Shelby Miller (5-12, 2.56 ERA) gets the start for the Atlanta Braves (54-81) as they meet Gio Gonzalez (9-7, 4.13 ERA) and the Washington Nationals (69-65) in the third of a four-game series at Nationals Park. The Braves lost the last game 5-2, extending a 10-game losing streak. The game starts at 7:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sep. 5 and will air on FSSO, MASN and MLBN.
In his last start, Gonzalez pitched 6.0 innings, giving up three runs, striking out four and walking two in an 8-5 loss to the Cardinals. Bryce Harper (.333, 98 Rs, 32 HRs, 80 RBIs, 6 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 3 with two runs, one home run, and one RBI. The Braves were unsuccessful the last time Miller pitched. He pitched well, going 7.0 innings, allowing one run and striking out four in a 4-0 loss to the Marlins. Freddie Freeman (.285, 52 Rs, 15 HRs, 50 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Braves, going 3 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Washington is a heavy -200 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. When playing as the favorite, the Nationals have a 55-41 record and overall money line at -1,318. They have performed well against their division to earn an SU record of 30-21 and a 28-16 record when they were the favorite. The Nationals have one of the most prolific offenses in the entire NL, averaging 4.3 runs per game. They have been very patient at the plate, ranking third in the NL with an average of 3.3 walks per game. Washington’s pitchers are doing better against opposing batters during divisional games, only allowing an average of 3.3 runs per game, well under their season average of 4.0. The Nationals don’t give up many walks to opposing batters, leading the NL with only 2.2 walks allowed per game.
On the other side, the Braves have a subpar record of 40-66 when they are the underdog and are -1,694 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 1-9 SU and have a poor 0-5 record when they were an underdog to win. The Braves will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In their 10 most recent games, Atlanta’s run production has dropped to 2.5 runs per game, compared to 4.3 for the duration of the season. Atlanta is one of the top hitting teams in the league with 315 extra base hits. The Braves average just 6.9 strikeouts per game, good for least in the NL. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Atlanta pitchers. They allowed 8.5 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 4.8.
The Nationals have gotten the best of the Braves in head-to-head matchups this season, going 11-3. This game will feature Miller (RHP) on the mound against the Nationals, who have a 51-50 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Braves will be the left-hander Gonzalez. Southpaw starters have been a big issue for them as they sport records of 4-8 on the road and 9-16 overall.
Predictions: SU Winner – Was, O/U – Over
Notes
Atlanta has won 35% (23-42) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Washington has won 53% (33-29) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Braves managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Nationals who are heading in with a 24-11 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 10-57. The Nationals have an 11-55 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 30th in home runs, Atlanta has hit 83 this season. Washington ranks eighth with 144 home runs.
Ranking 11th, Atlanta is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.43 per game. Washington ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 8.48.
Ranking 30th, Atlanta is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.674). Washington ranks in the top half at 11th with an OPS of .730.
The Braves are 21-59 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Nationals are 30-40 when they allow at least one homer.
