The colossal welterweight fight, Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz 2, is upon us. Will Nate Diaz repeat history and once again humanize Conor McGregor? Or will the Irishman enact vengeance, and silence the doubters? Everyone has something to say about this fight, so let’s get into it:
Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz 1
Before we get into Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz 2, let’s briefly discuss their first fight at UFC 196, and what we can draw from it.
Nate Diaz’s lacked preparation, but not motivation
Nate Diaz came in with no fight camp. We were told that he was unprepared. However, Diaz, unlike most athletes, is always down to fight anybody at any time at any weight. Coincidentally, this is the theme to UFC 202. Yes, we have proof that he was partying in Mexico the week before the fight, but this is a guy who lives and breathes MMA. He’s a true athlete, and is capable of beating the best in the world at any given notice.
The issue for Diaz hasn’t ever been preparation, but rather motivation. Against Josh Thompson (his lone TKO loss in the UFC) and Rafael dos Anjos (arguably his worst performance), Diaz showed up unmotivated. He was fighting on free TV against lesser-known fighters, and didn’t have any reason to really give a damn. When he got the call to fight McGregor, my guess is he took those 10 days in the lead up as seriously as he ever has. And he fought brilliantly.
The weight change and Diaz’s durability
The change in weight became a big factor for Conor McGregor. He was preparing to cut to 155, but when he called for the fight to be at 170, he apparently relaxed on his nutrition and fitness. Why? My guess is Conor wanted to be as big and heavy as possible come fight time. The man just iced the former pound-for-pound great (Jose Aldo) with one punch in thirteen seconds. Looking back, it appeared Conor believed in his power too much, and thought he could run through Diaz.
At the time, it wasn’t THAT far-fetched to think he could do the same to Diaz. It’s still not impossible. He ate Conor’s best shots, stayed in the fight, and when Conor began to slow down, Nate stepped on the gas and took over. By the time Conor shot his half-hearted takedown, he was stunned, gassed, and flustered. Diaz submitting Conor as easily as he did was the effect of an accumulation of damage stemming from Diaz’s boxing. I wouldn’t expect Diaz to have that easy of a time grappling against Conor in this rematch.
McGregor’s strike selection
One thing I’m very interested in seeing is what techniques Conor decides to keep from the first fight, and what he decides to introduce.
Conor relied almost exclusively on his left hand. He threw it as an overhand to reach Diaz, who stood considerably further away than most opponents. Unfortunately, Diaz’s shoulder roll lessened a lot of the impact of the punch, but still caused Conor to lean and reach into it. This proved very inefficient for Conor as it used up a lot of his energy.
This time around, I’m expecting Conor to do a lot more baiting. Expect Conor to get Diaz to throw first so he can counter which will 1. make Conor’s impact harder, and 2. not require so much energy.
Conor ripped the body on occassion, but not nearly enough. Conor landed good shots upstairs, and fell in love with punching Diaz in the face. Look for Conor to go to the body more often in the rematch. It doesn’t matter how solid of a chin you have, a good shot to the breadbasket drops anybody.
Conor utilized great leg attacks in the first fight too, but the fight didn’t last long enough afterwards to tell if it had any impact. I expect Conor to use more kicks this time around and really try to hurt Diaz’s mobility. Even though Nate isn’t known for his mobility, it’s one more thing for Diaz to think about. Diaz also stands heavy on his lead leg, so damaging that could cause Diaz some trouble.
Lastly, we didn’t see Conor use his lead hand much at all. He mostly loaded up on his left overhand, but previous fights have featured Conor throwing a beautiful lead uppercut after faking the left hand. A more diversified boxing approach should greatly improve Conor’s chances of winning the striking exchanges, and keep Diaz from establishing his rhythm.
Nate Diaz’s strike selection
Even though it seemed Conor relied on a lot of the same techniques in the first fight, Diaz did this even more so. A jab, cross, and check hook was about all Diaz had in his arsenal. He offered virtually the same attacks against Michael Johnson too. I am very curious to see if Diaz broadens this up, or if he sticks with what works.
Diaz’s jab some success, but it also got him into trouble. Conor baited Diaz’s jab a lot and came over the top, landing the left while slipping off to the right. However, when Conor was not able to slip the jab, it caught him square and completely disrupted his rhythm.
The cross was really only prevelant when Diaz stunned Conor; both times set up by the jab. Once again, Conor tried to move his head off the center line, but Diaz anticipated it and caught Conor on the chin. This just goes to show how accurate Diaz is.
Lastly, the check hook. Diaz used it to counter Conor’s reaching, looping left hand. He never put much steam on it, but Diaz’s style never incorporates much power. Rather, the check hook (and sometimes slap) was used to frustrate Conor, and make him think twice about throwing the left. Much like slapping a little kid’s palm with the end of a ruler.
Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz 2
How will Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz 2 resemble the first fight?
This is the question I have burning inside me. Conor’s fight camp has incorporated a lot of new elements including more cardio. They have spoken about how Conor is repeat the first round against Diaz five times if need be. Hopefully he hasn’t experienced any over-training. From the sounds of it, Conor is in incredible shape and ready to fight five rounds at 170 pounds.
But there’s still a catch – both men have had nearly 4 months to prepare for one another. Remember, Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor fought virtually on instinct in the first fight as they had little time to prepare for one another.
Prediction
All signs point to Diaz being more aggressive and confident from the start. He felt Conor’s power, he has seen what he offers, and this time around it’s all about being the alpha. We saw this at the press conference too. Coming out more aggressive might make Conor panic and get in his head, or it might work to Conor’s favor.
Remember, Conor wants Diaz to come forward so that he doesn’t have to chase Diaz down. Constantly reaching and throwing himself off balance in pursuit of long-range shots is what tired him out in the first place. If Nate tries marching Conor down to either pursue the clinch or land his shots, he could be walking into Conor’s blistering counter shots. Conor couldn’t knock Diaz while being the aggressor, but a well-placed shot against a target moving towards you can KO anybody. Just look at Melvin Manhoef’s KO over Mark Hunt.
The more I think about this match up, the more I think Conor is going to pull it off. He certainly has his share of hurdles to jump over, but Conor’s preparation this time is unparalleled. He’s been getting used to the size and reach for months now. Of course, Nate’s boxing and slick submissions could always prevail, but I think a more calculated approach from Conor will see him get the victory.
