The Milwaukee Panthers (18-11) welcome the Valparaiso Crusaders (24-5) in a matchup that pits the Horizon’s fourth-ranked offense against the top-ranked defense. The game begins at 7:00 pm ET on Friday, Feb. 26 and will air on ES2 and ES3.
The Panthers easily got past Youngstown State 87-51 on Monday. Matt Tiby led all scorers on the team with 19 points on 6-for-11 shooting. The Crusaders, meanwhile, are coming off a 90-74 win against Detroit on Sunday. Alec Peters claimed his 11th double-double of the season with 32 points and 11 rebounds.
Tiby has really been playing well recently for the Panthers, averaging 19.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.6 three-pointers over the last five games.
This battle pits one of the nation’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses, as Milwaukee currently ranks 26th in offensive efficiency and Valparaiso is first in defensive efficiency. Moreover, the Crusaders are among the nation’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking 31st in OR% at 35.7%. But the Panthers rank 19th at corralling defensive rebounds with a DR% of 75.2%.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams, with the Crusaders winning the first matchup 68-56. Vashil Fernandez was a top performer in the victory with 14 points, nine rebounds, and two blocks.
The Panthers enter the game with records of 18-11 Straight Up (SU) and 14-13-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The Panthers are one of the best in Division I in terms of free throws made, making a superb 16.0 per game. The Panthers, sporting the eighth-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.56), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. Over their past 10 games, the Milwaukee defense has been playing lights out, only allowing 60.8 points per game, well under their season average of 72.0.
Across the court, the Crusaders have 24-5 SU and 15-12 ATS records. Valparaiso is one of the better rebounding teams in Division I. The Crusaders average 41.8 rebounds per game, making them the sixth-best team in the country for that category. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Crusaders on the defensive end. They allowed 75.5 points per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 60.3.
Valparaiso beat Milwaukee in their most recent meeting this season, bumping its SU record over their most recent meetings to 8-2. Furthermore, Valparaiso holds the advantage ATS with a record of 7-3. Valparaiso held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers three times in the last five matchups. On the other side of the court, Milwaukee never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – Valpo, ATS Winner – Valpo
Notes
Milwaukee averages 79.2 points per game this season. Valparaiso is one of the best teams in points allowed, giving up just 60.3 points per game (ranked sixth).
Valparaiso scores 72.8 points per away game (ranked 92nd). Milwaukee ranks a poor 172nd in points allowed at home, allowing 70.3 points.
The Valparaiso Crusaders have the best defense in the country, giving up just 88.5 points per 100 possessions. The Milwaukee Panthers have the 26th-ranked offense, scoring 114.9 points in the same number of possessions.
On average, Milwaukee has 68.9 possessions per game and scores 1.149 points on each possession. Valparaiso has both fewer possessions (67.8) and scores fewer points during those possessions (1.111).
Milwaukee has an average effective field goal percentage of 53.8%. Valparaiso is a losing 1-2 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
The Milwaukee Panthers average 25.0 three point attempts per game and are 14-10 when attempting at least 20 in a game. The Valparaiso Crusaders average 22.0 attempts and have a stellar record (16-5) when attempting 20 or more.
The eighth-ranked team in the category, Milwaukee has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.56 this season. Valparaiso ranks outside the top 100 at 142nd with an A/TO of 1.11.
The Valparaiso Crusaders average 41.8 rebounds per game and are ranked sixth. The Milwaukee Panthers average 36.1 rebounds per game, ranked 177th.
The Valparaiso Crusaders rank 49th in offensive rebounds. The Milwaukee Panthers rank 105th in the nation in defensive rebounds.
On average, Milwaukee forces a turnover rate of 15.5%. When Valparaiso turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a superb 17-4 record.
