The No. 7-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels (10-2) look to extend their nine-game home winning streak when they take on the UNC Greensboro Spartans (4-8), who have dropped six in a row on the road. The game gets underway at 6:00 pm ET on Monday, Dec. 28 and will air on ESU and ES3.
The Tar Heels won big over Appalachian State 94-70 in their last game. Brice Johnson led all scorers on the team with 22 points on 9-for-12 shooting. The Spartans, meanwhile, are coming off a 58-52 loss to North Carolina State in their last outing. Diante Baldwin had a good shooting night, leading the team with 13 points.
Johnson has been playing at a high level as of late for the Tar Heels, averaging 20.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, and 0.8 blocks over the last five games.
The battle on the backboards could prove decisive, pitting strength against strength. North Carolina is among the nation’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking 29th in OR% at 37.4%. Meanwhile, UNC Greensboro ranks 35th in the nation at corralling defensive rebounds with a DR% of 74.9%. Moreover, foul-shooting opportunities could prove to be quite rare for the Spartans. They are 350th in the nation in FTA rate (22.0), while the Tar Heels are among the nation’s least foul-prone teams (allowing a rate of just 25.5, ranking 17th in the country).
North Carolina is a considerable 27-point favorite at home and the Over/Under (O/U) for this matchup is set at 154 points. The Tar Heels enter the game with records of 10-2 Straight Up (SU) and 4-6-2 Against The Spread (ATS). The Tar Heels come into the game with the seventh-ranked scoring offense in the nation, averaging 86.3 points per game. The Tar Heels have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the 43rd-ranked rebounding team in Division I, averaging 41.2 per game, while the Spartans rank 287th in the nation with 34.2 per game. The Tar Heels, sporting the second-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.89), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team.
On the other side, UNC Greensboro has a SU record of 4-8 and an ATS record of 2-3. Don’t expect UNC Greensboro to give away the ball much on offense, where its 11.2 turnovers per game ranks 38th in the country.
This is the first meeting of the season for North Carolina and UNC Greensboro. The last time they played, North Carolina came out on top, bringing its SU record to 2-0 over the Spartans. Additionally, North Carolina leads the matchup ATS with a record of 2-0.
Predictions: SU Winner – UNC, ATS Winner – UNC, O/U – Over
Notes
North Carolina is 2-6-2 ATS in its last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of North Carolina’s last 7 games.
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
North Carolina is one of the top-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 86.3 points per game (ranked seventh). UNC Greensboro, on the other hand, allows 70.2 points per game (ranked 164th).
North Carolina won its last game by a 24-point margin. In games decided by a margin of 18 points or more, UNC Greensboro is 2-1. North Carolina is 6-0 in blowouts this season.
On average, North Carolina has 72.0 possessions per game and scores 1.199 points on each possession. UNC Greensboro has both fewer possessions (68.7) and scores fewer points during those possessions (1.009).
The UNC Greensboro Spartans average an effective field goal percentage of 49.0% this season. The North Carolina Tar Heels have a winning 5-2 record in games where opponents have an eFG% of 49.0% or greater.
On average, the North Carolina Tar Heels attempt 17.0 three point field goals per game and the UNC Greensboro Spartans attempt 25.0. In games where they attempt at least 20 three pointers, North Carolina is a perfect 5-0, while UNC Greensboro has a poor record of 3-8.
The North Carolina Tar Heels rank second with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.89, while the UNC Greensboro Spartans rank outside the top 100 (162nd) with an A/TO of 1.07.
North Carolina, the 43rd-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 41.2 rebounds per game. UNC Greensboro does worse, ranked 287th with 34.2.
UNC Greensboro ranks 257th in offensive rebounds, while North Carolina ranks at 50th in defensive rebounds.
North Carolina averages a forced turnover percentage of 18.9% this season. When the UNC Greensboro Spartans suffer a turnover rate equal to or exceeding this, the team is winless with a 0-5 record.
