NBA Finals Preview: The Cleveland Cavaliers have their backs up against the wall for Game 3. LeBron James does not mind this spot though, as he is 4-1 when down 2-0 in the playoffs.
#1 Golden State Warriors (81-15) at #2 Cleveland Cavaliers (63-34), Wednesday, 9 p.m. EST
Line: Warriors -3. Total 226.
Series: Warriors lead 2-0.
The Cavaliers’ players and their head coach all said they had to play better after Game 1. Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue insisted they would play better in Game 2.
How could the Cavs play any worse after Game 1?
Cleveland had 20 turnovers, gave up 21 points off those turnovers, only shot 34.9% from the field and gave up 20 more shot attempts to the Warriors in Game 1.
That is just a portion of how bad things went for the Cavaliers. Cleveland was outscored 27-9 in fast-break points and 56-30 in points in the paint. The Cavs had 16 fewer assists than the Warriors and had no steals compared to 12 for Golden State.
Are those numbers bad enough for you?
Here is one more, the coup de grâce: Cleveland’s -16 turnover ratio in Game 1 is the worst turnover ratio in NBA Finals history.
Golden State “only” won 113-91 in Game 1. I say only because the carnage should have been a lot worse given the aforementioned negative statistics on the Cavaliers’ side of the ledger. However, the Warriors had two items on their side of the ledger that stood out as surprising disappointments.
Draymond Green only shot 3-for-12 (25%) for 9 points, while Klay Thompson shot 3-for-16 (18.8%) for 6 points. They combined to shoot 1-for-10 from three-point land in Game 1. However, both of them played stellar defense. In fact, when Thompson was the primary defender on defense, the man he was guarding shot 1-for-12 (8.3%) in Game 1.
I am sure some reporters scoffed when Stephen Curry said in the Game 1 post-game press conference that the Warriors could play better in Game 2. The statistics were overwhelmingly in Golden State’s favor. Kevin Durant went off for 38 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists. Curry chipped in with 28 points, 10 assists and 6 rebounds.
However, Green and Thompson were certainly going to play better on offense in Game 2 and that is exactly what they did.
Thompson shot 8-for-12 (66.7%) for 22 points while Green shot 4-for-8 for 12 points in Game 2. Green only had 12 points because he had his minutes limited due to foul trouble throughout the game.
Durant and Curry were huge again for the Warriors. Durant scored 33 points and added 13 rebounds and 6 assists while Curry messed around and scored a triple-double with 32 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds. Curry also added a dazzling dribbling display against LeBron James that ended in a highlight-reel layup that was played on ESPN’s SportsCenter for at least 24 hours.
Coach Lue and the Cleveland players kept their collective word from their Game 1 postgame comments. The Cavaliers did play much better in Game 2.
The Cavs got Golden State to turn the ball over 20 times in Game 2, compared to just 4 turnovers in Game 1. Cleveland scored 23 points off those turnovers. The Cavaliers had 11 fewer turnovers in Game 2 than they did in Game 1.
Cleveland had 15 steals in Game 2 compared to zero in Game 1. The Cavs had 30 fast-break points In Game 2, compared to 9 fast-break points In Game 1. The Cavaliers had 60 points in the paint in Game 2, compared to 30 points in the paint in Game 1. Cleveland had 27 assists in Game 2, compared to 15 assists in Game 1. The Cavaliers scored 113 points in Game 2, compared to 91 points in Game 1.
Kevin Love had 27 points in Game 2, compared to 15 points in Game 1. King James had a triple-double in Game 2, scoring 29 points, dishing out 14 dimes and grabbing 11 rebounds. LeBron is now averaging a triple-double in the series.
However, Golden State still cruised to a 132-113 victory in Game 2.
What on earth can the Cavaliers do now?
Cleveland did play significantly better in Game 2 as they improved in almost every team statistical category from Game 1. Yet, the Cavs still lost by 19 points.
How much better can the Cavaliers play in Game 3?
A lot of the talking heads on television are clamoring for the Cavs to slow down the pace of the game. The analysts and experts insist that the Cavaliers are playing into Golden State’s hands if they continue to play at a frenetic pace.
However, James made it clear on Tuesday that the Cavaliers are not going to change a thing. The Cavs are not going to slow down the pace of the game. King James said that Cleveland just has to play better.
The four players who absolutely have to play better for the Cavs are Tristan Thompson, JR Smith, Kyle Korver and Deron Williams. That foursome combined to score just 3 points in Game 1 and 16 points in Game 2. Thompson only has 8 rebounds and does not have a steal or a blocked shot in the series. It is imperative that these four guys make significant contributions in Game 3 or the Cavaliers will be one game away from being swept in Game 4.
From a handicapping perspective, there are several things to look at. Golden State is 29-1 in their last 30 games and have won a NBA record 14 straight playoff games. The team who has won the game in this series has covered the Vegas spread in all 15 games these two teams have played in the NBA Finals during this trilogy. Cleveland is 5-1 to the Over at home in the first quarter, first half and game this postseason.
LeBron has promised to keep the pace fast in Game 3. Even Coach Lue said the Cavaliers need to play even faster to create lanes for LeBron and Kyrie Irving to get to the rim frequently. I want to jump on this game total and take it over the 226 points. However, I also remember another quote from LeBron where he mentioned they need to play more physical against the Warriors. If Cleveland is able to exert some physicality on Golden State the same way they did with the Celtics at home, then we may see a slower pace in the second half. Both teams could wear down and the game total could stay under.
Despite a feeling-out process and very slow start in the first quarter of Game 1, that total still somehow hit 65 points. The early-series jitters were gone in Game 2 and both teams just went nuts in the first quarter. The pace of the first quarter in Game 2 was 31.75. If you project that out over four quarters, then you have an insane pace of 127 for the game. Game 2 actually finished with a pace of 106.4, which proves just how frenetic that first quarter was.
So I am going to take the first quarter over as I expect the pace to be crazy fast out of the gate again.
I want to jump all over the Cleveland moneyline or the Cavs with the 3 points or both. LeBron is 4-1 in Game 3’s after being down 0-2 in a playoff series. Last year, the Cavaliers were down 2-0 heading back to Cleveland after losing by 33 points in Game 2. The Cavs won by 30 in Game 3.
However, that was last year. Golden State is obviously on a mission this year and obviously a whole lot better with Durant. The old brewers7 would have put money on the Cavs every time in this situational spot. However, I am going to take a pass on the side. I have said in many write-ups this year that Golden State thrives in these situations. The Warriors went into Oklahoma City twice this season in horrible situational spots and won both games going away. I am not going to doubt this Golden State squad again, despite being in yet another bad situational spot.
My postseason record: 16-7 (+$745).
My pick:
Golden State / Cleveland over 58.5, first quarter, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
Good luck.
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