Offense meets defense when the Denver Nuggets (7-1) welcome the Utah Jazz (4-4) to Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 3, 2018, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
The last time the Jazz played, they were defeated by the Memphis Grizzlies, 110-100, and failed to cover as 7-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (210) were under the O/U total of 222. One of Memphis’ biggest strengths was getting to the free throw line. They had 34 free throw attempts, while Utah had 25. Ricky Rubio led Utah in scoring with 22 points on 9-for-17 shooting.
The Nuggets had no trouble getting past the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last game, 110-91, comfortably covering as 5-point favorites. The game’s total points (201) came in well under the O/U total of 217.5. The Nuggets had an extraordinary offensive rebounding percentage of 38.9 (above their season average of 27.0) and held the Cavaliers to an effective field goal percentage of 0.440 (below their season average of 0.496). Juancho Hernangomez was the game’s high scorer with 23 points on 6-for-10 shooting from the field.
These two teams split four games last season. In the most recent matchup, the Nuggets won 99-91. Denver had a better free throw rate (0.105 vs. 0.036). Utah, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (19.5 vs. 8.2).
Utah holds records of 4-4 straight up (SU) and 4-3 against the spread (ATS). Jazz games tend to go over the projected point total (71.4 percent).
Meanwhile, Denver is 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS. Unlike Utah, Nuggets games have typically gone under the total (75.0 percent).
This showdown pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Dating back to the 2017-18 season, Denver ranks fourth in offensive efficiency and Utah ranks second in defensive efficiency.
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets Betting Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Each team is strong when holding the opposition to under 100 points, as Utah is 38-8 and Denver is 19-2.
The Nuggets are 46-27 when they reach the century mark, while the Jazz are 47-17.
Utah ranks first in assists allowed per game (19.8) while Denver ranks 24th (24.7).
The Jazz rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.0) while the Nuggets rank 23rd (47.4).
Denver ranks fourth in second chance points per game (14.3) while Utah ranks 23rd (11.7).
The Jazz rank fourth in fast break points allowed per game (10.1) while the Nuggets rank 22nd (13.0).
Utah ranks fourth in steals per game (8.4) while Denver ranks 21st in steals allowed per game (7.9).
The Jazz rank 15th in points off turnovers per game (16.4) while the Nuggets rank 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.5).
Utah ranks fifth in three pointers allowed per game (26.8) while Denver ranks 12th (28.8).
The Jazz rank 11th in blocks per game (5.1) while the Nuggets rank 12th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
Denver is second in the league with 41.6 rebounds allowed per game while Utah is third with 41.8 rebounds allowed per game.
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