It will be a battle between MVC opponents when the Indiana State Sycamores (5-7) welcome the Valparaiso Crusaders (9-4) to Hulman Center. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 28, 2017.
Indiana State is a 1-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 140.5 points.
Valparaiso Crusaders vs. Indiana State Sycamores Betting Prediction
In the Crusaders’ last outing, they were defeated by the UC Riverside Highlanders, 73-60. Getting to the free throw line was one of UC Riverside’s largest advantages. They made 42 trips to the line, while Valparaiso went just 19 times. Max Joseph was Valparaiso’s leading scorer with 15 points on 5-for-9 shooting.
The Sycamores lost to the Elon Phoenix in their last matchup, 73-68. Elon’s 0.169 free throw rate was their biggest strength over Indiana State, who had a mark of 0.116. The Phoenix’s mark was above their season average of 0.163, while the Sycamores’ was below their season average of 0.284. Indiana State’s Jordan Barnes finished with 18 points, seven rebounds and six assists in the contest.
Indiana State might struggle to put up points as they face off against one of the nation’s best defenses. Valparaiso currently ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, while the Sycamores rank 268th in offensive efficiency. Also, the Crusaders rank 20th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.315), while the Sycamores rank 309th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.296).
Valparaiso holds records of 9-4 straight up (SU) and 6-4 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total high when the Crusaders are involved, as 70.0 percent of their games have finished under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Indiana State owns records of 5-7 SU and 3-6-1 ATS. Contrary to Valparaiso, Sycamores games have a tendency to go over the total (70.0 percent).
After the Crusaders won the sole game against the Sycamores last season, 89-71, these teams will meet for the first time this year. The Crusaders had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (38.5 vs. 17.1) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.515 vs. 0.448).
Valparaiso Crusaders at Indiana State Sycamores Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Valparaiso, ATS Winner – Valparaiso, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Valparaiso is 5-3 ATS with 6 unders and 2 overs.
Indiana State is 2-2 ATS at home with 3 overs and 1 under.
Valparaiso ranks 31st in rebounds per game (40.0) while Indiana State ranks 194th in rebounds allowed per game (37.1).
The Crusaders rank 45th in blocks allowed per game (2.7) while the Sycamores rank 113th (3.8).
Indiana State averages 24.0 three pointers per game, which ranks 89th in the NCAA. Valparaiso ranks 153rd in three pointers allowed per game (22.6).
The Crusaders rank 43rd in steals allowed per game (5.4) while the Sycamores rank 106th (6.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Valparaiso is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Indiana State is 1-3 ATS with 4 overs over their last five games.
The Crusaders have been outscored by an average of 14.0 points in their last five games. For the season, Valparaiso has defeated opponents by an average of 8.8 points.
During their last five games, the Sycamores have scored an average of 74.6 points per game (0.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 74.2 points per game (0.5 below their season average).
