and flyweight titles will not be up for grabs at UFC 200 as Jon Jones will be fighting Daniel Cormier and Demetrious Johnson will be fighting Henry Cejudo.
Furthermore, the heavyweight title will not be featured either as it will be contested for at UFC 198, and UFC 199 will feature both the middleweight championship and the bantamweight championship. Also, scheduled the night before is the women’s strawweight title fight between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha. This leaves us with: women’s bantamweight, featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight as possibilities for title fights.
Now, going off the logic that UFC 200 will only feature two title fights, you can begin to decipher through which ones it may be.
Conor McGregor is a near-lock for UFC 200. You can definitely count on the featherweight title being up for grabs as Conor will defend his belt against either Jose Aldo or Frankie Edgar. I’m leaning towards Aldo because the UFC has made a habit out of giving Edgar the shaft – what’s once more? Edgar can battle Max Holloway for number one contendership (which is nothing but de-ja vu for Edgar).
As of now, it is not official who will be the next women’s bantamweight challenger, although it’s rather clear that the fight to make is Miesha Tate vs. Ronda Rousey III. This would be a huge fight to put on UFC 200 except for the fact that Rousey said she won’t be ready to fight until the Fall. This means the women’s bantamweight title may have to wait until UFC 201, UFC 202, or UFC 203. I question whether Tate will wait for this fight though. A Holly Holm rematch or Amanda Nunes fight are other options if Tate doesn’t want to wait, but I see the UFC doing what they can to hold out for Tate/Rousey III at UFC 201.
At lightweight, Rafael dos Anjos will be awaiting an opponent as he heals his foot, and should be healthy to fight at UFC 200. However, it’s VERY unclear who will be fighting him. Nate Diaz scored the biggest win possible by choking out Conor McGregor (who was originally scheduled to fight RDA). The argument for Rafael dos Anjos vs. Nate Diaz is definitely there, but there are other contenders in the mix. Eddie Alvarez currently sits at the #1 contender spot in the rankings, and a massive bout between Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov is scheduled for April 16th – 12 weeks out from UFC 200; the winner has perhaps the strongest claim for the title shots. I’d expect the lightweight belt will be reserved for UFC 201 or UFC 202 so they have time to sort through and find the right scenario at 155 lbs. Besides, the elephant in the room is that Rafael dos Anjos isn’t that big of a draw, and doesn’t necessarily need to be featured on UFC 200.
At last, Robbie Lawler sits as a very intriguing prospect to be thrown on UFC 200. But against whom? Stephen Thompson vs. Rory MacDonald has already been scheduled, so that knocks out two contenders. Tyron Woodley has been rumored to be facing Lawler already, but I have hard time seeing that match up ever materialize considering the last time Woodley fought was at UFC 183 when he won a split decision over Kelvin Gastelum. There have been teases and rumors of Georges St. Pierre making a return for quite some time now. Dana White has scoffed at that idea, but we all know White to be one who pretends to be oblivious. I see a GSP return to be a very likely scenario. Not only would it be the perfect fight for UFC 200, but I see it being the ONLY fight that could headline over Conor McGregor. I’m crossing my fingers.
So there you have it – my predictions for the two title fights:
Robbie Lawler vs. Georges St. Pierre
Conor McGregor vs. Jose Aldo II.
Now what about the rest of the card?
I believe these two fights alone are enough to beat UFC 100’s record of 1.6 million PPV buys, but I see the UFC trying to smash that record and attempt to hit 2 million. However, one thing to keep in mind is audience. The four fighters listed above are not cheap fighters – especially McGregor and GSP. So if the UFC is going to throw more stars onto the card, they need to be fighters that will pull in an audience that these four fighters can’t. Otherwise, they UFC would be shoveling over hundreds of thousands of dollars for a fighter who won’t be pulling any extra revenue.
Lawler will pull the crowd who wants guaranteed bloodshed, GSP will pull the old school MMA fans and the Canadian crowd, and Conor will pull the mainstream audience and European crowd.
While we all know Aldo is a very respected fighter, but I don’t see him being much of a draw in Brazil like Anderson Silva is. This is why I am expecting to see Anderson Silva featured in a co-co-main event. A certain patriot by the name of Tim Kennedy has been calling for a shot against Silva for quite some time. I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Chael Sonnen making a return because why the hell not? That fight would definitely draw more PPV revenue. Kennedy is the cheaper option though.
Robbie Lawler vs. Georges St. Pierre
Conor McGregor vs. Jose Aldo II
Anderson Silva vs. Tim Kennedy
So that brings us to three bouts. I am also expecting there to be a women’s showcase on the main card. Holly Holm comes to mind as she took little damage in her 5th round loss to Miesha Tate at UFC 196, and has expressed desire to get back in and fight. She also pulls from a slightly difference audience than the previously mentioned fighters. I’m sure there are a few thousand WMMA fans out there willing to purchase a PPV to see Holly Holm get back to her winning ways. Holly Holm vs. Amanda Nunes is a bout that I see the UFC booking. Cat Zingano is another option here; in fact, she tweeted referencing a fight announcement coming up soon.
Robbie Lawler vs. Georges St. Pierre
Conor McGregor vs. Jose Aldo II
Anderson Silva vs. Tim Kennedy
Holly Holm vs. Amanda Nunes/Cat Zingano
The UFC could stop here for a main card with just 4 bouts, but they pulled off 5 bouts along with two title fights at UFC 189, UFC 194, and UFC 196. The first fight of the PPV may not require much star power, but it needs to be fireworks in order to create a good first impression. Part of what made UFC 189 one of the most memorable fight cards of all time was how Thomas Almeida and Brad Pickett started the card off. I am pulling for the UFC to feature Thomas Almeida again in a similar scenario here against someone like Michael MacDonald.
Robbie Lawler vs. Georges St. Pierre
Conor McGregor vs. Jose Aldo II
Anderson Silva vs. Tim Kennedy
Holly Holm vs. Amanda Nunes/Cat Zingano
Thomas Almeida vs. Michael MacDonald
The last pieces of the puzzle lie in whom headlines the prelim sections of the card. You can count on the UFC putting on a somewhat big fight to headline the Fox Sports 1 prelims. Again, the main theme here is that it’s an exciting bout so it leaves viewers wanting more, and hopefully purchasing the PPV. I like the idea of a Paul Felder vs. Joe Duffy bout.
Robbie Lawler vs. Georges St. Pierre
Conor McGregor vs. Jose Aldo II
Anderson Silva vs. Tim Kennedy
Holly Holm vs. Amanda Nunes/Cat Zingano
Thomas Almeida vs. Michael MacDonald
(FS1 Headliner) Paul Felder vs. Joe Duffy
So there you have it – my speculated UFC 200 card! That should surely top 2 million PPV buys don’t ya think? What’s your UFC 200 card look like?
