UFC 202 is almost here! Let’s take a look at some of these UFC 202 odds. If you missed “UFC 202 Odds: Betting on the Prelims” then be sure to check that out before continuing on. There are some very interesting lines on this main card, so let’s break these UFC 202 odds down.
Main Card
Tim Means (-415) vs Sabah Homasi (+335)
Starting off the PPV event is a striker’s delight bout. Homasi fought earlier this month and took zero damage. Even though he’s coming in short notice on his debut, he’s coming off a camp which is a very important thing to note. Homasi is a power hitter who can throw a wide variety of attacks, and is a massive welterweight. Contrast that to Tim Means who is a tall, lanky fighter who surprisingly does his best work at close range. That desire to get close and land elbows might just get him in trouble in this match up. This is also Tim’s first fight back from his PED suspension. He’s a phenomenal fighter, but Homasi has shown to be very heavy handed while Means is hittable. Means has a huge experience edge, but I think Homasi’s very recent fight means he will be comfortable and fresh. I love me some dog money here at +335 betting on Homasi.
Pick: Homasi
Hyun Gyu Lim (-270) vs Mike Perry (+225)
Another pair of welterweights here and another UFC newcomer taking on a dangerous vet. This time, it’s very difficult to bet against the favorite. Lim is a massive welterweight who, despite having a 3-2 UFC record, had opponents Neil Magny and Tarec Saffeidine in some real trouble. He’s a wild brawler who is extremely tough, durable, and dangerous. The clear path to victory against Lim is to take him down and tire him out, but Perry hasn’t shown to be able to do that. In 6 professional fights Perry has 6 (T)KO victories. He’s a brawler who packs a serious punch, but is very hittable too. Then you factor in the Octagon jitters and potential adrenaline dump, and Lim becomes a very clear choice. -270 is pretty steep, but a parlay wouldn’t be out of the question. Or just skip this considering you have two knockout artists.
Pick: Lim or skip
Donald Cerrone (-165) vs Rick Story (+140)
Continuing his welterweight rampage, Donald Cerrone meets his toughest test to date in Rick Story. So far, Cerrone’s power has translated very well as he looked absolutely unstoppable against Patrick Cote. Even though Story is known for having a granite chin and being durable, I wouldn’t count out the possibility of Cerrone running through him like he did Cote. The big hurdle Cerrone faces in this fight is Story’s forward pressure and relentless attack to the body. However, I’m banking on Cerrone doing his homework and not backing straight up against the cage. With a whole lot of confidence and a venomous submission game in his pocket, Cerrone is the smart pick here. +140 is attractive dog money, but stylistically I see this match up favoring Cerrone too much to bet against him.
Pick: Cerrone
Anthony Johnson (-195) vs Glover Teixeira (+165)
In the co-main event we have two the UFC’s best light heavyweights going at it. The winner will certainly get the next title shot. Johnson, the rather large favorite, has turned into quite the dynamic knockout artist. He’s aggressive, efficient, and extremely tough to take down. That being said, Teixeira is a savvy veteran who has faced explosive guys like Johnson before. He had no problem taking Ovince St Preux down and dominating him. I like Teixeira here because he held his composure very well when rocked against Bader, and then capitalized when Bader got over-aggressive. When Johnson has his opponent hurt, his killer instinct typically gets the better of him and he leaves hiself susceptible. Teixeira could use this to get the fight to the floor which would put Johnson in some serious trouble, or just plant a big counter-hook. I hate picking against Rumble because he has looked unstoppable against everyone not named Daniel Cormier, but Teixeira is much more well-rounded and crafty. Plus, +165 isn’t too bad at all. This is a gutsy pick, so maybe it’s best to skip, but I really like Teixeira here.
Pick: Teixeira or skip
Conor McGregor (-125) vs Nate Diaz (+105)
In the main event, we have another difficult match up to pick. Diaz at +105 is rather mind boggling considering how he won the first fight on 10 days notice, and will have a full camp for this fight. That right away makes him seem like a shoe-in, especially since that fight was only 4 months ago in a weight class that’s still unnatural for McGregor. However, something feels different this time around. McGregor has cranked up his preparation to a level that I have never seen in MMA before. The resources, skill, and hunger are there; McGregor might just come in and pull off the win of the century. Durability and efficiency was how Diaz won the first fight, and everything I have seen from Conor’s training footage seems to be an answer for that. Diaz still holds many advantages in this fight, but McGregor is never someone you should bet against. For sure skip this one.
Pick: skip
