These are UFC prelim predictions for UFC on Fox: Johnson vs. Bader coming live this Saturday in Newark, New Jersey!
The fight card on Fox is headlined by number one contender bout in the light heavyweight division. Anthony “Rumble” Johnson, a knockout artist, will be taking on a guy who has been steadily climbing up the ranks, vying for due respect – Ryan Bader. But before all the great action can occur on Fox, it needs to be set up on Fox Sports 1, that’s where these UFC prelim predictions come into play! Here’s what to expect this Saturday:
Alex Caceres vs. Masio Fullen
These UFC prelim predictions are going to start with a fantastic match up here as a personal favorite of mine, Alex “Bruce Leeroy” Caceres takes on the Mexico-native, Masio “Lobo” Fullen. While Caceres may be on a three fight skid, and only holds a 10-8 professional MMA record, he is a very innovative and tricky fighter. He moves with a light touch, and while his shots don’t seem to pack much power, his finesse is enough to land and slide out of the way. Caceres is at his best when he’s wrapped around his opponent, which is where I think he’ll wind up against Fullen, who has shown to be susceptible to the takedown. We saw Fullen struggle to mount anything defensive (or offensive) when taken down by Makwan Amirkhani in his last sighting. While Caceres doesn’t have the type of pressure or wrestling technique that Amirkhani does – he has the craftiness. Look for Caceres to perhaps spend some time exchanging with Fullen long enough to set up a takedown. From there, Caceres should be able to snag the submission in round one or two.
George Sullivan vs. Alexander Yakovlev
In the welterweight division, 3-1 UFC George Sullivan is slowly getting his name on the map while Alexander Yakovlev will look to capitalize on the momentum he gained after decisioning Gray Maynard nearly a year ago. Sullivan has a very strong grappling game which he uses to smother his opponents and batter them from the top position. While he has quite a few wins by decision, he does consistently deal damage whenever he’s given room. The issue he will face in this fight is finding the takedowns against Yakovlev. The Russian moves very elegantly and almost always uses defensive circling to avoid the takedown. Lately, Yakovlev has been just fine outlanding his opponents and avoiding the shot en route to decision victories, and he should be able to do that again here unless he abandons this approach. If he does, expect Sullivan to capitalize and smother Yakovlev for a decision. I don’t think that will happen though as Yakovlev seems to know his countering style works well against grappling-heavy fighters (besides Demian Maia). Yakovlev by decision.
Dustin Ortiz vs. Wilson Reis
This is a very intriguing match up in the UFC flyweight division, but for me it’s one of the easier UFC prelim predictions to make on the card. Dustin Ortiz may only have a 4-2 UFC record, but one of those losses was to Joe Benavidez, and it was a very close contest. Ortiz has the potential to be a real elite fighter, and on top of that, I’ve been hearing fantastic things about how much more analytical he has become since entering the UFC. Wilson Reis, while he used to be an EliteXC champion, hasn’t really had many shining moments in the UFC outside of a submission win over Scott Jorgensen. Also 4-2, Reis is a phenomenal grappler, but hasn’t quite managed to get the other aspects of his game up to par. This lack of well-roundedness is what leads me to pick Dustin Ortiz so convincingly. I’m not sure if Ortiz will seek out the finish, but he’ll atleast get the decision as he out-strikes and out-wrestles Reis for fifteen minutes.
Kevin Casey vs. Rafael Natal
In the middleweight division, we have two very skilled grapplers going head to head. Much like the Ortiz-Reis match up, I find myself coming to a quick decisive evaluation and pick. While Casey is known to be an absolute wizard in the Brazilian jiu-jitsu game, Natal has much more of a developed, battle-tested MMA game than Casey does. While Casey didn’t have much of a showing in his last fight which was stopped 11 seconds in due to an eye poke, Natal has racked up three consecutive wins over middle-tier competition. Casey has shown issues with his cardio as well as his striking defense, so look for Natal to be more than capable of outboxing Casey. Even if it goes to the ground, Natal is a very strong grappler in his own right and probably holds a size advantage. I think Natal will outbox Casey and outclass him at least for a decision, if not a ground and pound TKO late in the fight.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
Again, we have a match up between two fantastic grapplers – this time in the lightweight division. Aubin-Mercier made his debut dropping a split decision to fellow Canadian Chad Laprise, but has gone 3-0 since then with two submission wins. Aubin-Mercier is a smothering grappler who imposes his physical size and strength on his opponents. He likes the dirty, sloppy fight, and has the grit to outlast opponents when the going gets tough. Ferreira is a more precise thinker – he throws piston-like combinations and has a very aggressive ground game. The only thing holding him back is his physicality – he looked undersized against Dustin Poirier, and was controlled by Beneil Dariush. I expect Aubin-Mercier to be able to take Ferreira down and control him. He may not have the offensive tools to put the Brazilian in any sort of trouble, but it should be enough to edge him a decision. Ferreira has a chance on the feet if he can let his hands go as we’ve seen glimpses of great striking out of him, but Aubin-Mercier is good at getting out of the danger zone and into the close range fight. I’ll take the Canadian by a split decision.
Tarec Saffiedine vs. Jake Ellenberger
Capping off the prelims on Fox Sports 1 is a bout that has been in the making for quite some time now. We last saw Saffiedine eating a knuckle sandwhich from Rory MacDonald back in October of 2014 – while he looked to be able to hold his own against the elite welterweight, who knows what type of form he’ll be in this weekend. Luckily for him, Jake Ellenberger’s form has taken a considerable downfall over the past couple years. Ellenberger is 1-4 in his last 5 and doesn’t seem to be evolving or adding really anything to his game. He’s still a power puncher with a decent takedown game, but the scrambles are where he has been taken advantage of. On the feet, he is prone to grouping himself into a defensive shell, and not firing off the vicious combinations that he has in his pocket. Saffiedine is a precision striker with thunderous leg kicks, and tight punches. While we haven’t seen nearly enough of Saffiedine in recent years to accurately see how far he will go in the UFC’s stacked welterweight division, I do think he has what it takes to get past Ellenberger. I fear it will be another disappointing loss for Ellenberger; who’s chin has got to be deteriorated by now. Saffiedine by KO.
That’s all for UFC prelim predictions. Stay tuned for more UFC on Fox: Johnson vs. Bader coverage!
