The Milwaukee Bucks will look to bounce back from a disappointing performance and a defeat to Dallas against the visiting Washington Wizards, an Eastern conference foe with issues of their own, and coming over from Canada where they play the night before.
Wizards at Bucks
Spread: Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 207 points (-110)
Washington starting a challenging three week period
The Wizards suffered a disappointing home loss to the Miami Heat just two nights after defeating them at home, suffering from the worst half of the season. They tried to storm back from a 29-54 first-half deficit but ended up short. There’s no time to reflect on the loss though, as they face the Toronto Raptors tonight, and they might have to do it without their leader John Wall, who is considering sitting out a period after an injury to his knee has limited his motion and efficiency on the court.
I’ve already reviewed the Wizards game against Miami as a part of Toronto game preview (seek it out here on the website in case you missed it), so let’s dig deeper into the stats this time. The Wizards are winning by an average of 5.1 points per game, a premier number. However, the most of it comes from blowing out Sacramento twice and handily defeating Atlanta and Lakers. They’ve also lost to Dallas, Lakers, and Phoenix, as they played one of the easiest schedules so far. They’ve improved their shooting to a solid 46.4 percent, and have been hitting threes at 36.2 percent rate. Both of these percentages put them in the middle third of the pack. What has propelled them towards the fourth place in the conference, was their defense, statistically speaking. Still, it also comes with the note that they’ve faced some of the most futile offenses, but the effort to improve on this side of the court is visible. Bradley Beal is having an All-Star type of a season so far with 24.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg and 3.4 apg, while shooting 47.3 percent from the field. Wall is never going to be an efficient scorer, but he still has a good season so far with 19.9 points and 9.3 assists on average. Otto Porter is becoming a true star of his own, leading the team in FG%, 3PT% , and steals, while grabbing 7.1 rebounds and scoring 16.1 points. It’s a big drop-off after those three, as other players mostly regressed compared to the last season.
Wall is dealing with a fluid buildup in his left knee and decided not to play in Toronto making him automatically questionable to suit up for this game as well. The Wizards play 12 games in the next 22 days, 10 of which on the road. They come into Milwaukee on a late night flight from Toronto, where they’ll meet the Raptors today.
Place: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Date/Time: Monday, November 20th, 2017. 8:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: Fox Sports Wisconsin, NBCSWA
Milwaukee embarrassed in Big D, snap win streak
When I’ve said that the Bucks being a 7.5 favorite in Dallas is b.s., I certainly didn’t imagine that they’ll come out of it with a 79-111 loss. They may have failed to match preseason expectations in other games, but this was clearly their worst performance of the season.
Milwaukee had won all four games since Bledsoe’s arrival before this loss, so it’s quite possible that they underestimated the opposition for their poor record. They came out flat and played worse as the game went on. The stalled offense led to lazy defense and the body language was just poor overall. Despite Kidd warning his players of the dangers Mavs’ three-point heavy offense brings, they were slow to react or wouldn’t even bother run out to the shooters. The Mavericks made them pay. Dallas didn’t just make a lot of three-pointers. They made more than any Bucks opponent in the franchises’ 50-year history. The Mavericks knocked down 19 three-pointers on 38 attempts, making one more than the previous record against the Bucks. While everything was falling for the Mavericks, the Bucks never got into any offensive flow. They went 28 of 74 from the field for a season-low 38.4% shooting percentage. Milwaukee couldn’t buy a bucket from behind the arc, going 6 of 25 (24%). Giannis Antetokounmpo, the NBA’s leader in player efficiency rating, had 24 points and 15 rebounds in the loss but had his second-worst shooting game of the season at 7 of 20 from the floor. Khris Middleton had 23 points on 9 of 12 shooting, and no other Bucks player scored in double figures. The ball didn’t move, evidenced by a season-low 13 assists. Bench was awful.
Backups Teletovic and Dellavedova missed the last two games and their absence hurt the Bucks’ depth but wasn’t the decisive moment in either. It’s unclear whether they’ll return to the floor in this game or not.
Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks Game Trends & Prediction
Not counting the tonight’s matchup with the Raptors in Toronto, the Wizards are 8-7 against the spread and 4-0 as an underdog. They are also much more successful when playing outside Washington, 5-1 to start the season. Most of this success stems from the improved defense on the road, which has also resulted in far more frequent unders. The Wizards are 5-10 on O/U overall and 1-5 away from home.
The Bucks fell to 6-7-2 against the spread with no covers in the last two games. Both games stayed below the projected total lines and four of their last five also played under, bringing their record to 7-8. The Bucks are 3-5 against the O/U at home and 1-6 in the last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Admi-Rank: The Wizards have maybe been a bit over-criticised for not reaching their full potential, but they are solid, the steady team compared to others. The Bucks function is more sine-like. They have highs and lows, and the loss to Dallas is certainly a sign of a potential big slide. They have to shake it off quickly.
The Bucks should better be ready for the game, or Kidd will let them know at halftime. On the other hand, the fluctuations are normal for them. They are a very young team and they’ve gone through a big change just 14 days ago. The Wizards are preaching stability and it has worked for them for the most part, but high reliance on their top players also leads to problems when they are forced to sit out. It’s still not clear how long will Wall rest, but as long as he is out, the Wizards will not be as good and will struggle to win games. This is why I am taking the Bucks to cover the spread and take the win. I will pass on the total.
My Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 (-110)
Total: pass
