UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs. Thompson features six exciting main card fights.
This Saturday, live on Fox Sports 1, the UFC brings us a welterweight collision as Johny Hendricks takes on surging up-and-comer Stephen Thompson. This is a very important bout in the 170 lb weight class as the winner becomes very close to being the next-in-line for Robbie Lawler’s title. There is still much discussion being had over whom Lawler will take on next. Rumors spell Tyron Woodley’s name as being the next up, but rumors of Georges St. Pierre’s expected return exist as well. Regardless, the winner of Hendricks vs. Thompson will definitely be thrown into the mix.
Mike Pyle vs. Sean Spencer
The action will start and end in the welterweight division, but on two very different sides of the 170 lb ladder. To begin, we have long-time veteran Mike Pyle going up against 28-year-old Sean “Black Magic” Spencer. Pyle hasn’t been on the winning side of a fight since he TKO’d TJ Waldburger in the beginning of 2014. Despite being 2-3 in his last 5, Pyle is a very savvy veteran who has seen it all in this sport. In addition, he is threatening from everywhere – especially off his back, and in the clinch. Pyle can seek out submissions from all different position, and always looks for offense no matter the circumstance. That being said, he was thwarted by Colby Covington as he couldn’t stop the takedown, and couldn’t get anything going off his back. Spencer isn’t the same type of fighter as Covington though, as he prefers to box at range. He throws smooth punching combinations and moves very well.
On the feet, expect Pyle to be at a loss. While Pyle can throw sharp, slicing attacks, he leaves himself slightly exposed, and Spencer has shown great awareness and pattern recognition (as seen with his overhand right against Cathal Pendred). However, I fully expect Pyle’s gameness and fight IQ to come into play. Spencer may have his moments, but Pyle is multi-faced on the ground, and attacks from all sorts of angles. The clinch game is also Pyle’s chopping block so expect Pyle’s elbows and knees to be a big weapon. While Spencer has the physical aptitude to overpower Pyle, it will be the technique that keeps Pyle in this fight. I think Pyle’s non-stop attacking ground game will do enough in this fight to give him a split decision victory.
Misha Cirkunov vs. Alex Nicholson
In a bout between two rising light heavyweights, 1-0 UFC prospect Misha Cirkunov will take on the undefeated debuting opponent Alex Nicholson (who is replacing Corey Anderson on short notice). Both of these fighters are very untested and have yet to develop into the type of fighter that could contend with the division’s elite. However, given how shallow the 205 lb division is, either of these guys could be seen in the top 15 in just a couple of fights.
Cirkunov is an absolute power house. He is built like a fire hydrant, but fights like one too. His stand up is still green and awkward, but he hits with devastating power. Cirkunov’s real bread-and-butter is his Judo. Cirkunov has excellent control once he locks up with his opponent, and his strength is something that any man will have difficulty with overcoming. Misha was seen in his debut smashing Daniel Jolly to bits, and I expect him to do the same thing here. There isn’t much Nicholson can do on short notice against such a power house like Cirkunov. Nicholson has shown to be aggressive on the feet, and willing to take lots of risks. Maybe there’s a chance he can catch Cirkunov, but chances are Misha will lock up, take him down, and pound him out. This will not be a pretty fight. Cirkunov by first or second round TKO.
Joe Benavidez vs. Zach Makovsky
In the flyweight division, there aren’t many fighters with more experience than Joseph Benavidez. He steps in on a 4-fight winning streak against Zach Makovsky. Makovsky was last seen dropping a competition decision to John Dodson back in May of 2015 whereas Benavidez has been able to stay a little more active. Both of these men are extremely talented, and are surrounded by great trainers and great people. However, as it sits now, I view Benavidez as someone who just slightly under the champion in Demetrious Johnson whereas Makovsky still has some kinks to figure out.
When comparing these two, the biggest difference is their levels of aggression. Benavidez strikes at a much higher rate than Makovsky, who tends to sit back and watch a little more than he should. Benavidez is lightening quick, and while he tends to rush in like a bull, he hits some good force and that sets his grappling game up very well. Makovsky is a solid grappler as well, but again, he struggles in finding and securing threatening positions. Against Benavidez, Makovsky can’t afford to sit back and wait. Look for Benavidez to snatch the neck of a complacent Makovsky in round two, and move one step closer to another bout with Mighty Mouse.
