The No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (31-2) challenge the No. 16 UMBC Retrievers (24-10) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament at Spectrum Center. The game is scheduled to start at 9:20 p.m. ET on Friday, March 16, 2018.
Virginia opened as a 21.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 121.5 points.
UMBC Retrievers vs. Virginia Cavaliers ATS Prediction
The Retrievers come in on a high note after barely hanging on to beat the Vermont Catamounts in the , 65-62. UMBC’s 6.2 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Vermont, who had a rate of 20.7. The Retrievers’ mark was better than their season average of 15.6, while the Catamounts’ was above their season average of 15.3. With 27 points on 10-for-23 shooting, Jairus Lyles was the top scorer from either team.
In the , the Cavaliers beat the No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels, 71-63. Virginia’s 6.3 turnover percentage was their largest strength over North Carolina, who had a rate of 13.7. The Cavaliers’ mark was better than their season average of 12.7. Kyle Guy was Virginia’s leading scorer with 16 points on 7-for-15 shooting.
Ball security could play an integral role in this meeting. Virginia commits the fifth-fewest miscues in the nation (turnover percentage of 14.2 percent), while the pesky defense of UMBC forces the 38th-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 21.5 percent). Furthermore, the Retrievers, who rank 317th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.198), will clash against the Cavaliers, who rank 37th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.192).
Ty Jerome has averaged 12.8 points, 4.0 assists and 1.6 steals over the last five games for Virginia.
UMBC Retrievers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Free Pick
Free Basketball Tip: SU Winner – Virginia, ATS Winner – UMBC, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
UMBC ranks 31st in three pointers attempted per game (26.3) while Virginia ranks 247th (18.9).
The Cavaliers rank 13th in rebounds allowed per game (30.6) while the Retrievers rank 213th (36.2).
Virginia ranks second in steals allowed per game (3.9) while UMBC ranks 150th (6.4).
The Cavaliers rank first in assists allowed per game (8.8) while the Retrievers rank 130th (13.2).
Virginia is 38th in the NCAA with 2.6 blocks allowed per game while UMBC is 49th with 2.7 blocks allowed per game.
Bettings Trends:
The Retrievers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.4, up from 4.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Cavaliers have scored an average of 67.8 points per game (0.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 60.4 points per game (7.0 above their season average).
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