Coming off the heels of one of it’s most shocking events in… well ever, the UFC returns with UFC Fight Night 78, headlined by Kelvin Gastelum against Neil Magny (who replaces the injured Matt Brown).
With Ronda Rousey in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at the upcoming show in Mexico.
Taking place at welterweight, Gastelum (#15) returns to the 170lb division after an enforced visit to Middleweight after missing weight by ten pounds against Tyrone Woodley at UFC 183.
In terms of potential ability, Gastelum is a hugely promising talent. Winning The Ultimate Fighter 17 against Uriah Hall (another man who seems to battle turning promise into victories), he’s gone on to beat Jake Ellenberger and veteran Nate Marquardt in phenomenal performances.
Standing opposite him is Magny (#13), a diverse striker coming off a split decision victory over Erick Silva. Before a loss to Damian Maia, who can beat anyone in the world on his best day, Magny was on a seven fight win streak, three of which coming by TKO/KO.
Magny carries a significant height and reach over Gastelum, and can use that range advantage well. With an ability to put on a fast pace in his fights, and with Kelvin’s well known weight cut difficulties, Magny could look to use that range until later rounds when Gastelum’s cardio may fade, before turning the pressure up to where the younger fighter can’t keep up.
For Gastelum to achieve success, he’s probably going to have to close the distance, negate that reach, and get this fight into the clinch and then to the ground. He’s shown a knack for submissions (winning four out of eleven fights), and with Magny tapping three times in his career offers the younger fighter a potential route to victory here.
Yet, as always with Gastelum, you get the impression that it’s always touch and go in regards to his weight, and as such makes him a hard one to make assumptions with. If he comes into the fight well prepared, it’s not hard to see him as the slight favourite the odds have him, but if he once again there’s an issue with getting down to 170, Magny could very easily get the victory here.
In the co-main event, we have a phenomenal fight in Ricardo Lamas and Diego Sanchez.
The fight marks the featherweight debut of Sanchez, who’s coming off a hugely controversial victory at lightweight over Ross Pearson. The TUF season 1 veteran is attempting a resurgence at a lower weight, citing an attempt to change his wild and frenzied style in order to prolong his career.
For Lamas (#4), he’s on the rebound from a devastating knockout loss to Chad Mendes, and will be coming in as the favourite with a point to prove.
Sanchez is an unknown quantity at featherweight, but realistically, has faced a much lower level of fighter recently than Lamas has. Although Lamas has been known to get into Diego’s world of a slugfest, if he shows some discipline here, he should be able to pull off the win.
In other action, we’ll be seeing the return of Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo (#5), who faces fellow flyweight Jussier Formiga (#3).
The notable odds for the fight card are:
- Magny vs Gastelum
+225 / -265 - Lamas vs Sanchez
-675 / +500 - Formiga vs Cejudo
+350 / -450
