With Saturday coming up, it’s time to look at UFC 202 odds. There’s some real money to be made here. I’m going to go through fight-by-fight, and see what UFC 202 odds you need to pay attention to. Let’s start with the UFC 202 odds on the prelims:
Fight Pass Prelims
Alberto Uda (+140) vs Marvin Vettori (-165)
Uda is 9-1 with 4 TKOs and 4 submission wins. Uda’s only loss was his UFC debut against Jake Collier where he was KO’d in the second round. He’ll be facing UFC newcomer Vettori, a 22 year old Italian-born fighter with a 10-2 record. Age and athleticism are going to be big advantages for Vettori who is a decade younger than Uda. Normally, the older fighter has more experience, but not in this case. Uda does have an advantage in reach and size though. Uda typically fights at middleweight, but will be dropping down to welterweight for this bout. Most of Vettori’s wins are by submission, so he’ll likely have to lock up with Uda. You also have the factor of Octagon jitters for Vettori. Because of this, I say stay away from this fight. If you wanted to put a small amount on someone, go with Vettori. He’s hungry, skilled, and has promising credentials.
Pick: Skip or Vettori
Colby Covington (-315) vs Max Griffin (+260)
At 170 lbs we have prospect Colby Covington (9-1, 4-1 UFC) facing off against newcomer Max Griffin (12-2). Covington ran into a little speedbump against Warlley Alves who caught him in a beautiful guillotine; he won’t be in the submission danger against Griffin. Griffin is a slugger who showed a great counter right hand in his last fight. Griffin also has good experience going 5 rounds, and has won via stoppage in the fourth which shows he is dangerous late in the fight. Being a newcomer on such a big card, I see why Griffin is the underdog though. He has powerful punches, but Covington is a smart, skilled guy coming from American Top Team. Covington also has this hunger about him which reminds me of a young Chris Weidman. He has the perfect style to put Griffin on his back and out-grapple him. Covington is the smart pick, but at -315 you can’t expect much of a return.
Pick: Covington or Skip
Neil Magny (-140) vs Lorenz Larkin (+120)
Topping off the Fight Pass prelims is an amazing match up between Neil Magny and Lorenz Larkin. Both guys have gotten familiar with the UFC’s welterweight division, and both are on the rise. Magny, one of the roster’s most active fighters, is riding a 3-fight win streak. Lately, his durability has been his biggest weapon as he’s been able to endure punishment and then use efficiency to get back in the fight. Larkin is an economical fighter himself, and doesn’t fit the profile that Magny has recently been successful against. He also possesses a lot of dangerous attributes in his own right. Larkin is one of the division’s best strikers, but Magny is a jack-of-all-trades. Magny is long and rangy on the feet, very efficient, and sneaky in close quarters. He also has considerably more momentum than Larkin. -140 isn’t too bad for Magny, and I’d take it.
Pick: Magny
Fox Sports 1 Prelims
Randa Markos (-130) vs Cortney Casey (+110)
Starting off the FS1 prelims is a women’s strawweight bout between two women who have yet to really hit a breakthrough in their careers. Markos is 2-2 in the UFC, and has gone the distance in all of her 4 fights. Casey on the other hand is 1-2, but recently finished her last opponent via elbows. Markos is the favorite here and for good reason. She has more experience against better opponents, and has a tough style to deal with. Karolina Kowalkiewicz was able to out-strike her using savvy movement and punching combinations; Casey doesn’t possess those same skills. Casey will want to tie up and bully Markos like she does everyone else. Not only do I doubt this will happen, but +110 is laughable. Markos is the pick here; decision is even more likely.
Pick: Markos
Artem Lobov (-110) vs Chris Avila (-110)
The SBG vs Stockton 209 rivalry starts off early as Conor McGregor’s teammate Artem Lobov meets Nate Diaz’s teammate Chris Avila. Lobov is a dangerous pick no matter what. He possesses a funky striking style riddled with so many faults and weaknesses, but his show-stopping power keeps him afloat. That being said, Avila is the type of guy that Lobov might be able to shine against. A lot of pressure will be on both of these fighters to get that early psychology advantage here in this rivalry between the Diaz team and the McGregor team. This could cause some tension, and cause both fighters to be more willing to brawl. I like Lobov here because he’s been involved in the super camp McGregor has put together. Avila will also be making his UFC debut with a whole lot of pressure on his shoulders while Lobov has been there and done that. Lobov struggles against fighters who make him miss so if the fight turns into a brawl it will give Lobov the advantage. I suggest skipping this, especially because there’s not much money to make, but if you had to pick someone I’d go Lobov.
Pick: Skip or Lobov
Raquel Pennington (-245) vs Elizabeth Phillips (+205)
These UFC 202 odds are one you should really take into consideration. Raquel Pennington has always been overshadowed in the bantamweight division. She took Holly Holm to a split decision, and gave the blueprint on how to beat her. Moreover, she just defeated an improved Bethe Correira, and before that she choked out Jessica Andrade. These are very impressive accomplishments. Phillips meanwhile has only fought twice in the last two years going 1-1. This inactivity can’t be good for her at all. Stylistically, she doesn’t present anything that would hinder me from picking “Rocky”. The -245 could be better, but it’s a very safe pick.
Pick: Pennington
Cody Garbrandt (-530) vs Takeya Mizugaki (+415)
Out of all the UFC 202 odds (at least on the prelims) I think this one is the easiest one to pick. It’s a shame the oddsmakers aren’t giving Mizugaki more credit considering his experience, but I see where they’re coming from. Mizugaki has solid boxing, cardio, and defensive wrestling, but Garbrandt strikes in a different dimension. Unless Mizugaki can surprise us all and put Garbrandt on his back, I think Garbrandt knocks him out within two rounds. Even then, Garbrandt has legitimate wrestling skills. -530 is too deep to put anything into, but I wouldn’t rule out betting on the under. +135 for this fight to be finished in a round a half is an attractive pick. Both fighters like to strike, and the best time for a KO is early when they’re both fresh.
Pick: Under (1.5 rounds)
Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for more UFC 202 odds to come! I’ll be going over the main soon!
