The final matchup of Round 10 of the German Bundesliga will take place at Mercedes-Benz Arena in Stuttgart with a very interesting showdown between the home squad and visitors from Schwarzwald region. The Whites are coming off from a road loss against RB Leipzig last week in the league while Freiburg recorded a 1-1 home draw against the team from German capital, Hertha. During the midweek, both teams recorded 3-1 victories in German Cup competition (DFB Pokal), Stuttgart on the road over Kaiserslautern and Freiburg at home over Dinamo Dresden.
Last week’s Sunday matchups although predicted, were not high-scoring ones as three duels featured only four goals in total. I sincerely doubt that the two games scheduled for next Sunday will have more than that and under 2.5 goals in total for both games look like a good deal. Bear this in mind when picking the outcomes on Sunday.
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg
Three-Way: 1: VfB Stuttgart -104; X: +280 Draw; SC Freiburg +375
Spread -0.5: VfB Stuttgart -109; SC Freiburg +102
Total +2.5: Over -116; Under +108
VFB STUTTGART
Stuttgart team has only one win in last four games, which came against the worse team in the league FC Koln at home (2:1). Nevertheless, they are still holding fine and away from the immediate danger but the reason for this is good performances in front of their own crowd. On the road, they are awful with five straight defeats and no points earned so far and that will have to change if they want to stay out of the danger and survival battle.
The team currently ranks at No. 13 spot in the league table with 10 points in nine matches and a 3-1-5 record (3-1-0 at home). Their goal difference is 6-11 (4-1 at home) and 67% of Stuttgart’s matches had under 2.5 goals in total while 75% of their home games had under 1.5 goals in total. Only 9% of team’s conceded goals were conceded at home while both teams scored in only 11% of their total duels. In 25% of their home games they’ve managed to score at least one goal in both halves while in 22% of their overall matches they’ve managed to concede at least one goal in both halves.
Head coach Wolf mostly uses 3-4-3 scheme with Baumgartl, Badstuber and Pavard as defensive linemen in front of goalkeeper Zieler. Beck, Ascacibar, Mangala and Insua mostly operate in the middle of the field while Asano, Terodde and Aogo play up front. Midfielder Chadrac Akolo is the teams’ leading scorer with three goals while Holger Badstuber, Anastasios Donis and Simon Terodde have one each in their accounts. Defender Dennis Aogo is the team’s top assister with two while passing segment belongs to defenders Benjamin Pavard with 504 and Timo Baumgartl with 422 total passes. Goalie Ron-Robert Zieler has 101 shots against, 21 saves and three games with a clean sheet so far. Most undisciplined players are Santiago Ascacibar with four and Simon Terodde with two yellow cards collected at the moment.
Anastasios Donis (dislocated shoulder) and Marcin Kaminski (ankle) are expected to be back in late November while Alexander Meyer’s (muscle) and Matthias Zimmermann’s (cruciate ligament) status is unknown. Holger Badstuber (muscle), Christian Gentner (head), Anto Grgic (knee) and Carlos Mane (knee) are all listed as day to day while Dennis Aogo (groin) is back in training.
SC FREIBURG
It’s hard to believe that team that managed to earn UEFA Europa League berth last season can perform so poorly but in Freiburg’s favor, they‘re not the worse squad that accomplished the same thing having in mind FC Koln. Uncertainty and unpredictability are the team’s main attributes this season as their only win so far came at home against a very strong Hoffenheim team (3:2), three weeks ago. After that, they were demolished by Bayern Munich at Allianz Arena 5:0, and then they managed to split points at home against almost equally poor Hertha squad (1:1). Nevertheless, Hamburg needs to hype up the number of “full-pray” games in order to avoid the bottom part of the league table.
They currently rank at No. 15 spot with eight points in nine games, just above the relegation line. They are 1-5-3 so far into the season (0-1-3 as visitors) and they score 0.67 and concede 1.89 goals per game (6-17 goal difference, 1-13 on the road). 44% of their matches had over 2.5 goals in total while 75% of their road games had over 3.5 goals in total. Every second road duel had over 4.5 goals in total while 25% of those showdowns had over 2.5 goals at half-time. Just to be clear, all these goals on the road are the proof of Freiburg’s leaky defense and not some efficient offense. Team also managed to concede at least one goal in both halves in 50% of their matches and in 44% of their games both teams scored.
Coach Streich prefers the unusual 5-2-3 scheme but this formation changes a lot during the course of the match, transforming itself to 3-4-3 and 4-3-3. Gunter, Soyuncu, Schuster, Lienhart and Stenzel are most often starters in the defense while Hofler and Frantz usually operate in the middle of the field. Terrazzino, Haberer and Niederlechner are in charge of the team’s attack. Florian Niederlechner tops the team in scoring with two goals while Janik Haberer, Nils Petersen and Caglar Soyuncu have one each. Nicolas Hofler collected team-high two assists so far while passing segment belongs to defender Philipp Leinhart with 299 and midfielder Julian Schuster with 293 total passes. Goalkeeper Alexander Schowlow has recorded 172 shots against, 37 saves and three clean-sheet games while Caglar Soyincu represents the most undisciplined player with three yellow cards so far. Only competition in this aspect provides Nicolas Hofler who has one yellow card and one red card so far.
Philipp Leinhart (knee) and Vincent Sierro (thigh) are expected to be back in action during the next month while Onur Bulut (thigh) and Manuel Gulde (back) should be available in a few weeks. Karim Guede’s (back) and Jonas Meffert’s (foot) status is unknown while Amir Abrashi (ankle), Marc-Oliver Kempf (hamstring) and Georg Niedermeier (back) are all back in training.
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg – Match Prediction
Stuttgart is almost perfect at home and Freiburg is nearly awful on the road making this an easy pick. Still, under 2.5 goals in total might be a less risky deal but I just can’t see how can a team that scored only one goal while conceding 13 can get anything besides a defeat at Mercedes-Benz Arena in Sunday. We should also include this large number of Freiburg’s injured players into the equation making the Stuttgart’s full-prey game a no-brainer. I also doubt that Freiburg can score a goal here but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
My pick: Under 2.5 goals (+108)
Additional Pick: VfB Stuttgart (-104)
