The No. 16-ranked Louisville Cardinals (17-3) will try to slow down the Atlantic Coast’s top shooting team when they take on the No. 11-ranked Virginia Cavaliers (16-4) at KFC Yum! Center. Action starts at 1:00 pm ET on Saturday, Jan. 30 and can be seen on CBS.
The Cardinals come into this game hoping to repeat their last performance, defeating Virginia Tech 91-83 on Wednesday. Damion Lee led all scorers on the team with 29 points on 6-for-8 shooting. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are coming off a 72-71 win over Wake Forest on Tuesday. Malcolm Brogdon led the game in scoring with 28 points on 10-for-16 shooting.
It might turn into a shootout as a pair of the nation’s top offenses match up. Louisville ranks sixth in the country with 120.1 points per 100 possessions, while Virginia is 12th in that metric (117.9). Also, the Cavaliers’s 12th-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 117.9) will face off against the third-ranked defense of the Cardinals (defensive efficiency of 89.2).
The Cardinals enter the game with records of 17-3 Straight Up (SU) and 8-8 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a solid 8-2 SU record over their last 10 games, but have not fared as well ATS (3-7). The Cardinals are one of the best in Division I in terms of field-goal percentage, shooting a superb .491 from the field. The rebounding edge goes to the Cardinals in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 41.4 boards per game. Opposing teams know they’re in for a battle when they play Louisville’s stingy defense. The Cardinals are one of the top teams when it comes to defense, allowing just 60.0 points per game. The Cardinals have limited opponents’ efforts from beyond the arc, allowing 5.0 three-pointers made per game.
On the other side, the Cavaliers have been a poor bet so far, with a disappointing record of 7-11 ATS. Their SU record, 16-4, hasn’t been quite as bad. Virginia has a good SU record over the last 10 games (7-3), but has a 2-8 record ATS. The Cavaliers convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking 20th in the nation at .750. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Cavaliers. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.59.
The conference rivals will be squaring off for the first time this season. In their most recent meeting a season ago, Virginia came out on top, evening up the two teams’ head-to-head record (1-1). However, Louisville holds the advantage ATS with a record of 2-0.
Predictions: SU Winner – Lou, ATS Winner – Lou
Notes
Louisville is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisville’s last 6 games.
Louisville is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Louisville averages 81.0 points per game this season. Virginia is one of the best teams in points allowed, giving up just 61.9 points per game (ranked 10th).
Virginia has allowed an average of 66.6 points per away game this season. Louisville averages 83.9 points per home game, ranking 44th in scoring.
Virginia won its last game by a one-point margin. In games decided by a margin of three points or less, Louisville is 0-1. Virginia is 2-1 in close games this season.
The Louisville Cardinals have a defensive rating of 89.2, third-best in the country. The Virginia Cavaliers have a top-tier offense with an offensive rating of 117.9 (ranked 12th).
Louisville has an average field goal percentage of 49.1%, ranked 15th in the country. Virginia is undefeated (2-0) when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Louisville Cardinals and the Virginia Cavaliers both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. Louisville is 33rd and 15th in the nation for eFG% and FG% respectively, while Virginia ranks 22nd and 10th in these categories.
The seventh-ranked team in the category, Virginia has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.59 this season. Louisville ranks lower at 107th with an A/TO of 1.17.
The Louisville Cardinals are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 41.4 per game (ranked 23rd). The Virginia Cavaliers are outside the top 100 with 32.5 rebounds per game (ranked 320th).
On average, Louisville makes 7.4 steals per game. Virginia has a winning 3-1 record when it gives up at least 7 steals.
