The key to uncovering Saratoga secrets at the upcoming meet will involve hard work like everything else but in the end those ingredients will go a long way in picking winners and making money at this prestigious meet.
The meet opened Friday July 22, and will close on September 5, 2016.
Mother Nature will come into play at this meet for sure and we all know the weather will come. It can ruin a grass schedule quicker than you can say ‘flash thunderstorm’, and just like on the dirt track, all turf courses can play different when they get some moisture seeping in.
Speed is much better at Saratoga when the grass is firm but if there is some moisture in the grass, closers have to be given an advantage.
If a horse has won on the Saratoga dirt or on either of the turf courses, give that runner his due when he shows up this meeting.
Bettors have to resist the temptation to bet off of Belmont Park form. Those races can play toward closers but tactical speed and the ability to maintain contact to the leaders is pivotal at Saratoga.
Saratoga has also been called the Graveyard of Favorites, but the fact of the matter is that favorites win their share generally.
A good handicapper must also try to identify key races before they become super obvious. If one is not ahead of the curve as far as figuring out which races project live, then the information is much less useful.
Just like at most other venues, speed is extremely potent going short on dirt and you can go wire-to-wire going long on dirt under the right circumstance.
On the grass, it can pretty much be pick a number at the top of the lane. The fields will be competitive, with comebackers, Europeans, and shippers mixed in with those coming up from Belmont.
One thing to pay attention to is the main track only runners. They will be designated in the Racing Form as such and will be in the outside slots generally. If the rains come, and grass races are taken off the sod, these horses are prime time contenders. First off the race will be losing quite a bit of luster as the top bred grass runners are gone and the fields will be in all likelihood short and sweet and compact.
Don’t be scared to take shots with comebackers at this meet. All the pretty people have likely instructed-their well-paid conditioners to save some live runners for this meet. Nothing can be finer than to take a nice little contingent down to the winner’s circle before dinner and drinks at some fancy restaurants around town.
As far as the humans are concerned, certain trainers will dominate including last year’s leader Todd Pletcher. He sent out 173 starters during the meet in 2015 and he greeted 34 of them in the winner’s circle.
Chad Brown sent out 31 fewer horses last year but he only lost the training title by 3 victories and 53% of his runners ran in the money
Some less than fashionable barns also thrived at the Saratoga meet last year. Barclay Tagg, who trained Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide, only saddled 19 runners last year but 7 won and 5 others ran in the money.
Players have to respect everything Anthony Dutrow sends out. Last year he saddled 20 starters and 7 won and 85% ran in the money.
Trainer Brad Cox runs horses all around the country and he means business wherever he shows up. He didn’t bring a huge string to Saratoga last year, he only sent out 13 horses, but 4 won for a clever 31%-win rate.
Conditioners James Day and Lisa Lewis also must be respected at this meet. Combined, they saddled 15 horses at Saratoga last year and 6 won.
Class prevails at Saratoga year in and year out so never take for granted the racer that has some success in his form that may have occurred months previous to this meet.
For players that like to follow jockeys, there will be a consistent handful of riders that will excel this meet. Defending riding champion Irad Ortiz Jr. will get his share of very live mounts once again. John Velazquez, who rides first-string for Pletcher, will be near the top of the standings but the rider that will give Ortiz a run for his money is Javier Castellano.
Be patient, pay attention and cash.
