Washington Wizards versus Atlanta Hawks Eastern Conference Playoff First Round Series preview
The Washington Wizards made quite a turnaround in the first season under Scott Brooks, going from missing the playoffs to the fourth seed without any significant roster additions. The Atlanta Hawks have equally impressed, returning to the playoffs for the 10th consecutive year despite losing their best player in the offseason. Winning a playoff series would definitely mean a good season for either side, and both sides fancy their chances.
#4 Washington Wizards vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks
After losing to Atlanta on the very first day of the season, the Wizards have won the next three meetings to win the series 3-1. It shows a steady progress for the team from the national capital, as they’ve split the series with their division rivals a year ago and lost in the conference semis the year before.
Atlanta still had Korver in the first two games and only the last encounter was played with Wizards’ additions to the bench.
All the games were played with both teams under full strength.
Regular season results:
10/27/16 ATL 114 – WAS 99
11/04/16 WAS 95 – ATL 92
01/27/17 ATL 86 – WAS 112
03/22/17 WAS 104 – ATL 100
Either team has covered two times, but it was quite a change in the team ratings. Atlanta went from a 4 point favorite in the opener to a 7.5 point underdog in mid March.
The Hawks have topped 100 points mark only once and that was the lone over in the regular season series, but the expectancy rose from 202.5 total points in the first game to 215.5 in the last one.
In the first game of this series, the Wizards starters outplayed the Hawks to take the all important 1-0 lead, but the Hawks shot themselves in the foot by numerous turnovers and a bad third quarter when they allowed the Wizards to get in transition and score 38 points.
John Wall starred for the home team, while Hawks’ stars left a lot to be desired.
Playoff results and schedule:
Game 1 – ATL 107 @ WAS 114 – (4/16/17, Sunday)
Game 2 – ATL @ WAS (Wednesday 4/19/17, 7:00 PM ET – NBATV )
Game 3 – WAS @ ATL (Saturday 4/22/17, 5:30 PM ET – TNT)
Game 4 – WAS @ ATL (Monday 4/24/17, 8:00 PM ET – TNT)
Game 5 – ATL @ WAS (Wednesday 4/26/17 – IF NEEDED)
Game 6 – WAS @ ATL (Friday 4/28/17 – IF NEEDED)
Game 7 – ATL @ WAS (Sunday 4/30/17 – IF NEEDED)
Wizards in the rearview mirror
Despite the coaching change, the Wizards did not see and immediate improvement. They still pushed the ball with Wall, played some pick and roll with Gortat and found Beal for the three ball. More importantly, they didn’t improve on the defensive end.
After back to back losses to start the new year, Washington was 16-18. Over the next 40 days, the Wizards found their groove and won 18 of the following 21 games to enter the post All-Star week period in secure playoff position. By that time, it was very clear that the Wizards need to improve their second unit if they are serious about this season, so they acquired backcourt duo of Brandon Jennings and Bojan Bogdanovic. It was a weird choice as neither of the two plays both sides of the ball and are erratic on offense at times. Neither had much of an impact so far, at least not a positive one.
The Wizards remain a top 5 offensive team and the bottom 10 defense, so they look to score more points than their opponents each time. They’ve established quite a stronghold of their arena, losing only 11 games there all season.
Washington Wizards Betting Trends:
ATS Score: 43-39-1
Over/under Score: 52-31
Hawks in the rearview mirror
The Atlanta Hawks have had an up and down season in the true meaning of that phrase. They opened up the season with a 9-2 record, but followed with 6-14 to find themselves below the .500 mark on Christmas. 17-7 record during the next period had them 9 games over the same mark by Valentine’s Day, only to finish the season with a 11-16 stretch.
It’s hard to pinpoint a reason, as the Hawks enjoyed a fairly good health to their main players and they won and lost to good and bad teams during each of the periods. Such inconsistencies are mostly a sign of a bad team, but the Hawks managed to leave many teams behind them in the standings. They did profit from letting Teague go and developing Schroder, but couldn’t replace Horford, despite going with the big name in Howard.
By the midpoint of the season, they created the buzz around the league that they could blow things up and trade Millsap and others, but ended up sending Korver to the champions and bringing in veterans Ilyasova, Dunleavy and Calderon to try to compete in the postseason.
Atlanta Hawks Betting Trends:
ATS Score: 39-44
Over/under Score: 33-48-2
Matching them up
Few teams can match with the Washington Wizards prized guard duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal, and Atlanta is not among those. Schroder has a quick step on offense, but hasn’t played with equal quickness on defense and the other guard, whether it’s Hardaway Jr. or Sefolosha, is not on the same stage as Beal.
The Hawks should have their way on the interior, with Millsap and Howard, aided by lengthy Bazemore and Ilyasova, but that’s not a significant advantage after Millsap. Neither team has more than just a solid wings, but the lower seed have more useful players and deeper bench.
Porter and young Oubre are the only Wizards players that bother to play defense. Wall can impress on occasion, too.
Series prediction
Washington in 5.
The Wizards have the best player in the series and a better starting unit. As the bench time shrinks during the postseason, the better for them. They’ve shown enough progress to advance past a below-average team like Atlanta Hawks, who did too well to reach this far.
With strong home advantage in Washington, all they need to do is take one in Georgia to finish the series quickly.
Series MVP
John Wall. Despite his star status, Wall is still an underrated player. He can take on any defender, or more of them, and create for himself, but also has a perfect sense on when to distribute the ball and when to attack himself. He added a reliable jump stop midrange jumper to keep defenses honest, making him a double threat.
X-factor
Marcin Gortat. It’s weird to pick a player who can change a series from a probable winner of the series, but Polish Hammer is a player who can rise to occasion but also look lost. He’s also the only thing of size the Wizards have in the paint, so his play could be crucial between a quick and a lengthy series.
