We are only four days away from the start of the NBA moratorium period, during which the teams can start negotiating contracts with free agent players, so there’ll be a lot of activity during the weekend and beyond. The NBA free agency is a period when a lot of teams form their future shape, but it stretches to the past as well – preparation for this summer began in earnest years ago.
The prizes for the teams that have built respectable situation while preserving the cap space to hunt an elite free agent are good. Not counting players that are not really on the market but enter the NBA free agency with the intent to restructure their deals, there are still plenty of high profile players that could improve most of the teams.
Stars of the NBA Free Agency
Durant, Curry, Nowitzki and even Paul Gasol are expected to re-sign with their current teams without even considering a change.
The main guys to talk to were supposed to be Gordon Hayward, Paul Millsap and Kyle Lowry, but the market significantly changed after Chris Paul and Blake Griffin decided to opt out of their deals with the Los Angeles Clippers and enter the pool. Each of these players will command close to a max deal and some younger options like Otto Porter Jr. and Nerlens Noel (both restricted free agents) will sign on some very lucrative contract.
As much as the cap increase in the previous years signified an era of equality, a lot of that space has already been locked up and there are that many NBA teams that can afford to sign these stars, especially considering that most of them will look beyond just the paycheck.
Bottom teams like the LA Lakers, Brooklyn Nets and even the Philadelphia 76ers will have to settle for mid tier stars and will look to overpay to lure in the big guns. San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets vowed to make a run at some attractive targets, but would need to make significant changes to the roster in order to do so.
The Toronto Raptors have its own issues with three of their top 8 guys entering the NBA free agency and not enough cap space to get them all back. Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are heavy taxpayers. Of the relatively serious contenders, only the Boston Celtics have enough room to sign one max player and they are linked to Hayward and Griffin the most. Miami Heat is another team that’s going to have plenty of options, despite the relatively low roster potential.
Other teams will be looking to add as much help as they can get at a discount, and once the big spenders get the marquee players they can, they’ll look to surround them with more quality players that won’t command hefty contracts. The value generated by a size of a contract is possibly the most important stat to look at for the team executives, but also us in the betting industry that refuse to be swayed by the public perception of NBA star players (often based on the contract size and media appeal).
That’s why I’m taking a look at the second tier of the free agents to see if there are players whose uniform change will go largely unnoticed but can still provide good contribution on much cheaper contracts.
Veterans looking for a ring
Ring chasing veterans are the annual category in this regard, albeit reserved for the teams that would probably not need any improvement to contest anyway. With the Warriors and the Cavaliers repeatedly going back to the NBA Finals, it’s reasonable to expect that the players from this group will look to join them, even if they have to pay them and not vice versa.
The group isn’t big though. Zach Randolph comes to mind, but it’s unclear whether he’d accept a lowballing contract. He’s a rugged, old school player with just a season or two left, but can still provide when going against the second units. Nene, Kyle Korver, Vince Carter and possibly Jason Terry (if he decides to continue playing) would be nice additions as one year rentals.
Injury risks
High injury proneness significantly diminishes players’ appeal. Chronic tendency to play only 60 games or a recent serious injury can drop player to a lower paying tear. That has happened with Stephen Curry’s first extension and will probably cost extra bucks to this summer’s free agents like Danilo Gallinari, Tyreke Evans, Rudy Gay and George Hill. Of these, only Hill can provide extra value for the team that signs him up, but considering that he’s 31 and that this is going to be his last big contract, he won’t come cheap.
Low profile guys
With about 300-400 players in and around the NBA league, it’s not that hard to track them all, so there are very few secrets in terms of which players are hidden gems. Some players do blossom in different roles and situations, so sometimes the teams believe that a player could be a better fit with them. Even more times, they get caught by a player’s performance during a contract year – overpay him and get stuck with his immovable contract.
Free agents that should not get their asking price on the previous season’s performance include Dion Waiters, Jonathon Simmons, Joe Ingles, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dwyane Dedmon. Some of them can be nice role players on the right team, but are what they were before, only the money they will be asking increased. The best value NBA players are exactly the opposite – the ones nobody talks about, with talent but not enough playing time.
I’ll give you one for each position.
At the point guard, there’ll be a lot of competition at the top for the services of Paul, Lowry, Hill and even Holiday and Teague. Mills will likely stay with the Spurs, but one very decent player can be had at near mid-level exception – Darren Collison. Always dependable, he can serve in a backup role for almost any team in the league.
At shooting guard, look no further than Thabo Sefolosha. He’s an established starter in this league that has fallen out of favor with the Hawks and wouldn’t get enough playing time. He gives your team a good outside defender and is a hardworking guy that won’t need the ball to contribute.
James Johnson has had a decent season with the Miami Heat, but is always overlooked despite his contribution across the board. If he can be had on a decent contract, he’d help many teams. He’s a big wing and can play the four, so if a team is looking for a more natural wing, Bucks’ willingness to spend on Tony Snell should be tested.
At power forward, I like JaMychal Green. He has carved out a place for himself as a sturdy big without much damning weakness. He’s probably not a starter caliber of a player but has shown improvement during his time with the Grizzlies.
Centers are not a big necessity and most of the teams are happy to settle for some youth at the position. Run the floor, jump and protect the paint as much as possible. This means that this position won’t have great summer in terms of seeing green. Those teams that would like to strengthen the position and can’t spend a lot should strongly consider Mike Muscala and Donatas Motiejunas, two relatively young and mobile backups, but those two won’t come as cheaply as Aron Baynes, who had a silent season with the Pistons. Baynes is more of a conventional center, but plays both ways and isn’t afraid of the contact. He’s 30, so he still has plenty of fuel to burn, but could be willing to sign a shorter contract to revive his NBA career.
So there you have it. Hardly a fear evoking unit, but more of a useful one. Sefolosha and Johnson are the two players that are potential game changers with some NBA teams, so I’ll mark their signing for further evaluation for preseason team rankings. It looks like this might be a hot summer, so I’ll make sure to cover all the significant moves for you.
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