In this article, we have prepared for you an in-depth analysis of the opening duel of the German Bundesliga Round 12 that will take place on Friday in Stuttgart between the home team and guests from Dortmund.
The international break that finalized the list of the national teams that will be attending the 2018 Soccer World Cup in Russia is over and we’re getting back to the domestic team competitions. The opening duel of Week 12 in Germany will take place at Mercedes-Benz Arena in Stuttgart and it will feature the best host (VfB Stuttgart has 13 points earned at home soil – tied for best in the league along with Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig) and one of the best visitors (Dortmund team has 11 points earned on the road and ranks second in this segment nationally).
Prior to the break, Stuttgart got defeated by Hamburger SV on the road (1:3), while Dortmund recorded second straight home loss, this time against bitter rival Bayern Munich (1:3).
VfB Stuttgart vs. Dortmund
Three-Way: 1: VfB Stuttgart +425; X: +359 Draw; 2: Dortmund -133 at BetDSI Sportsbook
Spread +1: VfB Stuttgart -116; Dortmund +112
Total +3: Over -133; Under +127
VFB STUTTGART
The VfB Stuttgart team has had a relatively solid season so far and they are on the right way of securing the survival in the top tier of German soccer, having in mind that they just got promoted. Still, they need to improve if they want to keep up the good work, especially on the road where they haven’t earned a single point yet (0-0-6 record, 3-13 goal difference). On the other side, they are 4-1-0 at home and I’m sure that the fans are enjoying the brag about being the best home team in the league.
Currently, they rank at the No. 12 spot in the league with 13 points earned, 4-1-6 record and a 10-14 goal difference (7-1 at home). 45% of Stuttgart’s matches had over 2.5 goals in total while no home game yet had over 3.5 goals in total. In 40% of their home matchups, they’ve managed to score at least one goal in both halves while in 27% of their overall duels they’ve managed to concede at least one goal in both halves. Both teams scored in only 20% of their games and most common result at home was 1:0 win (occurred twice) while most common score at half-time was 0:0 (also occurred twice).
Coach Hannes Wolf prefers the 4-2-3-1 scheme from which he steps away very rarely. Usual starters are Beck, Baumgartl, Pavard, and Insua in the defensive line while Aogo and Burnic who was sent off in the last round against HSV, mostly start as defensive midfielders. Asano, Akolo, and Ozcan often play up front, providing the assistance for striker Daniel Ginczek. Midfielder Chadrac Akolo tops the team in scoring with three goals while Ginczek and Simon Terrode have two each in their accounts. Dennis Aogo is the top assister with two while passing segment belongs to defenders Benjamin Pavard and Timo Baumgartl with 656 and 539 total passes. Goalkeeper Ron-Robert Zieler has 127 shots against, 27 saves and four clean-sheet games so far while Santiago Ascacibar tops the team and the league in bookings with five yellow cards at the moment.
Dzemis Burnic is suspended for the next match (red card) while Anastasios Donis’s (dislocated shoulder) timetable for return is set for later this month. Alexander Meyer’s (thigh) and Matthias Zimmermann’s (cruciate ligament) status is unknown while Carlos Mane (knee) and Christian Gentner (head) are listed as day to day. Marcin Kaminski (ankle) should be available in few days while Holger Badstuber (thigh) is back in training and could be ready for Friday’s showdown.
DORTMUND
Borussia Dortmund squad has stringed together four winless games and they are in a desperate need of a result that would end this nefarious streak. The downfall started last month when constantly poor results in the UEFA Champions League translated to the Bundesliga resulting in a 2:3 home loss by RB Leipzig team. The matchup at Commerzbank-Arena that followed only deepened the crisis as the Yellow-Blacks gambled away the two-goal lead to finish the game with a 2:2 draw. Then came the unpopular Hannover visit (4:2 loss) while the final blow got delivered prior to the break by their biggest rival, Bayern Munich at home soil.
This drought in points earned resulted in a big drop on the league table and currently, the team ranks at No. 3 spot with 20 points, behind leader Bayern and second-ranked RB Leipzig. Their overall record is 6-2-3 (3-2-1 on the road) and their goal difference is 28-14. Dortmund has scored in each of their last 8 matches and they’ve managed to score an opening goal in 73% of those games. On the other side, they’ve conceded two goals or more in each of their last four matches but they also managed to score two goals or more in each of their last four away duels. 82% of their overall showdowns had over 2.5 goals in total and 36% of their games had over 4.5 goals in total while every third road match had over 2.5 goals at half-time. Both teams scored in every second Dortmund’s visit and most common score away was 3:0 win (occurred three times).
Dutch manager Peter Bosz has been experimenting with the formation lately but it mostly comes down to the 4-2-3-1 scheme with Schmelzer, Toprak, Sokratis and Bartra as defensive linemen and Castro and Weigl as defensive midfielders. Pulisic, Kagawa, and Yarmolenko along with Aubameyang up front have mostly offensive assignments. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the team’s leading scorer with ten goals (2nd in the league) while Philipp Maximilian has five so far. Mahmoud Dahoud collected team-high three assists while Andriy Yarmolenko, Gonzalo Castro, and Mario Goetze have two each. Passing segment is being dominated by defenders Sokratis and Omer Toprak with 682 and 640 total passes while goalie Roman Burki has 95 shots against, 31 saves and five clean-sheet games so far. He is also the most undisciplined player in the team with two yellow cards.
Hendrik Bonmann (knee) should be back during this month while Eric Durm’s (hip), Sebastian Rode’s (groin), Lukasz Piszczek’s (knee) and Alexander Isak’s (knee) status is unknown. There has been some late development including the status of Marco Reus’s cruciate ligament injury and he is now expected to be back one month earlier than previously thought (late February 2018) and that’s a pretty good news for the fans.
VfB Stuttgart vs. Dortmund – Match Prediction
These two foes haven’t met during the last season considering that VfB Stuttgart competed in the second tier of German Bundesliga but the year before Dortmund dominated the matchups with two wins and 7-1 goal difference (4:1 home win, 3:0 road win). The guests from Dortmund are a bit more successful in last decade recording 11 wins opposed to eight by Stuttgart while eight matches finished with a draw. Last time Stuttgart emerged victorious against Dortmund at home was seven years ago (31/01/2010; 4:1 win).
The final result here is very hard to predict because it’s still unknown how did Borussia’s players react to this resting period and if they are going to be able to end the skid while on the other side Stuttgart is undefeated at home. This is why my best guess here goes to totals.
My pick: Over 3 goals (-133)
