NBA Preview: The Warriors are looking to become the first team in NBA history to start the postseason 12-0. Golden State has made a lot of history the past three seasons as they hope to clinch a spot in their third consecutive championship final.
#1 Golden State Warriors (78-15) at #2 San Antonio Spurs (69-28), Monday, 9 p.m. EST
Line: Warriors -11.5. Total 217.5.
Series: Warriors lead 3-0.
There will not be two 12-0 teams meeting in the NBA Finals starting on June 1 due to the Cavs loss Sunday night. The only question now is whether there will be one 12-0 team showing up for the championship finals.
Anything is possible now after Boston shocked the Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena Sunday night 111-108. Boston’s Avery Bradley hit a game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer to lift the Celtics to a stunning victory. Boston trailed by 21 points in the third quarter while reporters were writing their obituary for the series. There could not have been one person watching that game who could have predicted a Celtics win at that juncture. However, the Celtics rallied to outscore Cleveland by 24 points over the final 18 minutes for the win.
The Spurs are unlikely to believe they can come back to win this series with Golden State. Kawhi Leonard is doubtful tonight for San Antonio and the Vegas line indicates that Leonard will not play. It would be foolish for Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich to risk the future health of Leonard at this point of the series. No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a best-of-7 series. In fact, only 9 teams have forced a Game 6 after trailing 3-0 and only three of those teams actually forced a Game 7 before losing.
Here is a chart of the teams who have accomplished these feats courtesy of nba.com:
| Teams forcing Game 6 after losing first 3 games of a playoff series. | |||||||
| YEAR | TEAM | OPPONENT | PLAY | ||||
| 2007 | Chicago Bulls | Detroit Pistons | Conference Semifinals | ||||
| 2003 | Portland Trail Blazers | Dallas Mavericks | Conference First Round | ||||
| 2000 | Philadelphia 76ers | Indiana Pacers | Conference Semifinals | ||||
| 1996 | Seattle Sonics | Chicago Bulls | NBA Finals | ||||
| 1994 | Denver Nuggets | Utah Jazz | Conference Semifinals | ||||
| 1962 | Detroit Pistons | Los Angeles Lakers | Western Division Finals | ||||
| 1951 | New York Knicks | Rochester Royals | NBA Finals | ||||
| 1949 | Washington Capitols | Minneapolis Lakers | BAA Finals | ||||
| 1947 | Washington Capitols | Chicago Stags | BAA Semifinals | ||||
| Teams forcing Game 7 after losing first 3 games of a playoff series. | |||||||
| YEAR | TEAM | OPPONENT | PLAYOFF ROUND | ||||
| 2003 | Portland Trail Blazers | Dallas Mavericks | Conference First Round | ||||
| 1994 | Denver Nuggets | Utah Jazz | Conference Semifinals | ||||
| 1951 | New York Knicks | Rochester Royals | NBA Finals | ||||
So Leonard is not going to play Monday night in all likelihood. Bringing Leonard back now does not make sense because of the sheer improbability of the Spurs making this a competitive series. Besides, San Antonio is playing a team who is 26-1 their last 27 games and 11-0 in the postseason. Golden State has been making a lot of history the last three seasons. The Warriors went 146 games without losing two games in a row. Consequently, you have to go way back to find the last time they lost four straight. Golden State has not lost four games in a row since the 2012-13 season, over 5 years ago.
From a handicapping perspective, it is just a matter of figuring out whether the Spurs are going to quit in Game 4. San Antonio played hard and were in Game 3 because they gave maximum effort and played their guts out. They were up four points after the first quarter. However, the Spurs were down 18 points with 3:30 left in the fourth quarter and lost the game 120-108. Golden State may end up making the Spurs quit by game’s end.
Here is another chart showing the results for how teams do when they are up 3-0 looking for the sweep:
Checking on brewers7’s NBA hypothesis that the Teams that have a 3-0 series lead will close out the series with a sweep in Game 4, I found the following data (SU & ATS):
2016-17: 4-0 SU & 2-0-2 ATS
2015-16: 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS
2014-15: 4-4 SU & ATS
2013-14: 1-1 SU & ATS
2012-13: 3-1 SU & ATS
2011-12: 3-1 SU & 1-3 ATS
2010-11: 2-3 SU & 2-2-1 ATS
2009-10: 4-1 SU & ATS
2008-09: 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS
2007-08: 1-1 SU & ATS
2006-07: 4-1 SU & 1-2-2 ATS
2005-06: 1-0 SU & ATS
2004-05: 3-1 SU & ATS
2003-04: 3-0 SU & ATS
2002-03: 2-1 SU & ATS
2001-02: 1-0 SU & ATS
2000-01: 2-1 SU & ATS
1999-00: 0-2 SU & ATS
1998-99: 4-0 SU & ATS
1997-98: 1-0 SU & ATS
1996-97: 0-1 SU & ATS
1995-96: 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS
1994-95: 1-0 SU & ATS
1993-94: 0-1 SU & 1-0 ATS
1992-93: 1-0 SU & ATS
1991-92: 0-0
1990-91: 1-0 SU & ATS
1989-90: 0-0
1988-89: 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS
1987-88: 0-0
1986-87: 1-1 SU & ATS
1985-86: 1-1 SU & ATS
Last 32 years: 59-24 SU, 71.1% and 49-28-6 ATS, 63.6%
Golden State did cover the spread easily in both of their closeout games this postseason. The Warriors dispatched of the Portland Trail Blazers 128-103 while hammering the Utah Jazz 121-95 in those two closeout games.
Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala are listed as probable while Zaza Pachulia is listed as questionable in Game 4 for Golden State. Leonard is officially listed as doubtful, while David Lee is out with a torn patellar tendon in his left knee for San Antonio.
Cleveland got their wake-up call Sunday night when the Celtics shocked them with a come-from-behind 111-108 win. That may have been a wake-up call for the Warriors, too. There is no room to get complacent in the postseason. The series is not over until you get four wins. The Warriors know this and they also want to get into the NBA Finals undefeated.
So the Warriors have plenty of motivation to finish another series early and get some more rest while they wait for an opponent. I am sure Golden state is rooting for another Boston victory to make that series more interesting and more importantly, to drag it out to at least six games.
My postseason record: 16-7 (+$745).
My pick:
No play. Waiting for the NBA Finals for any more bets this season. Obviously I lean to Golden State to sweep the series and cover the spread and I lean to the Over.
Good Luck.
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