This Saturday, UFC on FOX 17 will bring an epic lightweight title fight when current champ Rafael dos Anjos fights Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone for a second time. Dos Anjos won a competitive decision over Cerrone two and a half years ago, but since then, Cerrone has racked up 8 straight victories in the UFC to warrant a title shot. But before we can break into dos Anjos vs. Cerrone, let’s take a look at what to expect from the three contests on the main card that will be leading to the main event, as well as the odds of these fights. This UFC on FOX card will be live on FOX with the prelims being shown on Fox Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass.
Randa Markos (-185) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+160)
Stepping up to make her UFC debut is the Polish sensation Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Undefeated as a professional, Kowalkiewicz represents Garcie Barra Lodz from Poland, and will be looking to kickstart her UFC career with a win over TUF 20 competitor, Randa Markos.
Both Markos and Kowalkiewicz are still green in their MMA endeavors, but Markos will enjoy having the spotlight experience as she has not only competed on The Ultimate Fighter, but also twice in the UFC (coming off a decision win over Aisling Daly in April). With her only wins coming by decision or armbar, Markos is very much an unfinished product, but so is Karolina. In fact, both Markos and Kowalkiewicz have more submission wins than they do stoppages, but are scrappy fighters who don’t shy away from exchanges on the feet.
Both have gone the distance several times throughout their careers, and neither fighter has been known to aggressively pursue the finish. While this could change and become a big factor, Karolina has displayed some good footwork and mobility – look for this to be the big factor of the fight. Expect Markos to try and capitalize on a potential grappling advantage by pushing forward and looking to wrestle, but I predict Karolina will stay mobile and land counters when she sees fit. I see this fight going all fifteen minutes, and being a solid showing from the Polish prospect Karolina Koalkwiewicz. She won’t cruise easily as Markos is definitely a tough fighter, but look for her to just be one step ahead throughout the contest.
Verdict: Karolina Kowalkiewicz via Unanimous Decision
Michael Johnson (-475) vs. Nate Diaz (+380)
In one of the most intriguing match ups of the night, sluggers Michael Johnson and Nate Diaz will square off in what should be an intense fight between two top ranked lightweights. Johnson, coming off of a shocking, yet controversial, upset loss to Beneil Dariush, will look to rebound with a win over long-time contender and former title challenger Nate Diaz.
2-3 in his last 5 outings, Diaz will be fighting to stay relevant in a match up many people are picking Johnson to win. The big question is whether Diaz’s style remains effective or not. I have no doubt he is motivated, will show up with the usual mean-mug, and will taunt his foe repeatedly, but when comparing these two I see very little advantage for Nate Diaz outside of catching Johnson slipping in a grappling exchange. While Johnson has experienced these “slip-ups” in the past (most noticeably against Reza Madadi), Johnson has been maturing rapidly, and is becoming a well-rounded fighter with devastating punching power. He throws crisp combinations to the body and head relentlessly while showing off impressive athleticism, cardio, and power. In addition, Johnson has solid wrestling to help stay out of danger, and his hard-work put in with the Blackzilians has shown itself in Johnson’s previous outings.
On the other hand, Diaz works best in the pocket with his patented slap-boxing style. The Stockton Slap, as it’s referred to by many, is a Diaz-special that involves a mixture of half-power boxing combinations, pressure, and aggressive taunting. While this has worked against top-level opponents in the past, too many fighters have published the book on how to beat Nate Diaz. Look for Johnson to once again show off his maturity here as he brings a level-headed approach and tags Diaz up and down on the feet while avoiding the California-native’s pocket pressure. There’s always a chance Diaz can snag a neck or a leg in a scramble, but expect Johnson’s athleticism and wrestling to be enough to avoid that game. Diaz has taken a lot of damage throughout his career, so I’m not ruling out Johnson getting a stoppage, but the smart pick is Johnson via a smart but violent gameplan.
Verdict: Michael Johnson via Unanimous Decision
Junior dos Santos (-325) vs. Alistair Overeem (+265)
In a heavyweight showcase between two of the division’s best strikers, Junior dos Santos and Alistair Overeem finally will meet for a match up many have been wanting for a long time. Dos Santos is working on getting back into the title challenger’s seat now that the current champion, Fabricio Werdum, is someone dos Santos has knocked out previously. However, standing in his way is Alistair Overeem, one of the scariest fighters with an ever-expanding arsenal of offensive weapons. For Overeem, he’s hoping the two-fight winning streak he’s on now is the consistency that he has been looking for his entire UFC career. Whoever wins this fight could very well be next in line for the UFC heavyweight title.
Despite being a large underdog, Overeem finds himself in a very winnable fight here. Not only do I place Overeem’s technical skill set above dos Santos’s, but the power that these two generate in their strikes should at least level the playing ground to even odds. With that said, dos Santos is the more proven fighter who isn’t known to make so many small mental mistakes like Overeem. Dos Santos is a driven competitor who is willing to walk through the flames to get his belt back, but unfortunately that could mean taking more damage than he is used to. Against Stipe Miocic, dos Santos showcased some underwhelming striking defense as Miocic was able to land nearly at will. Dos Santos will always have his punching power, and given his sturdy chin, look for dos Santos to be one-punch away at all times from winning this fight.
The real x-factor coming into this fight will rest on Overeem. At this point in his career, Overeem has come out with so many different looks and gameplans that we honestly don’t know what he will try to do. What we do know is that Overeem has been training with Greg Jackson for a little over a year now, and besides for his upset loss to Ben Rothwell, he has looked very effective. Between two devastating strikers in dos Santos and Overeem, I believe the battle will come down to unpredictability. I heavily favor Overeem in this aspect as he has a plethora of kicking techniques under his belt, as well as a very devastating clinch game. Dos Santos is primarily a boxer who will throw the occassional kick (sometimes a spinning wheel kick, as seen against Mark Hunt), but has a tendency to become very predictable. Look for Overeem to showcase his variety in this fight and keep dos Santos guessing throughout the bout. Also, expect some heavy clinch work from Overeem too as he throws hard knees to the body and head while trying to avoid the boxing game of dos Santos. I’ll pick The Reem in a mild upset, and to fight for the heavyweight title in his next bout.
Verdict: Alistair Overeem via 2nd Rd TKO
*Stay tuned for a full breakdown of Rafael dos Anjos vs. Donald Cerrone for UFC on FOX
