The UFC heads back to Vegas on March 4 for UFC 209. The event features two anticipated title fights on top of a stacked card. Let’s take a look at these title fights, and break down how you may be able to win some money!
Tyron Woodley (+105) vs Stephen Thompson II (-125)
Pretty surprising lines for this welterweight title fight.
I definitely did not suspect Woodley to be the underdog again, but in fact he’s been the underdog in many of his recent fights. Let’s break down what happened in their first encounter back in November:
Woodley won round one, and dominated round four to earn a 10-8, but was slightly edged in rounds two, three, and five. This resulted in a majority draw. However, most thought Woodley inflicted more damage, and thus was more deserving of a victory. It’s a little confusing why Woodley is the underdog again though.
In the first round, Woodley caught one of Thompson’s kicks, took him down, and battered him. This made Thompson tentative to strike and commit to his best weapons. Thompson quit throwing kicks, employed a different approach, and as a result, didn’t get taken down again. Rather than pressuring Woodley and overwhelming him with volume, Thompson resorted to baiting Woodley out and counter-striking. Woodley had trouble landing anything significant until the fourth round where he seriously hurt Thompson, and almost finished him.
Still though, Thompson’s kicks are easily his best asset, so not being able to throw him freely is detrimental. Both fighters were essentially handicapped. Woodley’s takedowns shut down Thompson’s kicks, but Thompson’s footwork shut down Woodley’s takedowns.
In the rematch …
We can expect Thompson to employ the same counter-striking strategy that helped him win three of the five rounds. However, he needs to bring something additional because Woodley will likely have an answer to that. If Thompson can figure out a way to fire off his kicks without hesitation and without being taken down, then I expect him to pull away with the win. But even then, Thompson wasn’t ever able to really hurt or dominate Woodley on the feet while Woodley very clearly had moments where he almost finished the fight. This makes Woodley the attractive pick heading in to the UFC 209 rematch as he has more areas to succeed.
Pick: Woodley
Khabib Nurmagomedov (-215) vs Tony Ferguson (+185)
Despite Nurmagomedov and Ferguson being neck-and-neck in terms of title contention, there is a big gap in the odds. Surprisingly, Nurmagomedov is over a two-to-one favorite which means there’s a pretty sizable comeback on Ferguson. They say to always play the numbers, not the fighters, so in this case it would be very wise to put some money down on Ferguson. Realistically, there isn’t that much of a difference in skill and experience, so you may want to take advantage of these odds for UFC 209.
First off, both fighters are on incredible win streaks. Nurmagomedov has yet to lose in MMA as he is 24-0 with a 8-0 UFC record. Ferguson is 22-3 overall with a 12-1 UFC record. It’s safe to say neither man is very used to losing. With the stakes as high as they are, I can only imagine the intensity that will take place this weekend.
Nurmagomedov has faced very little adversity throughout his career. One might say that his biggest enemy has been himself due to the amount of injuries he has sustained. However, a healthy Nurmagomedov could potentially be the best lightweight on the planet.
Khabib essentially has one path to victory …
And he’s able to achieve it each and every time. Khabib pursues the clinch in every fight. Once there, he wraps his opponents up, controls their hips, and ragdolls them around for as long as needed all while punching them in the face or going for submissions. It’s a very straight-forward approach, but it’s one that Khabib has mastered. The years and years that Khabib has spent wrestling and employing this tactic means he can do it effortlessly.
However, we have seen him struggle a bit when forced to strike. He is definitely less-refined in that respect.
Ferguson on the other hand is much more free-form. He’ll fight any where: at distance, in the clinch, or on the ground. Ferguson embraces the chaos and enjoys pushing a pace that causes panic. He has shown dangerous striking and the ability to inflict damage in every single scenario. This is partly due to his confidence on the ground. He’s able to throw strikes without hesitation because he doesn’t fear the consequences. Even if he gets taken down, Ferguson’s wrestling is high level. He’s also extremely skilled at snatching submissions during transitions.
Pick: Ferguson
The smart pick here is Ferguson. I believe he and Khabib are pretty evenly matched, but +185 is pretty attractive; it’s calling to have some money put on it. The truth is that Ferguson has more ways to win this fight, and more avenues to be successful. Even though Khabib has been able to take control every single time, Ferguson brings the innovation and free-flowing style needed to adapt and force Khabib into a different type of fight.
