NBA Finals Preview: The Golden State Warriors are attempting to become the first team to go undefeated during the playoffs in NBA history.
#1 Golden State Warriors (82-15) at #2 Cleveland Cavaliers (63-35), Friday, 9 p.m. EST
Line: Warriors -6. Total 228.
Series: Warriors lead 3-0.
The Warriors took Cleveland’s best shot from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving in Game 3 and prevailed 118-113. Golden State outscored the Cavaliers 11-0 in the final three minutes and nine seconds of the game to erase a six-point deficit to win by five points.
The Warriors’ 11-0 run to close the game sounds the death knell for this series. NBA teams up 3-0 in a playoff series are 126-0 in winning those series. What makes a Cleveland comeback even more improbable is the fact that Golden State is 30-1 in their last 31 games. The Warriors are the only team in NBA history to start the postseason 15-0.
This series is basically over. There is no need to review the players’ stats in this series. Kevin Durant is putting up MVP numbers, while Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have been spectacular. LeBron is averaging a triple-double in this series. Irving has been amazing and Kevin Love has been great.
However, the only question left to answer is whether or not Cleveland can extend the series to a fifth game. If not, then the Warriors will become the first team in NBA history to have a perfect postseason.
The talking heads on television are arguing about whether or not LeBron and the Cavs can summon up a prideful performance in Game 4 to avoid the sweep. Some are saying there is extra motivation now for Cleveland because that 16-0 postseason number for the Warriors is being discussed out in the open.
There is a glimmer of hope for the stunned Cleveland fans who are looking for a miracle in this series. In the history of the league, three teams have forced a Game 7 after trailing 3-0 in a playoff series. One of those three instances did occur in the NBA Finals.
Here is a chart of the teams who have accomplished these feats courtesy of nba.com:
| Teams forcing Game 6 after losing first 3 games of a playoff series. | |||||||
| YEAR | TEAM | OPPONENT | PLAY | ||||
| 2007 | Chicago Bulls | Detroit Pistons | Conference Semifinals | ||||
| 2003 | Portland Trail Blazers | Dallas Mavericks | Conference First Round | ||||
| 2000 | Philadelphia 76ers | Indiana Pacers | Conference Semifinals | ||||
| 1996 | Seattle Sonics | Chicago Bulls | NBA Finals | ||||
| 1994 | Denver Nuggets | Utah Jazz | Conference Semifinals | ||||
| 1962 | Detroit Pistons | Los Angeles Lakers | Western Division Finals | ||||
| 1951 | New York Knicks | Rochester Royals | NBA Finals | ||||
| 1949 | Washington Capitols | Minneapolis Lakers | BAA Finals | ||||
| 1947 | Washington Capitols | Chicago Stags | BAA Semifinals | ||||
| Teams forcing Game 7 after losing first 3 games of a playoff series. | |||||||
| YEAR | TEAM | OPPONENT | PLAYOFF ROUND | ||||
| 2003 | Portland Trail Blazers | Dallas Mavericks | Conference First Round | ||||
| 1994 | Denver Nuggets | Utah Jazz | Conference Semifinals | ||||
| 1951 | New York Knicks | Rochester Royals | NBA Finals | ||||
For all the Cavaliers’ fans who prefer to have the glass-is-half-full approach, there may be hope for at least a Game 4 win. If you look at the team statistics for Game 3, the numbers show that the Cavs actually played better in Game 2.
Cleveland outrebounded the Warriors by 14 in Game 2, but had 7 fewer rebounds than Golden State in Game 3. The Cavs had 10 fewer assists and 6 fewer steals in Game 3. The Cavaliers also had 6 fewer fast break points and 22 fewer points in the paint in Game 3.
The biggest difference from Game 2 to Game 3 is that Cleveland relied too heavily on James and Irving. Their star duo took 56 shots in Game 3 compared to 41 shots in Game 2. James and Irving combined for 77 points in Game 3 compared to 48 points in Game 2.
LeBron and Irving combined to play 90 out of a possible 96 minutes in Game 3. Consequently, they were tired in the fourth quarter. The dynamic duo combined to shoot 4-for-12 (33.3%) in the fourth quarter while scoring just 12 points. The Cavs shot 0-for-8 in the final three minutes of the game when they were outscored 11-0.
The point is that Cleveland needs to combine the way they played as a team in Game 2 with the stellar performances that Lebron and Irving had in Game 3. The Cavs played better as a team in Game 2, while King James and Irving were awesome in Game 3. However, those two players carried too much of the load and were gassed down the stretch in Game 3. The Cavaliers cannot rely on LeBron and Irving to carry the entire offense basically going one-on-one, one-on-two or even one-on-three against the Warriors’ defense. Cleveland needs to find another 20 to 25 points from other players.
From a handicapping perspective, things do not look good for Cleveland in Game 4. Here are the numbers for the last 32 years for all teams down 3-0 in a best-of-7 playoff series:
Checking on brewers7’s NBA hypothesis that the Teams that have a 3-0 series lead will close out the series with a sweep in Game 4, I found the following data (SU & ATS):
2016-17: 5-0 SU & 2-0-2 ATS
2015-16: 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS
2014-15: 4-4 SU & ATS
2013-14: 1-1 SU & ATS
2012-13: 3-1 SU & ATS
2011-12: 3-1 SU & 1-3 ATS
2010-11: 2-3 SU & 2-2-1 ATS
2009-10: 4-1 SU & ATS
2008-09: 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS
2007-08: 1-1 SU & ATS
2006-07: 4-1 SU & 1-2-2 ATS
2005-06: 1-0 SU & ATS
2004-05: 3-1 SU & ATS
2003-04: 3-0 SU & ATS
2002-03: 2-1 SU & ATS
2001-02: 1-0 SU & ATS
2000-01: 2-1 SU & ATS
1999-00: 0-2 SU & ATS
1998-99: 4-0 SU & ATS
1997-98: 1-0 SU & ATS
1996-97: 0-1 SU & ATS
1995-96: 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS
1994-95: 1-0 SU & ATS
1993-94: 0-1 SU & 1-0 ATS
1992-93: 1-0 SU & ATS
1991-92: 0-0
1990-91: 1-0 SU & ATS
1989-90: 0-0
1988-89: 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS
1987-88: 0-0
1986-87: 1-1 SU & ATS
1985-86: 1-1 SU & ATS
Last 32 years: 60-24 SU, 71.4% and 50-28-6 ATS, 64.1%.
The Warriors are 3-0 against the Vegas spread this postseason in this situational spot.
One team that lost Game 4 in this spot but covered the Vegas spread as a home dog was the 2007 Cavaliers. LeBron is the only remaining player from that roster. San Antonio won that game 83-82 as a 2-point road favorite to sweep Cleveland. However, more importantly for the betting public, the Cavs covered the spread. Of course, Lebron’s 2007 Cavaliers were not facing this Golden State team.
I think it is going to be mentally difficult for the Cavs to come up off the floor in Game 4 after their devastating loss in Game 3 and stay with the Warriors for 48 minutes. However, as much as I want to, I do not think I can lay 6 or 6.5 points here. Although I probably should considering the winning team has covered the spread in all 16 NBA Finals games these two teams have played against each other.
My postseason record: 17-7 (+$845).
My pick:
No pick as of now. However, I am leaning towards taking the Over in the first quarter again. If I do, I will post it on my Twitter feed, which is @brewers7.
Good Luck.
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