The No.1-seeded Virginia Cavaliers (27-7) and No.9-seeded Butler Bulldogs (22-10) get together in the second round of the NCAA tournament at PNC Arena. Action gets underway at 7:10 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 19 and can be seen on TBS.
The Cavaliers played well in their last game, blowing out Hampton 81-45 in the First Round. Anthony Gill was the game’s leading scorer with 19 points on 8-for-13 shooting. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are coming off a 71-61 win over Texas Tech in the First Round. Kellen Dunham shot 8-for-15 and led in scoring with 23 points.
Dunham has been on fire for the Bulldogs, averaging 20.6 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals, and 3.8 three-pointers over the past five games.
Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play an integral role in this matchup. Virginia commits the eighth-fewest miscues in the nation (TO% of 15.2%), while Butler’s pesky defense forces the 25th-most (opponents’ TO% of 19.0%). Also, the Bulldogs’s 16th-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 115.9) will face off against the 16th-ranked defense of the Cavaliers (defensive efficiency of 97.6).
The Cavaliers enter the game with records of 27-7 Straight Up (SU) and 18-14 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 8-2 ATS. Virginia has been steady from the free throw line, shooting a superb .752. The Cavaliers, sporting the seventh-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.57), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. Crossing over to the defensive side of the court, teams really have to fight for three-pointers against the Cavaliers, who have allowed only 6.0 three-pointers to opponents per game.
On the other side, Butler has a SU record of 22-10 and an ATS record of 17-14-1. Butler performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning an 8-2 record. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Bulldogs. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.39. The Butler defense has been a problem for competitors, allowing only 7.0 field goals from three-point range per game.
Virginia and Butler have not played one another in a regular season matchup in recent years.
Predictions: SU Winner – Butler, ATS Winner – Butler
Notes
“Virginia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games “.
“Virginia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games “.
“The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Virginia’s last 14 games “.
The Virginia Cavaliers rank 14th for their offensive rating of 116.3. The Butler Bulldogs have a defensive rating of 101.6 (ranked 42nd).
The Butler Bulldogs average 69.3 possessions per game and 1.159 points per possession. The Virginia Cavaliers earn fewer possessions with 60.8, but they score more points with 1.163.
Ranked 21st in the nation, Virginia has an average effective field goal percentage of 54.7%. Butler is 4-5 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
The Virginia Cavaliers average 15.0 three point attempts per game and are 2-3 when attempting at least 20 in a game. The Butler Bulldogs average 18.0 attempts and have a solid record (7-3) when attempting 20 or more.
The seventh-ranked team in the category, Virginia has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.57 this season. Butler ranks 36th with an A/TO of 1.39.
On average, Virginia forces a turnover rate of 19.6%, ranked 17th in the nation. When Butler turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 4-2 record.
