As the year draws to a close, it offers us a great opportunity to take a look at the state of the UFC’s roster, and what we can expect in the upcoming months.
Today, we’re going to be looking at the UFC Featherweight Division (145lb).
As discussed in a previous article, the UFC Featherweight Division is currently ruled by one man, and one man only.
At UFC 194, Conor McGregor defeated Jose Aldo in an emphatic 13-second knockout victory to claim the Featherweight championship and cement himself as the new king at 145lbs. Now, with McGregor’s eyes apparently set at a new challenge in a higher weight class, Featherweights’ future suddenly seems slightly uncertain.
If Conor does move up, will he be allowed to remain featherweight champion? If he does, will fights be made in order to solidify his challenger in the interim?
For the purpose of this discussion, we’ll assume that Conor’s next move is to remain at Featherweight, and judge the division as such.
While McGregor spent 2015 soaring, Frankie Edgar spent the majority of it waiting. His last loss coming against Jose Aldo, Edgar has spent the last few years on a tear, beating five men, each performance more impressive than the last, culminating in his first round KO of Chad Mendes earlier this month.
After that victory, UFC President Dana White admitted that Edgar was clearly the next man to fight for the gold.
“Sometimes you’ve got to go out and you’ve got to put the stamp on it, man,” UFC president Dana White said in a post-fight press conference after Edgar vs. Mendes. “Nobody can deny Frankie anymore. He looked amazing tonight, and he’ll get whatever he wants.”
After that, everyone assumed Edgar would face the winner of McGregor and Aldo, but unfortunately for Frankie, once again his certain title shot has been put into question.
After McGregor’s victory, the Irishman said that despite being impressed with Edgar’s performance, he had his eyes on the UFC Lightweight championship. Edgar has reacted angrily, taking to Twitter to voice his displeasure.
For now, the former Lightweight champion will have to wait to see, but clearly he has been patient for long enough.
Meanwhile, since his loss at UFC 194, Jose Aldo has stated his case for a rematch, claiming he deserves it on merit (based on his decade long reign as champion). Indeed, the UFC has precedent for awarding dominant champions rematches, but with Aldo, you get the sense that’s not on the cards.
A rematch is a tough sell, as a (record fast) 13-second loss is as decisive as they get. For Aldo, it’s yet to be seen who they can match him up with, but he’d certainly be a formidable test for any man climbing the ranks.
One such man could be Max Holloway, who also came away from UFC 194 victorious. Holloway has looked impressive since his loss to McGregor, and his abilities have clearly improved tremendously. A rematch against the new champion could be an interesting proposition, and a victory over Aldo would definitely put him in the conversation.
If McGregor does indeed move up to Lightweight, but on the condition he relinquishes his Featherweight belt (something he has insisted won’t be happening), then the logical bout would be Aldo vs. Edgar for the vacated belt.
If McGregor decides to stay at 145lbs, something which is perhaps slightly more likely given Rafael Dos Anjos’s destruction of Donald Cerrone last week, then it’s almost certain he’ll face Edgar.
Elsewhere, Chad Mendes will be looking to recover from his devastating loss to Edgar, but perhaps should look to take some time off before doing so. A vicious knockout can affect any fighter’s ability to take punishment, and one wonders how much of an effect the McGregor loss had on Mendes, who had previously shown a phenomenal chin. With two big knockouts in a row, it’s perhaps in his best interest to wait. Upon his return, a Cub Swanson fight could offer the two men a chance to change their fortunes after back to back losses.
Prediction for 2016: McGregor faces and defeats Edgar, before moving up to the Lightweight division, whilst remaining Featherweight champion. He’ll then return to 145lbs and face the winner of Jose Aldo and Max Holloway.
