UFC 204 odds feature some potentially lucrative picks. Michael Bisping will be defending his newly acquired middleweight title against old-timer Dan Henderson in Manchester. It’s a classic England vs America showdown. Take a look at these UFC 204 odds if plan on waging some money on the fights.
UFC 204 Odds
Michael Bisping vs Dan Henderson
Even though Henderson holds an iconic knockout victory over Michael Bisping, it’s the Brit who is a -230 favorite while Henderson is a +190 underdog.
Bisping won the title in dramatic fashion, coming in short notice and winning by KO. Rockhold didn’t respect Bisping’s hands, and paid dearly for it. Bisping appears to be hitting his prime despite being 37 years old and having 36 fights. However, it’s nothing comparable to the illustrious career of the 46 year old Dan Henderson. Henderson has fought the biggest names in the sport, and while he certainly shows his age, he’s still very dangerous.
A single KO win over Hector Lombard is NOT enough to earn Henderson the middleweight title shot. Nevertheless, this is a fight that both parties want, so Henderson will be given the gift of an unwarranted title shot as some sort of “retirement gift” (assuming this is his last fight).
The big question is whether or not Dan Henderson can plant his H-bomb on Bisping’s chin. If you put any money on Henderson, that’s what you’re banking on. Even though Dan has renowned wrestling skills, I seriously question if he has the athleticism and physicality to utilize any of it at his age. Bisping should have the sharper, quicker reflexes and movements which will most certainly nullify Henderson’s wrestling; this should transfer onto the feet too.
I think +190 is pretty generous for Henderson considering how limited his arsenal is, and how good Bisping has been looking. Sure, Dan could plant one of his bombs on the Brit’s chin, but the more likely scenario is that Bisping picks him apart. Bisping has more weapons, more cardio, more speed, and more momentum. Bisping is the smart pick.
Vitor Belfort vs Gegard Mousasi
In the co-main event, we have top middleweights Belfort and Mousasi meeting in a bout seven years in the making. Now, Belfort seems to be on the downfall of his career, which is why he’s a +270 underdog. Mousasi, while a bit inconsistent, has more left in the tank, and is a -330 favorite.
Mousasi is on a two fight win streak with his last loss being to Uriah Hall. Mousasi has previously struggled against explosive strikers who can close the distance quickly. Machida gave him all he could handle, Hall was able to knock him out, and even Jacare Souza landed some solid shots on him before taking him down. Belfort definitely possesses the ability to surprise Mousasi on the feet, especially if Mousasi comes in too relaxed (which happens quite often). However, Mousasi has the sharp top game and ground and pound to put Belfort in the same futile position that Jacare Souza and Chris Weidman had him in.
-330 is a little too steep for Mousasi, especially considering how much power Belfort has. Let’s not forget that Belfort also has a wide arsenal. Both men are strong where their opponent is weak, which means theoretically the odds should be more even. But they’re not, which means a Belfort pick could pay off big – however, recent performances suggest a clear Mousasi win here. Either skip this, or put something small on Belfort.
Ovince St. Preux vs Jimi Manuwa
Light-heavyweights take the stage next in a pretty competitive match up in regards to the UFC 204 odds. OSP comes in as a -160 favorite while Manuwa is a +130 slight underdog. Both men are coming off losses to higher-ranked competitors; OSP lost to Jon Jones at UFC 198, Manuwa was KO’d by Anthony Johnson at UFC 191.
Manuwa’s striking mechanics are good, but Anthony Johnson and Alexander Gustafsson, two superior strikers, knocked him out. He has yet to face a solid wrestler too as he has been given virtually nothing but strikers for opponents. OSP not only has the power to knock him out if he catches him, but also has the grappling skills that Manuwa hasn’t seen before. OSP is also huge for 205.
Betting on OSP is hard to do given how unconventional and inconsistent he is, but it’s the smart pick. Maybe also take a look at the +130 over at 1.5 rounds. OSP is big and durable so I doubt Manuwa will stop him early. If OSP wins this, it’ll most likey be by decision. Some money on OSP and the over would be a great option.
Stefan Struve vs Daniel Omelianczuk
The -185 favorite Struve meets +160 underdog Omelianczuk in this battle of European heavyweights. Struve, a stunning 7-foot-tall striker, will have to do his best to stay on his feet against the shorter, stockier grappler. Fortunately for Struve, he has faced this style of opponent virtually his whole career. Struve always has to worry about tight hooks on the inside; while he is pretty hittable, he has a solid chin. We saw a new wrinkle in Struve’s game in his last fight – counter-striking. He lured Bigfoot Silva into his right cross counter for the early KO. This could certainly happen against Omelianczuk, who likes to barrel forward. Struve also possesses a lot of toughness as his early UFC fights show.
Struve is the clear pick here, and I’m liking the -185 odds. I know Omelianczuk has some momentum after a decision win against Oleksiy Oliynyk, but he will be out-matched here. Don’t be afraid to put some hefty money on Struve.
Prelims
One bout I want to highlight is the prelim headliner: Yuri Alcantara vs Brad Pickett. The Brazilian, Alcantara, is a -160 favorite while Pickett is a +135 underdog. As much as I want to see Pickett get a win in England, he’s going against a very large grappler. I think Pickett will hold a speed and boxing advantage, but I just see Alcantara being able to put Pickett on the mat and dominating from the top. -160 isn’t too bad either, I’d gladly take those odds.
As for the rest of the prelims, odds either aren’t published, or just aren’t worth betting on. Mirsad Bektic vs Russell Doane was recently added to the card. Odds aren’t out yet, but I have to assume Bektic will be a heavy favorite. Doane has lost three in a row, and struggles against powerful grapplers which Bektic exactly is. I’d put money down on Bektic anywhere under -300.
