The Dallas Mavericks (2-3) challenge the Utah Jazz (3-2) at American Airlines Center. The game gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 28, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 217 points with Utah opening as a 4-point favorite.
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction
The last time the Jazz played, they comfortably covered the 1-point spread against the New Orleans Pelicans, 132-111. The total points for the game (243) were well over the projected point total of 217. The Jazz made 30 of their 37 free throws (81.1 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.580 (above their season average of 0.515). With 28 points on 8-for-14 shooting, Ricky Rubio was the game’s high scorer.
The Mavericks were beaten by the Toronto Raptors in their last contest, 116-107, but did cover as 11-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (223) came in just over the O/U total of 221.5. Toronto’s 26.1 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over Dallas, who had a rate of 20.8. The Raptors’ mark was above their season average of 24.9, while the Mavericks’ was below the 27.3 mark opponents have averaged against Toronto this season. With 18 points, 15 rebounds and five assists, Dallas’ DeAndre Jordan had a good game.
Dallas might struggle to put up points as they go head-to-head against one of the NBA’s best defenses. Dating back to the 2017-18 season, Utah ranks second in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks rank 23rd in offensive efficiency.
Utah holds records of 3-2 straight up (SU) and 2-2 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Jazz have no tendency in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Dallas has an excellent record ATS (3-2), despite being 2-3 SU. Mavericks games have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (60.0 percent).
The Jazz won all three matchups against the Mavericks last season. In the last game, Utah won 119-112. The Jazz knocked down 15 of their 16 free throws (93.8 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (10.5 vs. 13.3).
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks Free Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Utah is 38-8 and Dallas is 16-13.
The Jazz are 46-15 when they reach 100 points, while the Mavericks are 20-31.
Utah ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (10.1) while Dallas ranks 27th (14.6).
The Jazz rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.8) while the Mavericks rank 26th (45.6).
Utah ranks fourth in steals per game (8.5) while Dallas ranks 24th (7.1).
The Jazz rank eighth in blocks per game (5.1) while the Mavericks rank 27th (3.9).
Utah ranks 13th in points in the paint per game (44.8) while Dallas ranks last (39.3).
The Mavericks rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.9) while the Jazz rank 17th (16.9).
Utah ranks first in assists allowed per game (19.8) while Dallas ranks 17th (23.6).
The Jazz rank fourth in three pointers allowed per game (26.8) while the Mavericks rank 15th (29.4).
Utah ranks 23rd in second chance points per game (11.5) while Dallas ranks 29th (10.6).
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