Ovince St. Preux vs. Rafael Cavalcante
Back up in the light heavyweight division we have a clash of styles as developing, athletic grappler Ovince St. Preux takes on Brazilian muay thai striker Rafael Cavalcante. Both OSP and Cavalcante were finished in their last bouts – OSP was choked out by Glover Teixeira while Cavalcante was elbowed into bits by Patrick Cummin. Just by looking at who OSP as beaten and lost to, and compare that to Cavalcante, you can make the assumption that OSP is on another level. He’s far more consistent, and possess a wider variety of ways to finish the fight than Cavalcante does. That being said, Cavalcante is a vicious striker who has the killer instinct and power to put anybody away – in the first round, that is.
Cavalcante has notoriously poor conditioning. While this can definitely improve over time, the ways in which OSP targets the body and applies pressure in wrestling scrambles means Cavalcante will have a hard time managing his gas tank. OSP is very athletically gifted, and while the timing on his takedown attempts needs work, he should be able to complete them against Cavalcante with relative ease. From the top position, OSP is difficult to get out from under from, and is quite the savvy submission artist. He’ll go for the Von-Flue choke and other chokes very aggressively, so Cavalcante absolutely has to mind his Ps and Qs mid-transition.
On the feet, OSP targets the body with his left kick, and throws power very well off the back foot. OSP moves smoothly and effectively despite having some awkward mechanics. Cavalcante is much more mechanically sound, and in the early exchanges you can expect OSP to very cautious of Rafael’s power. That being said, OSP should be able to weather any of the early storm Cavalcante can manage to muster up. Expect St. Preux to batter Cavalcante from a distance with his kicks in order to open up the takedown; from there, it shouldn’t take long for OSP to snatch up a submission via some sort of choke.
Roy Nelson vs. Jared Rosholt
Heavyweights take the cage now as “Big Country” Nelson meets promising contender Jared Rosholt. With only one loss in the UFC, Jared Rosholt is definitely one to keep an eye on. However, due to his lackluster wrestling-based attack which produces very little damaging offense, Rosholt has turned into a “smoke break” type of fighter – when Rosholt is on, you can take a smoke break. That all changes in this fight though because he will be facing some very steep odds that say Roy Nelson will knock him out. Nelson’s overhand right is one of the most consistent and damaging blows in the heavyweight division. While Nelson has struggled against the top end of the division, Rosholt doesn’t present the type of threats that could stop Nelson from landing the right hand. While Rosholt has fantastic wrestling, Nelson has shown decent takedown defense. Besides, all it takes is one bomb to land. Nelson by KO.
Johny Hendricks vs. Stephen Thompson
And now we’re here – the main event, Hendricks vs. Thompson. Former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks will try to claw his way back into contention by taking on the surging up-and-comer Stephen Thompson. This is a very interesting clash of styles because we have a skilled barebones wrestler in Johny Hendricks who has been slowly diversifying his striking game. He used to only be known for his left hook – which has put several men on their backs – but now seems to be opening his mind up to more of a muay thai approach. I fear this type of confidence in his developing striking skills could lead to overconfidence against a much better, naturally well-versed striker in Stephen Thompson.
Thompson is a karate guy. He throws techniques that are hard to prefer for, and has a very established feel for rhythm, tempo, and distance management as well. In addition, Thompson has comfort in the pocket as he slips and counters very effectively as well as throwing on the back foot. While Thompson’s shots may not have the impact that Hendricks’ do, they are accurate and well-placed. Any time these two men trade shots is a chance for something big to happen. Hendricks could find the elusive chin of Thompson (like Ellenberger almost did in the first round), or Thompson could catch Hendricks coming in with his intercepting fist (coined by Robin Black). Basically, the longer Hendricks stands with Thompson, the more he’s playing with fire that he can’t handle.
That’s where the wrestling will come in. Hendricks is at his core a powerhouse wrestler. While Thompson has been striking all his life, Hendricks has been wrestling. I think the winner of Hendricks vs. Thompson will come down to who has prepared their “weak side” more. Thompson has been able to use his elusive movement well in getting away from predictable double legs, but Hendricks is a master of disguise and can also shoot in on Thompson coming in. I think Hendricks will definitely find himself on top of Thompson multiple times in the fight, and it will come down to whether Thompson is prepared to fight off his back or not.
Because we have seen Hendricks make some mental mistakes in the past (like spending three rounds hugging the legs of Robbie Lawler with nothing to show for it), I think Thompson will do enough to get the victory. I don’t think Thompson will finish Hendricks as Hendricks has shown to have quite the sturdy beard, but it will be a performance where Stephen Thompson evolves from a “promising contender” into an actual threat among the welterweight division’s elite. Expect Thompson to battle through some hard shots and being taken down en route to a unanimous decision as he consistently gets back up and deals damage, accelerating over the course of the fight.
