NBA Preview: The Warriors are looking to mirror Cleveland’s path to the conference finals with an 8-0 start to the postseason if they can sweep Utah in Game 4.
#1 Golden State Warriors (74-15) at #5 Utah Jazz (55-37), Monday, 9 p.m. EST
Line: Warriors -8.5. Total 206.5.
Golden State is watching what the Cleveland Cavaliers are doing in the Eastern Conference. The Warriors’ players will deny that they are playing the “monkey see, monkey do” game, but they are taking notice. Their players are taking notice because there is a huge reward they can win if they sweep a series. That reward is rest.
If you watch postgame press conferences, you will hear a common theme from Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue, LeBron James and other players. That theme goes like this: “If we can take care of business and sweep, then we get up to a week’s worth of rest before the next series starts”. The Golden State players and coaches have said the same thing.
So there is motivation for teams to sweep a series when they get the opportunity to do so.
The Jazz are not playing bad in this series. Utah has not been blown out of the water by any stretch of the imagination. The margins of victory have been 12, 11 and 11 for the first three games. One could argue that Game 2 was not a close as the final score. One could argue that Game 3 was very competitive and much closer than that final score indicated.
Golden State has methodically kept the Jazz at bay. Utah has made plenty of runs at Golden State. However, just when you think the Jazz are back in the game (Games 1 and 2) or going to win the game (Game 3), the Warriors go on a run and take back control of the contest.
Golden State is a ticking time bomb. They are a run just waiting to happen. When the timer goes off, so does Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green or any combination thereof.
The Warriors started this series with a 9-0 run at the beginning of Game 1. They had a 26-12 run late in the first quarter into the second quarter. Golden State added another 9-0 run early in the third quarter and a 12-0 run late in the third quarter into the fourth quarter.
In Game 2, the Warriors opened up the game with a 12-3, run while adding a late first quarter run of 14-2. They had another 12-3 run in the third quarter. In Game 3, the Warriors had a 14-3 run late in the third quarter into the fourth quarter and then a decisive 9-0 run late in the fourth quarter.
From a handicapping perspective, it is difficult to lay 8.5 points with Golden State when they have not been that impressive their last six trips into Salt Lake City. The Warriors are 5-1 straight up and 3-3 ATS, but they have yet to win any of those games by more than 11 points. Golden State won by 7 points twice (once in overtime), by 11 points twice and by 3 points once. The Warriors lost by 10 in the other game.
Here is the updated version of my hypothesis from about 12 years ago regarding teams with 3-0 series leads. This update includes the Cavaliers’ win on Sunday in this situational spot. The Cavaliers pushed against the spread in both of their close-out games this playoff season. The Warriors covered the spread in their first-round series in this spot.
Checking on brewers7’s NBA hypothesis that the Teams that have a 3-0 series lead will close out the series with a sweep in Game 4, I found the following data (SU & ATS):
2016-17: 3-0 SU & 1-0-2 ATS 2000-01: 2-1 SU & ATS
2015-16: 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS 1999-00: 0-2 SU & ATS
2014-15: 4-4 SU & ATS 1998-99: 4-0 SU & ATS
2013-14: 1-1 SU & ATS 1997-98: 1-0 SU & ATS
2012-13: 3-1 SU & ATS 1996-97: 0-1 SU & ATS
2011-12: 3-1 SU & 1-3 ATS 1995-96: 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS
2010-11: 2-3 SU & 2-2-1 ATS 1994-95: 1-0 SU & ATS
2009-10: 4-1 SU & ATS 1993-94: 0-1 SU & 1-0 ATS
2008-09: 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS 1992-93: 1-0 SU & ATS
2007-08: 1-1 SU & ATS 1991-92: 0-0
2006-07: 4-1 SU & 1-2-2 ATS 1990-91: 1-0 SU & ATS
2005-06: 1-0 SU & ATS 1989-90: 0-0
2004-05: 3-1 SU & ATS 1988-89: 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS
2003-04: 3-0 SU & ATS 1987-88: 0-0
2002-03: 2-1 SU & ATS 1986-87: 1-1 SU & ATS
2001-02: 1-0 SU & ATS 1985-86: 1-1 SU & ATS
Last 32 years: 58-24 SU (70.7%) and 48-28-6 ATS (63.2%).
The Warriors have only two wins in their last six trips to Utah that would have covered 8.5-point chalk. So I would have to determine whether Utah has enough fight to give Golden State a game and cover that number or whether the Warriors overwhelm the Jazz. Utah would have to get down quickly by double-digits like Portland did to Golden State in the first round. Golden State led 45-22 after the first quarter of Game 4 at Portland. The Warriors went on to win by 25 points to sweep the Blazers.
Stephen Curry is averaging 22.7 points, 5.3 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game, while Kevin Durant is averaging 26.7 points, 4.3 assists and 9.7 rebounds per game in this series. Draymond Green is averaging 15.7 points, 5.7 assists and 8.3 rebounds per game, while Klay Thompson is averaging 11.7 points, 2.7 assists and 3 rebounds per game.
For the Jazz, Gordon Hayward is averaging 24.7 points, 4.7 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game, while Rudy Gobert is averaging 16.7 points and 13 rebounds per game in this series.
George Hill sat out Games 2 and 3 for the Jazz with lingering soreness in his left big toe and is questionable for Game 4. Rodney Hood is listed as probable for Game 4 for Utah.
My postseason record: 14-4 (+$865).
My pick:
No play. A small lean to Golden State as I feel strongly they will win the game. However, I also feel there is a very good chance for Utah to sneak under that 8.5-point Vegas number.
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