In a matchup that features a couple of teams that are nationally ranked in the Top 21 overall, the No. 21 Boise State Broncos (-3) are gearing up to take on their in-conference counterpart No. 14 Utah State Aggies at Albertsons Stadium. ESPN will broadcast the action and the game is scheduled to start at 10:15 p.m. ET.
Utah State Aggies vs. Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
Utah State is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 3 points. The Aggies are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Broncos are -140. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 68 points, and should one side can find paydirt early, it would probably create a reasonable betting opportunity in-game.
The opening line was -3 while the O/U has yet to change since it was set initially at 68.
The profitable Aggies are 9-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 5.0 units so far in 2018. The team has recorded an Over-Under mark of 8-2-1. The Broncos have lost 0.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-4-1 ATS and own an even O/U record of 5-5-1.
The Aggies have gone 10-1 straight up (SU), including 7-0 SU against MWC opponents. The Broncos are 9-2 SU overall and 6-1 SU in conference play.
The Aggies just got a 29-24 victory over Colorado State last week. Jordan Love completed 15 passes for just 169 yards and one touchdown. Gerold Bright (89 yards on 13 rush attempts) and Darwin Thompson (48 yards on 13 carries) led the running attack while Ron’quavion Tarver (six receptions, 69 yards) and Bright (three catches, 23 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Boise State is coming off of a 45-14 win over New Mexico. Brett Rypien completed 17-of-27 passes for 222 yards and three touchdowns. Alexander Mattison (145 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) led the running game while Sean Modster (nine receptions, 129 yards, three TDs) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each squad has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Utah State’s run the ball on 52.9 percent of its offensive possessions while Boise State has an overall rush percentage of 51.3. Having said that, the Aggies have produced 217 rush yards/game (including 221 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 34 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Broncos haven’t been quite as productive, as they’re putting up 159 rush yards per game (157 in conference) and have 20 total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Aggies may hold an advantage in terms of RB efficiency. Their backfield has produced 5.7 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Broncos have recorded 4.2 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 3.7 to opponents.
The Aggies offense has averaged 282 yards in the air overall (308 per game against conference opposition) and has 25 passing TDs so far. The Broncos have produced 306 pass yards per game (292.0 against MWC foes) and have 29 total pass scores.
Defensively, Utah State has allowed 140 rush yards and 234 pass yards per game. The Boise State defense has allowed 226.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 128.9 yards per game on the ground. The Aggies are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.53 to opponents, while the Broncos have given up a 6.51 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Love is up to 2,354 yards this year, and has connected on 65 percent of his 285 attempts with 20 scores through the air and only four interceptions. He has a sparkling 8.64 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 11.82 over the last two games.
The Aggies have tried to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. The tagteam of Darwin Thompson (750 rush yards, 13 rush TDs, 221 receiving yards) and Gerold Bright (723 rush yards, seven rush TDs, 99 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have been big focal points in the Utah State offensive scheme.
In the other locker room, Brett Rypien has managed to complete 239-of-355 passes for 3,001 yards, 27 TDs and six INTs. Rypien’s ANY/A stands at 8.20 for the year and 8.50 over his past two outings.
The Broncos also like to keep their RBs involved. In addition to Alexander Mattison (146 receiving yards), Sean Modster (789 receiving yards and seven receiving TDs) and A.J. Richardson (661 receiving yards and eight TDs) have seen quite a few touches recently.
These two schools met a year ago with the final result being a 41-14 victory for Boise State.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Prediction: Utah State Aggies at Boise State Broncos
SU Winner – Utah State, ATS Winner – Utah State, O/U – Over
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Boise State D has sacked opposing QBs 36 times this season. Utah State has produced just 27 sacks.
Boise State has lost four fumbles this season while the Utah State offense has lost 11.
The Aggies offense has created eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Broncos have put up 12 such plays.
The Utah State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Boise State has given up eight such plays.
The Utah State offense has created 28 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Boise State has created 11 such runs.
Both defenses have allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards and 47 running plays of 10+ yards.
The O/U for Boise State’s previous matchup was set at 61.5. The under cashed in the team’s 45-14 triumph over New Mexico.
In its last three contests, Boise State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Over its last three matches, Utah State is 2-1 ATS.
The Over/Under for Utah State’s last game was set at 66.5. The under cashed in the team’s 29-24 victory over Colorado State.
As a team, Utah State has averaged 7.1 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 6.4 over its last two.
Boise State has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.8 over its last two.
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