Champ Robbie Lawler meets Tyron Woodley at UFC 201.
The Champion
After Georges St. Pierre left the sport, we needed a new 170 lb. king. Johny Hendricks’s subsequent reign was short-lived, and many thought the title would change hands several times (like the women’s bantamweight division would do after Ronda Rousey). But this wasn’t the case. Robbie Lawler defeated Hendricks and maintained his belt through two narrow title defenses. The road wasn’t easy, but Lawler has become a fan-friendly, must-see fighter.
At his core, Lawler is an old-school brawler
Yes, he’s much more technical now, but you can’t take the fight out of the dog. Robbie Lawler relishes sitting in the pocket and trading blows with this opponents because he knows he can outlast anybody. If you’re exchanging shots with Robbie – you’re losing. Rory MacDonald found out the hard way. His confidence in the stand up is what makes him the best welterweight on the planet right now.
But there’s more to Robbie Lawler…
He has developed very masterful boxing skills. As a right-handed southpaw, he throws his lead hand with lots of power. He also uses slick head movement on the inside to line up the left hand for multi-punch combos. You can expect lots of slipping, parrying, and fancy hand-work from Robbie at boxing distance. He’s also a powerful kicker. He may not have much variety or flexibility with his kicks, but they’re plenty dangerous. He uses kicks to batter the arms of his opponents when blocked, or to smash the skull or body when they cut through.
Another element to Robbie Lawler is his anti-wrestling skills
He has fantastic takedown defense. He showed this in his rematch with Johny Hendricks when he thwarted off double leg after double leg. But he also punishes the wrestler. If you can’t put Lawler on his back right away, you can expect to eat elbows and punches during the process. Even if you get Lawler down, he has strong hips that help him spring back up. On his way back up, Lawler is always looking to deliver shots to the head as this is how he surprised Josh Koscheck. In the end, trying to out-wrestle Lawler will often times leave you gassed and discouraged.
He may not be very mobile
but his plodding style is effective at drawing opponents in. Carlos masterfully countered this with well-timed blitzes. He landed when Lawler wanted him to attack, and exited to avoid the exchange. Ultimately, Lawler controversially won the fight by timing Condit with some big shots coming in. Even though Lawler maintained his belt, many would agree that Condit won the strategic battle. In doing so, he somewhat laid out the blueprint to beating the plodding power puncher.
Lawler does a few weaknesses though
Against both Johny Hendricks and Carlos Condit, Lawler narrowly won on the scorecards with only a few bursts of aggression. The moments inbetween were left with him being too patient and too idle. This wasn’t the case against Rory MacDonald, but it could seriously hurt him if these mental lapses show up against Tyron Woodley. Lawler can’t wait for Woodley because of how quick and destructive Woodley’s attacks can come.
Lawler is too willing to be hit. His defensive skills are great in the pocket, but he still enjoys being in the fire a bit too much. It plays well into what Lawler wants to do, but we don’t know when Lawler’s chin will inevitably start to fail him. Within the last five years Lawler has been rattled several times, and we know Woodley has crushing power.
The Challenger
Tyron Woodley is a very noteworthy contender for the welterweight title. While his title shot may not make the most amount of sense right now, it certainly did back when his number one contender fight with Johny Hendricks was scrapped last minute. He has been waiting patiently for this chance, and is a very serious threat.
Woodley’s ring rust could be both advantageous and detrimental
Woodley is 4-1 in his last 5 bouts, but hasn’t fought since the beginning of 2015. However, he hasn’t been injured. In the meantime, he has been doing analysis work for Fox which entails learning and studying the game. Dominick Cruz showed us how beneficial this was when he spent the better part of five years on the sidelines. He spoke several times about how he kept up with the sport, and how analysis work helped him become a better fighter, even when he couldn’t train.
On the flipside, this is a very big fight to return with. Will the anxiety effect him? Will he have ring rust? Is he even healthy right now? These are all valid questions that will be answered Saturday night at UFC 201. But there’s another question that I’m interested in finding the answer to:
Will he be a better Tyron Woodley?
He very well may be. If he isn’t, he may not be equipped enough to win. He has shown to be an explosive power-punching wrestler. Like most of these prototypes, he has an excellent overhand right. He at least uses it to back his opponent against the cage to set them up for a takedown even if it’s not very accurate. He also uses it as a counter against over-aggressive opponents. Woodley possesses very explosive double legs, and spent much of his early MMA career grinding out opponents. In his most recent bout, Woodley stood with opponent Kelvin Gastelum and abandoned any wrestling. This could be a sign of over-confidence, but that was also a year and a half ago.
We may see some new tools in Woodley’s arsenal
18 months is more than enough time to broaden one’s arsenal. Don’t be surprised to see Woodley’s previously-limited striking style expand a bit. We saw a heavy kicking game against Carlos Condit which resulted in him winning via injury. Without the threat of Lawler taking him down we might see Woodley expand on that. I’d also like to see him take command of the outside range which Lawler usually gives up.
The Match Up
Typically when Woodley faces dangerous strikers he resorts to his wrestling to smother them and grind out the victory. Times change though, and now hard-hitting punchers like Robbie Lawler are equipped with the weapons needed to defend against this style. This is why evolution is a must for Woodley. If Woodley comes in looking like he did his last fight against Kelvin Gastelum, you can expect this to be Lawler’s easiest title defense. But, if Woodley shows a few new wrinkles in his game, then things get very interesting.
Carlos Condit showed us how you can overwhelm Lawler on the outside with kicks and punches in bunches. Woodley’s muscle-heavy frame means throwing often may not be feasible, so he’ll have to be conservative. Meanwhile, let’s not forget about what Lawler can do. A big surprise would be if Lawler is able to put Woodley on his back and tire him out. Woodley’s frame has left him with some questionable cardio. Lawler is a known late-starter, so don’t be surprised if drags Woodley into later rounds.
What You Can Expect
Woodley is very dangerous early in the fight, but will most certainly look to be conservative. Expect lots of movement and feeling out early on as Woodley tries to get Lawler’s respect on the feet. Woodley’s right hand isn’t the most accurate weapon, so he’ll need to throw it a few times before he gets a good connection. That means he needs to feel comfortable and safe enough to do so. All of this relies on whether or not Lawler lets Woodley get comfortable or not. We might see a very tense opening start, but once they start opening up, all hell could break loose.
The ideal strategy
Woodley needs to use takedown attempts to open up chances for his right hand. This is an ancient strategy, but it’s all too appropriate in this match up. If he can get Lawler hesitant, then he can make him a sitting target for his right hand. A heavy kicking game would also be a great path for Woodley to take.
For Lawler, he needs to establish some control early on. He can’t go into standby while he waits to get comfortable. I’d like to see Lawler come as the aggressor and back Woodley up against the cage much like Rory MacDonald did. Doing so will force Woodley into a defensive shell where Lawler will be able to see his attacks coming. Lawler can’t afford to give the entire Octagon to Woodley for him to move freely about.
Whatever happens, this is a very intriguing main event. It’s a true clash of styles. Be sure to sit back and enjoy this one! If you liked this article, be sure to share it! Thanks for reading.
