Jacob deGrom (12-7, 2.40 ERA) takes the hill for the New York Mets (77-61) as they square off against Stephen Strasburg (8-6, 4.35 ERA) and the Washington Nationals (71-67) in the last of a three-game series at Nationals Park. The Mets won the last game 8-7 and New York leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sep. 9 and can be seen on MAS2, SNY and ESPN.
Strasburg pitched 4.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering four runs and striking out three in a 7-4 defeat to the Marlins. Ryan Zimmerman (.249, 43 Rs, 16 HRs, 73 RBIs, 1 SB) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 5 with one run. deGrom went 6.0 innings, surrendering three runs and striking out four in a 6-5 defeat to the Marlins in his most recent start. Yoenis Cespedes (.297, 94 Rs, 31 HRs, 95 RBIs, 7 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run and three RBIs.
Washington is a -119 favorite against New York and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Nationals have an overall money line of -1,239 and a record as the favorite of 58-42. Washington is an impressive 7-2 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Nationals have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 6.7 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.4 runs per game. Washington’s pitchers put it all together when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game drops to 3.4 against fellow NL East members, compared to its 4.0 season average. The Nationals are the top team in the NL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.2 walks per game so far this season.
As for their opponent, in contrast to an encouraging overall money line (+1,038), New York has an unimpressive 17-37 record when playing as the underdog. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games while playing as the underdog, and have a 5-5 SU record over the same span. Offensively, the Mets have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 5.3 during that stretch. The Mets allow 3.7 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 4.7 runs per game during that span. When it comes to preventing batters from getting on base, the Mets are the best in the league with a WHIP of 1.18 for the season. The Mets have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.1 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Mets lead the season series, 9-6. The Nationals have a 53-50 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when deGrom takes the mound. Strasburg (RHP) will be on the hill against the Mets, who have a 59-48 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Was, O/U – Over
Notes
The Mets won their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Nationals are 19-17. The Mets are 23-23 in close games this season.
The Nationals managed to give up seven walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Mets who are coming in with a 7-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Mets have a slight leg up on the Nationals, as the Mets have won their last two games while the Nationals have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Nationals are 56-9. The Mets have a 54-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 15th in runs, New York has earned 581 this season. Washington ranks seventh with 612 runs.
Ranking 11th, New York is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 409 this season. Washington ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 453.
When the Nationals hit at least one home run, they are 54-34, well-matched with the Mets who are 52-26 when hitting one or more homers.
