Jordan Zimmermann (6-5, 3.16 ERA) and the Washington Nationals (45-36) go up against Ryan Vogelsong (6-6, 4.19 ERA) and the San Francisco Giants (42-40) in the last of a three-game series at Nationals Park. The Giants lost the last game 9-3, extending a five-game losing streak. The game starts at 8:08 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jul. 5 and will air on ESPN.
Zimmermann has a 2.79 ERA and a 5-2 record in his career against the Giants, but is up against a strong San Francisco offense that’s hitting .269 on the year. Bryce Harper (.344, 57 Rs, 25 HRs, 60 RBIs, 3 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 3 for 4 with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs. In his career against the Nationals, Vogelsong is 1-2 with a 6.59 ERA. He meets a solid Washington offense that’s batting .258. Buster Posey (.304, 44 Rs, 14 HRs, 57 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run.
Washington, a -165 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against San Francisco. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at seven runs. The Nationals are 36-25 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -56. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (7-3). Washington’s pitching staff has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game dropped to 2.2 during that span, compared to its 3.9 season average. The Nationals don’t give up many walks to opposing batters, leading the NL with only 2.1 walks allowed per game.
On the other side, the Giants have a record of 22-16 when they are the underdog and are -99 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 4-6 SU and have a poor 0-3 record when they were an underdog to win. San Francisco has been playing better lately, averaging 5.3 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.2. The top hitting team in the NL are the Giants, who average 9.3 hits per game. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the San Francisco batters, who rank third in the NL with 7.3 strikeouts per road game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 2-0 against the Giants. The Nationals will take on a right-hander (Vogelsong) in this game and have a 33-31 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Zimmermann will take the mound against the Giants, who have a 31-32 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – WSH, O/U – Over
Notes
When the Nationals play into extra innings, they have a 5-1 record. The Giants are 3-2 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Giants are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded six strikeouts. The Nationals have a record of 16-8 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Giants are 3-24. The Nationals have an 8-33 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 22nd in home runs, San Francisco has hit 67 this season. Washington ranks 10th with 82 home runs.
San Francisco tops the league in hits with 9.28 per game this season. Washington ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.66.
Washington and San Francisco both rank in the top 10 of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Washington sits at ninth with an OPS of .729 and San Francisco ranks eighth with an OPS of .734.
The Giants are 21-27 when they allow at least one home run. The Nationals perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 16-20 record.
