Old rivals meet again on the college gridiron as the (10) USC Trojans invade Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, to get down with the (16) Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The contest is set to go off on Saturday, October 21st at 7:30 p.m. EST and can be watched on ABC for your evening college football entertainment. As of now, the Fighting Irish are -3 point home favorites and the game’s over/under is at 65.5.
The USC Trojans are heading into South Bend after they squeaked by the Utah Utes 28-27 in the Coliseum. The game marked the third time that a Trojan victory came down to the waning minutes of the last quarter to decide it all. Many had the Trojans as their dark horse pick to win it all this season but now their really starting to wonder. Nevertheless, USC still only has one loss on their record and are still in line to make the College Football Playoffs.
On the other hand, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been a nice surprise for the college football world this year. Nobody expected them to have as an explosive offense as they do. Also, nobody thought that they would have only one loss on their record heading into this age-old rivalry. Consider this, the Fighting Irish’s only loss this season was a point affair at home against the Georgia Bulldogs. That defeat is starting to look better and better as the season grows older.
These teams met in the Coliseum last year and the Trojans won by a score of 45-27. At that point, the Trojans were on a roll and one of the three best teams in the FBS.
(10) USC Trojans (6-1)
Like I mentioned above, the USC Trojans may be 6-1 but they have their doubters and I happen to be one of them. Especially, at the quarterback spot where everybody thinks they are the strongest. I have not been impressed with the play of Heisman Trophy hopeful, Sam Darnold. I’m not saying he’s been bad, I’m just saying I’m not convinced he can elevate this offense enough to compete for a national title.
Overall, Sam Darnold has tossed the ball around 260 times and completed 163 of those throws for 2,063 yards. Here is what concerns me, he does have 15 touchdown passes but he also has nine interceptions. The decision-making process is what I see lacking and that is the difference-maker when you face-off against elite clubs. This is a huge game for Sam Darnold. He either will rise to the occasion and jump back into Heisman contender status or his mistakes will lose him that opportunity.
When the Trojans start handing the ball off to their two exceptional backs, that’s when they are at their best. Ronald Jones and Stephen Carr might be the most talented running duo in Division I football. Jones is definitely the number one option, with 102 carries for 640 yards and eight trips to pay-dirt. Carr is a nice second option, recording 309 yards on 52 carries and three more touchdowns.
Basically, three Trojan receivers do most of the damage to opposing secondaries. Together, the trio has racked-up just under 100 catches for almost 1,250 yards and nine scores. Wideout Deontay Burnett is the big dog of the pack, reeling in a team-high 49 balls for 629 yards and six touchdowns.
On defense, the USC Trojans have been rather average. In fact, they come in ranked 68th in total yards allowed (385.4 ypg), and 89th against the pass (238.7 ypg). It’s the same with the front seven, ranking 60th versus the run while allowing 23.7 ppg, which is 49th in the nation.
(16) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1)
This past weekend was one of the crazier ones that we have seen in college football in quite some time. Once again, there were plenty of upsets that made you shake your head a wonder what the hell is going on around here. Four top ten teams went down to upset losses. Now, schools like Notre Dame, who could find their way into the title picture with a big win in games like this.
Quarterback Brandon Wimbush has been a pleasant surprise for the fans of the Fighting Irish. The dual-threat signal-caller has been doing it with his arms as well as is legs. Wimbush has completed 69 of his 132 passes for 782 yards with six touchdowns and two picks. He also keeps opposing defenses honest by running the ball for another 402 yards and eight more touchdowns.
Quietly, running back Josh Adams is becoming one of the nation’s best out of the backfield. The talented tailback has toted the rock 86 times for 776 yards. He also is averaging nine yards a touch and has reached the end zone five times. Combined with Brandon Wimbush, the two have the Irish ranked 6th in the nation with 308 rushing yards a game.
The weak spot on this club is at the wide receiver position. Obviously, they will be looking to have a big game against the Trojan’s questionable secondary. Three wideouts have tallied over 500 yards receiving and three scores. Equanimeous St. Brown leads this group with 211 yards and two scores. Alize Mack’s 17 catches are tops for the squad.
Like the USC Trojans, the Fighting Irish have been average on defense through their first six contests in 2017. The front seven sits 42nd in the country, surrendering 134 yards on the ground a match. The secondary is worse, giving up 231 yards through the air (71st). Overall, the unit stiffens in the red zone and is holding teams to only 16.8 points a contest (15th).
Prediction
Prognosticators have the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as a field goal favorite in South Bend this Saturday. I think that line is right on the money. This is a huge game for both schools so I expect we will see some intense action to wrap up a day of college football. With that being said, I think the one loss to the Georgia Bulldogs tells me a lot about the Fighting Irish. It tells me they were able to compete up front with one of the country’s toughest. For that reason, I like buying this down to 2.5 and taking the Irish to cover at home. Also, Sam Darnold hasn’t proved to me this year that he can come up big in a game like this. His mistakes could really haunt him in this one.
The over/under has climbed to 65.5 from 58 points on Monday. That movement is enough to keep me away from a game that could be a 32-28 affair or a 38 to 35 one. Instead, I suggest just playing Notre Dame to find a way to win this game by a field goal. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Trojans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
The Trojans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
The Under is 4-1 in the Trojans last five overall.
The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall.
The Over is 6-2 in the Fighting Irish last eight overall.
The Favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five overall.
