The Atlantic Coast’s top team will be at home when the No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels (16-2) welcome the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (10-7) to Dean E. Smith Center. Action begins at 7:00 pm ET on Wednesday, Jan. 20 and can be seen on ES2 and ES3.
The Tar Heels enter this game hoping for similar success after topping North Carolina State 67-55 on Saturday. Kennedy Meeks was the game’s leading scorer with 23 points on 10-for-16 shooting. The Demon Deacons, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their demoralizing 83-55 loss against Syracuse on Saturday. Devin Thomas had a good game for Wake Forest, accounting for nine points, 13 rebounds, and two blocks.
The Tar Heels could have their way today, as their prolific offense faces off against one of the nation’s worst defenses. They currently rank seventh in offensive efficiency while Wake Forest ranks 313th in defensive efficiency. Furthermore, getting to the line could play a crucial role for the Demon Deacons. They rank 10th in the nation in FTA rate (48.1). However, the Tar Heels are among the best in the nation at keeping opponents off the charity stripe (ranking 29th at 27.3).
This one isn’t expected to be close when North Carolina, a big 17-point favorite, takes on Wake Forest. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at 166 points for this matchup. The Tar Heels come into this game 16-2 Straight Up (SU) and 7-9-2 Against The Spread (ATS). The Tar Heels have no trouble scoring as they rank second in the nation in offense with 86.4 points per game. The Tar Heels are one of the best in Division I in terms of free throw percentage, shooting an impressive .747 from the free throw line. Expect to see a lot of second-chance opportunities for North Carolina in this matchup, which is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 13.6 offensive boards per game. North Carolina is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.79.
As for their opponent, the Demon Deacons have records of 5-9-1 ATS and 10-7 SU. Wake Forest has not performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning a 2-6-1 record. Offensively, they average 78 points per game on the road, which is 32nd in the country.
These conference foes meet for what will be their first head-to-head battle of the season. North Carolina won the last game in the matchup, bumping its SU record to 7-3 over Wake Forest in their most recent meetings. The teams are even ATS, with a 5-5 record. North Carolina held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers one time in the last five matchups. On the other side of the court, Wake Forest never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – UNC, ATS Winner – UNC, O/U – Over
Notes
North Carolina is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games.
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of North Carolina’s last 10 games.
North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of North Carolina’s last 7 games at home.
North Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Wake Forest.
North Carolina hasn’t lost a game against any of its Atlantic Coast Conference opponents, sitting at 5-0. Wake Forest, on the other hand, has a losing 1-4 SU record against these teams.
North Carolina is one of the top-scoring teams at home, averaging 86.9 points per game (ranked 24th). Wake Forest, on the other hand, allows 76.3 points per away game (ranked 205th).
Wake Forest lost its last game by a 28-point margin. In games decided by a margin of 18 points or more, North Carolina is 7-0. Wake Forest is 0-2 in blowouts this season.
On average, North Carolina has 71.8 possessions per game and scores 1.203 points on each possession. Wake Forest has both fewer possessions (71.4) and scores fewer points during those possessions (1.070).
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons average an effective field goal percentage of 50.0% this season. The North Carolina Tar Heels have a superb 7-2 record in games where opponents have an eFG% of 50.0% or greater.
The North Carolina Tar Heels average 17.0 three point attempts per game, and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons attempt 19.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, North Carolina is a perfect 6-0, while Wake Forest also has a winning record (7-3).
The third-ranked team in the category, North Carolina has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.79 this season. Wake Forest ranks outside the top 100 at 243rd with an A/TO of .95.
North Carolina ranks 34th in rebounds per game with 40.9 and Wake Forest ranks 67th with 39.1 rebounds per game.
North Carolina ranks 68th in defensive rebounding. When it comes to offensive rebounds, Wake Forest ranks 58th.
On average, Wake Forest forces a turnover rate of 15.2%. When North Carolina turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a fantastic 6-1 record.
