This year, Christmas has indeed come early for MMA fans.
Starting Thursday, December 10th, there are three events on three consecutive nights offering up an abundance of sensational fights, that it’s hard to remember an equivalent moment in the history of the sport.
Today’s focus is on the upcoming main event of UFC Fight Night: VanZant vs. Namajunas
Originally scheduled against Joanne Calderwood (#9), Paige VanZant will instead be facing a big step up in competition after Calderwood had to pull out of the fight and was replaced with Rose Namajunas (#3).
For VanZant, an interesting figure that’s received a fair amount of criticism in her time in the sport (most of which you would have to say stems from areas outside of her pugilistic abilities), the fight offers another opportunity to leap forward in an already rapidly growing career.
It also offers her intense scrutiny.
Signing an independant Reebok sponsorship deal at 20 (something UFC President Dana White attributed to her ‘it’ factor), while having only one fight in the UFC, VanZant has received a heavier focus than most MMA fighters at matching positions in their careers.
The attention of course is a double-edged sword. On one hand, she is under much more pressure to succeed than many of her ‘4th-fight in’ peers. While on the other, she’s about to become one of the youngest headliners ever in the sport…
For the sakes of this article, we’ll focus less on her haircut habits and more on her chances against a very game opponent in Namajunas.
Ultimate Fighter finalist Rose Namajunas is a fighter’s fighter. Like a PRIDE era Wanderlei Silva, she comes out with mean intentions, showing great footwork to dart in and land combinations of hooks and uppercuts before bouncing back and resetting. Most recently besting Angela Hill at UFC 192 in the first round, Namajunas showed a slick ground game, winning with a beautiful standing rear-naked choke.
Yet, one of the issues Namajunas faces is her susceptibility to getting hit. Her willingness to stand and exchange, combined with a tendency to hook her punches with wild swings leaves her open to counters or to a more polished, quicker striker.
Rose has also shown to have problems with pressure. In her title fight against Carla Esparza, Namajunas was put on the backfoot and struggled. Repeatedly held against the cage and taken down, she eventually wilted under the stress and lost. Rose does well against fighters who give her space, allow her movement and let her set the pace. She struggles against grinders.
Enter ‘12 Gauge’ Paige.
Constantly aggressive, constantly in your face and constantly landing strikes, on paper you would have to say VanZant has a real chance against her higher ranked combatant. In her last two fights, Paige has shown an excellent ability to get her opponent in the clinch and win the fight with volume strikes of knees and uppercuts.
The fight has interesting parallels with the recent shocking bout between Holly Holm – Ronda Rousey.
With that fight, we saw a striker use her footwork and movement to circle away from the aggressive clinch-brawler and keep herself from being held against the cage. If Namajunas applies a similar tactic, you can see her keeping VanZant at bay with front kicks to dictate the range, and using her footwork to continuously stick and move.
The winner will push themselves further towards the top of the division, and therefore towards a title shot against UFC Women’s Strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
That fight, however, is another story.
