It figures to be a low-scoring affair as the Valparaiso Crusaders (16-3) travel to Wright State to play the Raiders (11-8). The game starts at 7:00 pm ET on Friday, Jan. 22 and will air on ES3.
The Raiders won a close one over Detroit 77-76 on Monday. Mark Alstork was the team’s high scorer with 21 points on 6-for-12 shooting. The Crusaders, meanwhile, are coming off a 96-65 win over Youngstown State on Monday. Darien Walker led the team in scoring with 18 points on 6-for-9 shooting.
Alec Peters has been on fire over the last five games for the Crusaders, averaging 20.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals, and 2.4 three-pointers.
The inefficient offense of Wright State (280th in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 99.4) will square off against the stingy defense of Valparaiso (second in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 86.8). The Crusaders figure to have the advantage on that end of the court.
Wright State is an eight-point underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 123 points. The Raiders enter the game with records of 11-8 Straight Up (SU) and 8-8 Against The Spread (ATS). The most recent ten-game stretch for the Raiders has gone great. Over that span, Wright State is averaging 72.6 points per game, well over their season average of 66.6. Transitioning to the Wright State defense, teams routinely struggle to score points against the Raiders, who allow only 63.8 points per game. Teams really have to fight for three-pointers against the Raiders, who have allowed only 5.0 three-pointers to opponents per game.
Across the court, Valparaiso has a SU record of 16-3 and an ATS record of 10-6. Valparaiso is one of the better rebounding teams in Division I. The Crusaders average 42.1 rebounds per game, making them the 17th-best team in the country for that category. The Crusaders are one of the top defensive teams in the nation, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 60.0 points allowed per game. Valparaiso’s defense is one of the top in the nation, with opponents shooting only .371 from the field. The Crusaders are in for a physical game against Wright State. The Raiders are not afraid to send opponents to the free throw line, averaging 22.5 fouls per game.
This is the first meeting of the season for Wright State and Valparaiso. The last time they played, Valparaiso came out on top, bringing its SU record in their most recent games to 7-3. The Raiders hold the advantage ATS with a record of 7-2-1. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Valparaiso held the edge in all three of these categories once in the last five meetings. Wright State never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Valpo, ATS Winner – Valpo, O/U – Under
Notes
Wright State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games.
Wright State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wright State’s last 5 games when playing Valparaiso.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wright State’s last 6 games when playing at home against Valparaiso.
Wright State scores an average of just 66.6 points per game (ranked 301st). Valparaiso ranks fourth in points allowed, giving up 60.0 points per game.
Wright State scores just 70.4 points per home game (ranked 299th). Valparaiso ranks 23rd in points allowed on the road, giving up 66.1 points.
Valparaiso won its last game by a 31-point margin. In games decided by a margin of 18 points or more, Wright State is 3-2. Valparaiso is 8-0 in blowouts this season.
The Valparaiso Crusaders rank 83rd for their offensive rating of 110.5. The Wright State Raiders have a defensive rating of 96.7 (ranked 60th).
Wright State has an average field goal percentage of 43.2%. Valparaiso is a losing 1-3 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Wright State Raiders and the Valparaiso Crusaders both rank higher in average effective field goal percentage when compared to their field goal percentages. Wright State is 223rd and 191st in the nation for FG% and eFG% respectively, while Valparaiso is 148th and 132nd in these categories.
Valparaiso, the 99th-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 4.2 per game. Wright State does worse, ranked 345th with 1.6.
Wright State ranks 346th in offensive rebounds, while Valparaiso ranks fourth in defensive rebounds.
On average, Wright State forces a turnover rate of 20.1%. When Valparaiso turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a stellar 7-1 record.
