The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (17-13) head to San Diego State to take on the Aztecs (22-8) in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring. Action gets underway at 10:00 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 5 and can be seen on CCS.
The Aztecs won big over New Mexico 83-56 on Tuesday. Malik Pope was the game’s high scorer with 20 points on 6-for-7 shooting. The Runnin’ Rebels, meanwhile, are coming off a 79-74 win over Wyoming on Saturday. Derrick Jones Jr. led the team in scoring with 23 points on 6-for-11 shooting.
Jones Jr. and Patrick McCaw have upped their production over the last five games for the Runnin’ Rebels. Jones Jr. has averaged 15.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.2 blocks during that stretch, while McCaw has put up 14.2 points, 10.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 2.6 steals, and 2.0 three-pointers.
Points could be at a premium in this matchup between two of the nation’s best defenses. San Diego State ranks second in the nation in defensive efficiency (91.8), while UNLV is 13th (96.1). It will also be a tale of two tempos, as the up-and-down Runnin’ Rebels are ranked 15th in possessions per game, with the methodical Aztecs at 331st.
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Aztecs winning the first matchup 67-52. In the loss, Stephen Zimmerman Jr. had a double-double with 14 points and 10 rebounds.
The Aztecs enter the game with records of 22-8 Straight Up (SU) and 12-11-3 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have only managed a record of 3-7 ATS. San Diego State has averaged 80.1 points per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 67.4. The San Diego State defense has done poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 80.8 points per game, well above their season average of 60.2. Teams have to fight for open shots against the Aztecs, who have the best opponent field-goal percentage in the country at .373.
On the other side, the Runnin’ Rebels have 17-13 SU and 13-16 ATS records. The Runnin’ Rebels have been struggling of late. In their most recent 10 games, their scoring has dropped to 69.5 PPG, compared to 67.4 for the duration of the season. The Runnin’ Rebels average 71.3 points allowed per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 60.2 points per game during that span. The Runnin’ Rebels have one of the best opponent field-goal percentages in the nation at .408.
Following the Aztecs’ latest win over UNLV, their SU record rises to 7-3 over UNLV in their most recent meetings. Additionally, San Diego State holds the advantage ATS with a record of 6-4. Neither San Diego State nor UNLV has led in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, or three-pointers) over their most recent five games.
Predictions: SU Winner – UNLV, ATS Winner – UNLV
Notes
UNLV averages 77.8 points per game this season. San Diego State is one of the highest-ranked teams in points allowed, giving up just 60.2 points per game (ranked fourth).
San Diego State won its last game by a 27-point margin. In games decided by a margin of 18 points or more, UNLV is 6-0. San Diego State is 5-1 in blowouts this season.
The San Diego State Aztecs have a defensive rating of 91.8 (ranked second), while the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels have an offensive rating of 105.3 (ranked 197th).
UNLV has an average field goal percentage of 44.3%. San Diego State is a winning 2-1 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The San Diego State Aztecs rank higher based on their field goal percentage (272nd) than their effective field goal percentage (290th). The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (155th) than their field goal percentage (168th).
UNLV ranks 62nd in assists, recording 15.3 per game. San Diego State performs worse at 338th with 10.5 assists per game.
San Diego State ranks 103rd in offensive rebounds, while UNLV ranks 51st in defensive rebounds.
UNLV ranks 13th in steals per game with 8.3. When San Diego State allows 8 or more steals, the team has an even 5-5 record.
