UFC on FOX odds:
Luis Henrique (-105) vs. Francis Ngannou (-115)
Hayder Hassan (-110) vs. Vicente Luque (-110)
Kamaru Usman (-250) vs. Leon Edwards (+210)
Cole Miller (EV) vs. Jim Alers (-120)
Nik Lentz (-111) vs. Danny Castillo (-109)
Josh Samman (-180) vs. Tamdan McCrory (+155)
Sarah Kaufman (-160) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+135)
CB Dolloway (-400) vs. Nate Marquardt (+325)
Myles Jury (-160) vs. Charles Oliveira (+135)
Randa Markos (-200) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+170)
Michael Johnson (-485) vs. Nate Diaz (+385)
Junior dos Santos (-290) vs. Alistair Overeem (+240)
Rafael dos Anjos (-200) vs. Donald Cerrone (+170)
Easy Money:
Of course, everyone wants to know where the easy money is. While MMA is a variable-filled sport where literally anything can happen (and we have seen some crazy things happen in that cage), there are a few fights I want to point out that are easy money.
First, CB Dolloway over Nate Marquardt is probably the easiest fight to pick, but unfortunately the odds also represent this. Dolloway finds himself at a 4-t0-1 favorite over Marquardt, and for good reason. While both are experienced vets, Marquardt has been on a horrible skid lately, and seems to be getting worse and worse everytime he steps in the cage. Dolloway is a hard hitter with a great wrestling game, so Dolloway is the easy pick here.
Another easy pick is Cole Miller over Jim Alers. The odds here are a bit weird. Miller at even is mind-boggling considering he has 17 bouts in the UFC and doesn’t have the normal physical wear-and-tear that most guys have with that much experience. Miller last lost to Max Holloway (no shame in that), but has wins over some legit competition as well. Being as well-rounded as he is, I don’t see a way Jim Alers (1-1 in the UFC), is going to get the win here.
I will also mention Josh Samman over Tamdan McCrory. Even though I have been impressed with McCrory’s recent resurgence, Samman is 3-0 in the UFC with three finishes. He is on a roll, and I don’t see anything from McCrory that could present a challenge to the surging Florida-native.
Dangerous Picks:
To be honest, there are quite a few match-ups on here that are too risky to put any money down – no matter what the odds say. The first bout I want to point out is Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem. On paper, JDS is the easy pick here as he has only lost to Cain Velasquez and has stamped out every other contender in his way. Overeem has also shown great inconsistency in the UFC, due to a questionable chin-and-fight IQ – not something you want to have against a power-puncher like JDS.
Even though I picked Overeem to win in a mild upset, do not bet on this fight. First of all, these are two elite heavyweights who have been throwing leather for much of their lives; when you have as much power as these guys do, all it takes is one punch to completely disrupt the odds. Also, both dos Santos and Overeem appeared much softer in the weigh-ins compared to previous appearances. With strict drug testing now coming into the equation, I’m not confident that these two will show up with the same level of fitness as they have had in past performances.
Another dangerous pick is Michael Johnson vs. Nate Diaz. On paper, Johnson is easy money – he has less miles, and is a stylistic nightmare for someone like Diaz. However, it’s easy to forget that Diaz only has recent losses to the likes of Rafael dos Anjos, Josh Thomson, and Benson Henderson. Diaz is a crafty fighter who can get the better of anybody in there, especially if he can get under their skin. Johnson and Diaz engaged in a hotel lobby altercation earlier which tells me these two guys are going to be very intense – this favors the underdog Nate Diaz.
I will mention Charles Oliveira vs. Myles Jury here as well. Jury is making his featherweight debut – who knows how the weight cut went for him. Oliveira also missed weight (the third time in his UFC career), so that gives little hint that his preparation didn’t go totally according to planned. In addition, Oliveira is coming off of a freak injury suffered in his last fight versus Max Holloway while Jury is looking to rebound from a poor performance turned in against Donald Cerrone. There are just too many variables in this fight that may test the mental and physical standards of both men.
Smart Bets:
Some smart bets you can make, in addition to the “easy money” fights, are Nik Lentz, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and Rafael dos Anjos. “The Carny” Nik Lentz is facing Danny Castillo who is on a 3-fight losing streak. Lentz is a top-ranked featherweight, and not a step down at all in competition for Castillo – bank on him getting the W here. The Pole, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, is making her UFC debut against the tough Randa Markos. While Markos has UFC experience and has shown some promise, Karolina is a good underdog as she has a ton of hype behind her coming in to her UFC debut – and stylistically she has the technical advantages to go very far in the women’s strawweight division.
Lastly, Rafael dos Anjos in the main event is my pick. While Cerrone has lots of fan support, and is a dangerous fighter both on the feet and on the ground, RDA has looked unstoppable recently. Also, RDA already has a win over Cerrone – the only knock against dos Anjos was that he slowed down in the third round of that fight, but as we saw against Anthony Pettis, Rafael dos Anjos has brought his strength and conditioning to unparallel levels.
