The VCU Rams (22-8) head to Dayton to take on the Flyers (23-6) in what should be a low-scoring game. Action begins at 8:00 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 5 and can be seen on CCS.
The Flyers enter this game hoping for similar success after barely hanging on to beat Richmond 85-84 on Tuesday. Scoochie Smith was the team’s leading scorer with 26 points on 8-for-11 shooting. The Rams, meanwhile, are coming off a 70-60 win against Davidson on Wednesday. Mo Alie-Cox was the team’s top scorer, accounting for 18 points on 7-for-9 shooting.
Alie-Cox has been hot for the Rams, averaging 14.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.8 steals, and 3.0 blocks over the past five games.
Baskets could be hard to come by as Dayton ranks 15th in the nation, allowing just 96.4 points per 100 possessions, while VCU is 16th (96.5). Moreover, the Rams are among the nation’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking 24th in OR% at 33.2%. But the Flyers rank fourth at corralling defensive rebounds with a DR% of 76.4%.
The Flyers come into this game 23-6 Straight Up (SU) and 13-15-1 Against The Spread (ATS).
In the other locker room, the Rams have records of 17-10 ATS and 22-8 SU. VCU has a good SU record over the last 10 games (7-3), but has a 2-7-1 record ATS. The Rams allow very few three-pointers on defense with 5.0 given up per game.
The conference foes will be squaring off for the first time this season. In their most recent meeting a season ago, VCU came out on top, but the win was not enough to overtake VCU in the head-to-head series. Its record is now 1-3 SU. With a 3-1 record, the Rams also have the advantage ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – VCU, ATS Winner – VCU
Notes
Dayton scores an average of just 73.3 points per game (ranked 140th). VCU ranks 56th in points allowed, giving up 67.0 points per game.
Dayton scores just 74.2 points per home game (ranked 168th). VCU ranks 75th in points allowed on the road, giving up 71.4 points.
The VCU Rams have a defensive rating of 96.5 (ranked 16th), while the Dayton Flyers have an offensive rating of 107.6 (ranked 133rd).
With 68.1 possessions and 1.076 points per possession, the Dayton Flyers perform worse on both metrics than the VCU Rams. VCU averages 69.8 possessions and 1.109 points per possession.
The Dayton Flyers average an effective field goal percentage of 52.7% this season. The VCU Rams have a winning 7-3 record in games where opponents have an eFG% of 52.7% or greater.
Dayton ranks 94th in assists, recording 14.7 per game. VCU ranks 85th with 14.8 assists per game.
Dayton, the 70th-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 4.3 per game. VCU does worse, ranked 144th with 3.6.
The VCU Rams rank 73rd in offensive rebounds, and the Dayton Flyers rank 25th in the nation in defensive rebounds.
Though VCU is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TO% of 23.1% (ranked second), Dayton has an exceptional 8-2 record SU when it has a TO% of 23.1% or greater.
