This coming weekend’s Fight Night event in Connecticut is co-headlined by Heavyweights Ben Rothwell and Alistair Overeem as both men try to earn a win that puts them back on the road to relevance in the division. Right now at the books, Overeem is a wide favorite paying (-525) despite dropping 2 of his last 3, while the comeback on Rothwell is sitting at around (+420).
In many ways , this is an interesting fight. both are less than 35 yeas old, and both have roughly 50 fights, and you rarely get competitors with that type of experience at this level of the game. It is also a battle of two guys who in many ways are their own worst enemies, as both are viewed at some point as fighters who have not matched their potential in the UFC.
Overeem’s troubles are well documented. The man who took out Brock Lesnar then went on to suffer back to back losses and serve a suspension for PEDs which saw him drop from the title picture. A win over Frank Mir, the 4th loss in a row for the fading Mir, did little to push Overeem’s name back up the rankings, but it served to stop the free fall and may have saved his job.
In terms of sheer physical size, Rothwell is massive, but he ha never been able to put it together to make a meaningful run in the UFC. Dating back to September of 2007, Rothwell is 5-4, alternating wins and losses and never strining together 2 in a row of the same result. he won hi last outing, so based on his pattern over the last 7 years, Rothwell is slated to lose this fight!
Rothwell is a guy who at times in his career has shown an ability to take a lot of punishment. His blueprint for the upset is simple, and that is to play defense and take as little damage as possible while Overeem unloads and proceeds to tire. Though this strategy served him well on the club circuit where he started, at this level the first part of that strategy seems to leave Rothwell without enough steam to get the job finished.
That Overeem will come out and pressure is almost a given. If Rothwell is able to get thru the rush, Overeem showed against Mir he can settle in and manage his wind for a three round fight. By stoppage or by decision, the most likely winner here is Overeem.
