NBA Preview: Warriors and Spurs Vie for the #1 Playoff Seed
Golden State Warriors (60-14) at San Antonio Spurs (57-16), 9:30 p.m. EST
Line: Spurs -4. Total 208.
The Spurs are 2.5 games behind Golden State for the #1 seed in the Western Conference and the entire league. San Antonio has to win this game tonight and then either win out or go 7-1 over their next 8 games to have a shot at overtaking Golden State at attain home court advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Spurs own the tiebreaker head-to-head with Golden State. If both teams finish with the same record, then San Antonio gets the #1 overall seed for the playoffs. The Spurs are only two games back in the loss column.
Golden State has the easier schedule, getting their three toughest opponents at home after tonight’s game. In fact, the Warriors finish their season with 6 out of their final 7 games at home.
I do not believe the Warriors are going to win out, so if the Spurs can run the table, they should earn the #1 overall seed for the postseason.
San Antonio catches Golden State in a favorable spot for the second consecutive meeting between these two teams. The Spurs are rested while Golden State is on the back-end of a back to back-to-back.
When they met on March 11, also at the AT&T Center, Warriors’ coach Steve Kerr decided to rest four players. They were playing for the second consecutive night after losing 103-102 at Minnesota the night before. Kerr sat Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. All four players made it known that they were not happy with that decision. The Spurs trounced Golden State 107-85 on national television.
That loss seemed to motivate the Warriors. They have not lost a game since that beatdown at San Antonio. The Warriors have won 8 straight games by an average margin of victory of 16+ points per game (PPG). They have won those 8 games by tightening up their defense.
The Warriors only allowed 96.3 PPG during that 8-game stretch. That number is down 8 points from their season average, which is now at 104.3 PPG allowed. Golden State is ranked #11 in points allowed per game. The Warriors are ranked #2 in defensive rating, which is impressive because they are ranked #3 in pace, which means opponents get off more shots against them than they do versus other teams.
San Antonio is ranked #1 in defensive rating and #3 in points allowed per game (98.1). Of course, the pace of their games is slower which means there are fewer opportunities for their opponents to score. The Spurs are ranked #26 in pace.
In the only other previous meeting this season, the Spurs blew out Golden State 129-100 at Oracle Arena on opening night in the NBA back on October 25. So the Warriors are trying to avoid a sweep despite a tough situational spot.
Golden State is 6-9 ATS (Against The Spread) on the back-end of back-to-backs this season. San Antonio is 5-2 in check-mark games, which are games where one team is rested and their opponent is playing their second game in as many nights.
However, Golden State has a knack for rising up in spots like this. On February 11, they played at Oklahoma City for the first time this season after playing at Memphis the night before. The Warriors won 130-114 in Kevin Durant’s much ballyhooed return to that city. The Warriors wanted to win that game for Durant and did just that despite the difficult situational spot as the Thunder were rested for that game.
I do not see a real strong motivational edge one way or the other for this game. Both teams clearly want to win as they hope to earn the #1 seed and home-court advantage for the entire playoffs.
I give a small edge to the Spurs to win and cover the small chalk.
As far as the total goes, the Warriors have been an under machine the last month. Golden State is 15-1-1 to the under their last 17 games. Kevin Durant has missed 15 of those games. I am not counting the game he got hurt against the Wizards as a game played because he played 93 seconds in that contest. The Spurs have gone under 3 of their last 4 games and their one over went over by half a point.
With all that said, I have a lean to the over as I think tonight is the night Golden State snaps their streak of 11 games without an over (10-0-1). They had a push on the total in the Sacramento game on March 24.
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